8/12/16: Democratic Party: The Eraser of Middle Class Vote?

More of the same didn't cut it for the American middle class this November, ... and so the Obama voters went to the Republicans, as Hillary Clinton failed to impress onto the middle class any sort of vision they can relate to.

Per Pew Research, out of 57 'solidly middle-class areas' examined, "In 2016, Trump successfully defended all 27 middle-class areas won by Republicans in 2008. In a dramatic shift, however, Hillary Clinton lost in 18 of the 30 middle-class areas won by Democrats in 2008."

So the "deplorables" turned out to be middle-class voters and they clearly heard Hillary Clinton applying a new descriptive term to them. The term they did not quite embrace.

Now, if I were an adviser to the Democratic Party, I would start by putting its leaders in front of a mirror and ask them to point out every little wrinkle and crease in their faces that makes them so publicly loath middle-class as to endorse a candidate that called them 'deplorables'. Step one of the multi-year journey toward rebuilding the party will then be accomplished.

Rest of Pew Research analysis here.

13/7/16: Xenophobic Britain, Good Europe Mythology

You know the shrill of the deeply wounded 'Remain' supporters from the UK Referendum that did not go their way? Ah, yes: "Older Britain, that won, is xenophobic, racist, anti-migrant. And the young Britain, that lost, is the opposite of that."

Ok, there are stereotypes. And then there are stereotypes. The 'old Britain' that is allegedly such a terrible place is the one that built one of the most multicultural societies in the world. That's right: the young Britain was not even born when that happened.

But never mind history, here's the most current (1Q 2016) data on attitudes to multiculturalism from the not-so-pro-Brexit source, PewResearch:

By opposition to multi-ethnic society, the UK ranks 5th in the group of these countries, tied with on-so-progressively-liberal Germany, and better than core-European-values Italy and Holland, ahead of the beacon of European democracy Poland. By actual support for multi-ethnicity in society, the UK ranks third, ahead of all other European countries in the survey other than Sweden.

Of course, the U.S. leads all the countries in terms of support for multi-ethnic society. Not surprisingly.

Here's another interesting snapshot from the same study:

So if we are to look at the Left-Right gap, the UK is at the widest differential in opinions on diversity in Europe. But, and here is a major but, with 27% of Conservatives (Right) supporting diversity, it has the most 'liberal' Right in Europe after Sweden. Oh, and notice the little blow up for the 'xenophobic Republicans in the U.S.' meme - that too is absolute bullshit, since U.S. conservatives are more supportive of ethnic diversity liberal / Left Europeans except those in Sweden and the UK.


You can glimpse few more insights into the Pew survey here: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/12/in-views-of-diversity-many-europeans-are-less-positive-than-americans/.

8/5/2014: Pew Research on Public Opinion of Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Pew Research are providing some interesting data on public opinion in Ukraine relating to country geopolitical 'drift': http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2014/05/Pew_Global_Attitudes_Ukraine-Russia_Report_FINAL_May_8_2014.pdf

"Most Ukrainians have soured on Russia, with many saying Russia is having a negative influence in their country and that it is more important for Ukraine to have strong ties with the European Union. Nonetheless, Ukrainians are divided in their evaluations of the influence of western nations in their country and express doubts about German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s and U.S. President Barack Obama’s handling of foreign affairs. In addition, Russian-speakers in the east, as well as residents of Crimea, have greater confidence in Russia than either the EU or the U.S."

The significance of this can be overstated (sample is only 1,659 adults or understated (given the immense degree of uncertainty in the current situation, the divide between Western and Eastern Ukraine is striking).

In relation to the role the West-East division plays in the crisis going forward, since the past is now likely to remain the past:

So here is a series of tweets I sent out over the last two days that explain my view of the 'next step' strategy that might be playing out in Ukraine:

Starts:

My replies:

Also, in reply to today's announcement from Donetsk that pro-Russian separatists intend to continue pushing for a referendum despite Moscow standing down on one (read from bottom up):

14/5/2013: The Sick Man of Europe is... Europe

An excellent set of stats on the decline of public legitimacy of the EU between 2012 and 2013 from Pew Research: http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/05/13/the-new-sick-man-of-europe-the-european-union/

Certainly worth a read and confirms similar trends captured by other surveys.