26/7/15: That Seagull Flock Model of Public Governance: The Banking Inquiry

Second, following the previous post on Nama, is the Banking Inquiry news:

The Banking Inquiry also has now adopted the Seagull Model for public transparency and governance: there are scandals and tantrums left, right and centre of the political spectrum. The gig is, of course, less of a maritime evocation as it is with Nama, and more of the landfill nature, but you get the picture.

Some chronology on the matters at hand:

• Back in mid-July there were reports that a whistleblower - someone working for the Inquiry - came forward in April 2015 with the allegations that "relate to alleged preferential treatment which the whistleblower feels was given in the workings of the investigation team to the Central Bank and the Department of Finance. It is suggested the Central Bank insisted on a whole series of redactions in documents that it supplied. It is also being suggested that the Central Bank, at a critical point, was allowed a lengthy meeting with the lead investigator." Now, for those who do not know this, the Inquiry has two teams of 'advisers' - one that goes over submitted evidence and distills it to the members of the Inquiry - as far as we know, that team is composed of the Oireachtas employees - and another that prepares questions to be put forward by the members - which includes former banks and finance sector employees. Note: this is an important bit for the subsequent link on the matter from today.
• Sunday Times a week ago also carried some details of the whistleblower allegations, specifically alleging that a number of undocumented meetings took place between the Central Bank, Nama and senior investigators on the banking inquiry. Other sources also include Department of Finance into the august list of entities allegedly granted unprecedented access to pre-brief the inquiry investigators. The same Sunday Times article also claims that: "It is understood allegations have also been made to Marc MacSharry, a Fianna Fail senator and inquiry member, that a second investigator quit the banking inquiry team on May 13 this year, citing concerns similar to those raised by the whistleblower."
• Check the timeline: April 27 whistleblower allegations filed, May 13 another Inquiry official resigns on similar concerns, July 15 whistleblower allegations are leaked to press, July 23 inquiry into allegations set up. Things become swift, in Ireland, only after the media gets the news. Never before.

• So on foot of the publicly leaked allegations, it was decided to do the most Irish of All Things and… hold and Inquiry into the Banking Inquiry.  As an aside, while the previous FF/GP/PDs governments can be collectively accused of having Leadership by Quangos fetish, the current one can be assigned a monicker of Leadership by Inquiries.
• And, in a typical Irish fashion, the Inquiry into the Inquiry (shall we call it IiI here?) will have terms of reference that will include hunting down the wrongdoing of leaking the allegations to the media. As reported here: "The Oireachtas tonight released the terms of reference for Mr Allen’s investigation. He will investigate allegations that false information was given to Oireachtas Committee members, and preferential treatment was given to certain witnesses. The investigation will also look at alleged conflicts of interest that it is claimed were not appropriately handled by the inquiry’s investigation team. Mr Allen will also be required to examine the allegations in the context of the legislation underpinning the Bank Inquiry. The leaking of information to a journalist named by the whistleblower will also form part of the investigation." We can get a good sense of where the findings will go: a new battle between politicos and journos. There will be war… 
• But, fear not: we already have one outcome of the whistle blowing scandal: the whistleblower has been punished. Per same report "The whistleblower’s pay has been suspended since last week after, it is claimed, they refused a transfer from a section within the Banking Inquiry." That should teach everyone a lesson: Ireland tolerates no whistle blowing. Never did and never will. Get over it, folks, and keep on pretending we have a modern society with all the trappings of transparency and ethics. This was confirmed in the Irish Times report here: "After the allegations were made, the whistleblower claims that their duties as an investigator were transferred on April 27th. A “false announcement of my resignation” was made during the week beginning June 1st, and their desk was cleared. Notification of their salary being suspended was received on July 15th."
• Of course the irony is that back in March, the Inquiry heard from Dr Elaine Byrne that whistleblowers need not only be protected, but rewarded for their actions. Ah, yes… back to Ireland, thus...

• Last week, the Irish Times carried some select excerpts from the whistleblower communication. These are worth reading: "The whistleblower claims that the terms of reference for a review of the allegations to be carried out for the Houses of the Oireachtas Service by Senior Counsel Senan Allen while including consideration of the claim that certain participants received favourable treatment do not detail or substantiate the allegations which include “off-the-record telephone calls and meetings” and “improper pressure on certain investigators to exclude certain relevant witnesses”.” It is also alleged that there was “significant ongoing and detailed leaking of information by a certain investigator” to a national newspaper. And the whistleblower claims that they were “routinely instructed to disregard redacted material” emanating from an unnamed institution, which “in my view could have proven to be extremely relevant to the proper processing of the investigation”. The “instructions were relayed to me by superiors and included instructions to inform the Joint Committee of Inquiry that participants had complied with matters related to compelled documentation, when in my view, participants were not compliant”. The “participants” are believed to be the Central Bank of Ireland and the Department of Finance." And further: "The whistleblower claims they were prevented from engaging in “basic investigative work and from exploring valid lines of inquiry”. “I am extremely concerned that the timeframe given to Senan Allen to conduct this investigation will ultimately lead, particularly in light of the limited terms of reference and in conjunction with the limited term period for a review, to a sub-standard and wholly inadequate review that will not broach the complexity of the allegations raised by me,” the whistleblower added. “Furthermore, the terms of reference are silent on the requirement to investigate the origin, publication and distribution of the false and defamatory statements made about me in an official report dated May 6th produced by the Houses of the Oireachtas service.”

