10/12/2014: Russian CDS: Not a Happy Day

While Ukraine CDS were the worst performing worldwide today (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/12/10122014-ukraine-greece-cds-flash-red.html) Russian CDS were also under pressure.

As noted by @Schuldensuehner Russian CDS reached above 402 and the implied 5 year cumulative probability of default rose to 24%.

Here's updated chart plotting evolution of Russian and Ukrainian CDS:

There is a strong negative relationship between the price of oil and Russian CDS:

So with oil dipping below USD65/bbl today, things were bound to get touchy.

3/12/2014: Russia, Ukraine CDS are climbing

As twitted earlier, Russia is figuring at the top of the daily movers charts in CDS markets today with its sovereign CDS spread on Germany up at 378.45 rising 6.36% d/d (+22.64bps) with current cumulative 5-year probability of default estimated at 22.76%.

Ukraine made it to number 3 in today's moves with its stats far far worse: 5 year spread at an eye-opening 1,779.20 bps up 3.01% d/d (+51.99 bps) and cumulative 5-year probability of default at 67.53%.

Big jumps for both on last week's close:

And massive jumps compared to Q1 2014:

(click on the chart to enlarge)
Note: all data via S&P Capital IQ

No comment on the data.