All of this brings us to the latest round of revelations from the Banking Inquiry published today in the Indo. Ah, the pearls include:

• That "Morgan Kelly, Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, who notably predicted the property collapse, has turned down an invitation to appear before the inquiry." Frankly, why am I surprised? Why would anyone be surprised. Morgan is a serious scholar and has little time for the farcical performances. 
• And then there is the controversy over political hissy fits triggered by the offer from David Drumm to testify on the matters of his recollection of the meetings with former Taoiseach Brian Cowen. Which I covered yesterday here.
• For the last bit, the juiciest fare so far: "…the whistleblower has claimed this investigator, who was deciding what documents from the banks should be entered in evidence, secured a new job with the Bank of Ireland while working for the inquiry. The whistleblower was "shocked" when it was decided to allow the investigator work out his notice period with the same access to bank documents after he had accepted the Bank of Ireland job offer." 

Oh dear… Where does one go from this? To 2016 headlines about some Inquiry staff getting cushy jobs in the state bodies with allegedly cushy relationships with the Inquiry?.. What is next for the Cosy Planet 'Ireland'?

4/11/2014: Prosperity Index 2014: Ireland's Reforms Failing to Produce Strong Socio-Economic Results

Today, Prosperity.com (http://www.prosperity.com/#!/) are publishing the 2014 Legatum Prosperity Index which offers cross-countries' comparable data on how economic, social and governance conditions define socio-economic prosperity around the world.

According to the index methodology, "traditionally, a nation’s prosperity has been based solely on macroeconomic indicators such as a country’s income, represented either by GDP or by average income per person (GDP per capita). However, most people would agree that prosperity is more than just the accumulation of material wealth, it is also the joy of everyday life and the prospect of being able to build an even better life in the future. The Prosperity Index is distinctive in that it is the only global measurement of prosperity based on both income and wellbeing."

This post covers my analysis of the Legatum data for Ireland compared to our European peers, covering two peer groups:

• Advanced and highly competitive small open economies within the euro area, including Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Slovak Republic (SOE EA) and
• Advanced and highly competitive small open economies outside the euro area, including Switzerland, Denmark, Iceland and Norway (SOE ex-EA).
• Both peer groups are represented by the simple average ranks achieved in 2012-2014 period.

Overall, 2014 Prosperity Index ranks Ireland as 12th most prosperous nation in the world and 8th in the European region (combining 40 countries). This means that Irish rankings remained unchanged on 2013 levels both globally and within Europe. Over 2013-2014, Ireland's rankings deteriorated by 2 place worldwide.

This is an impressive ranking for Ireland placing us 5 ranks ahead of other small open economies in the euro area countries, SOE (EA), but lagging the average ranking of the ex-euro area small open economies (SOE ex-euro) by 7 places. Significantly, while similarly to Ireland's average ranking for SOE (EA) economies has deteriorated over 2012-2014, the average ranking of SOE ex-Euro group has improved. The gap between Ireland's rank in 2014 and the average rank for non-euro area SOE has widened to 7 points compared to 3 points in 2012 and 6 points in 2013.

Very similar dynamics in Ireland's performance are also evident in almost all of the eight sub-categories of the rankings.

While Irish global ranking in the economy sub-category improved from 33rd in 2013 to 29th this year, the latest ranking remains significantly worse than 2012 Index position (25th). For our peers within euro area, average rankings in 2012-2014 were 21st, 28th and 27th, respectively - a slightly better performance than Ireland's. Meanwhile, our peers' average rankings for SOE ex-euro area have consistently improved from 21st in 2012 to 17th in 2013 to 14th in 2014. Despite the officially-registered booming GDP and GNP growth, Ireland still lags behind both the advanced euro area small open economies average and ex-euro area economies average.

The gap between Ireland's rankings (2012-213 at 14th place, 2014 at 16th place worldwide) in Entrepreneurship and Opportunities sub-category and the performance of the ex-euro area SOE group (average rank of 5th in every year between 2012 and 2014) is getting wider. Significantly, after several years of talking up targeted entrepreneurship policies reforms, Ireland is showing deteriorating performance in this sub-index, with our world wide position falling from better than euro area average 14th place in 2013 to 16th (matching the exact average for the SOE euro area economies) in 2014.

Another area targeted by numerous structural policies in recent years is institutional and governance reforms. 2014 Legatum Prosperity Index ranks Ireland 14the in the world in quality of governance - with no change in the rank on 2012 and 2013 levels. Despite much of an effort to clean up and improve Irish institutional systems, our rankings show identical dynamics as that of our euro area peers. Meanwhile, our non-euro area peers' performance has improved from the average 9th rank in 2012 and 2013 to the average 7th rank in 2014. While slightly outperforming the SOE euro area average ranks (16th), Ireland's gap to non-euro area SOEs has widened from 5 places in 2012-2013 to 7 places in 2014.

In terms of core public services, such as health and education, the picture is more mixed. In education sub-category of the 2014 Legatum Prosperity Index, Ireland ranks respectable 8th, which represents an improvement on 2013 and 2012 positions (11th and 14th respectively). Here we outperform our euro are and non-euro area peers, although the gap in favour of Ireland to non-euro area peers group is closing, falling from 5 places in 2013 to 2 places in 2014 rankings. In contrast, in health services, Ireland's performance is rapidly deteriorating in absolute and relative terms. In 2012-2014, our euro area peers average rank stayed stable at 12th. Ditto for our non-euro area peers, whose average rank remains steady at the 9th place worldwide. Ireland's global rankings slipped significantly, from 11th place in 2013 to 15th in 2013 and 17th in 2014. If in 2012 we outperformed our euro area peers' average by 1 place, in 2014 Ireland showed an underperformance relative to this group of 8 ranks.

2014 Legatum Prosperity Index covers three sub-categories of social performance parameters: Personal Freedom, Social Capital, and Safety and Security. In all of these, with exception of Safety and Security sub-category, Ireland's performance has deteriorated over 2012-2014 horizon in absolute terms, and relative to non-euro area small open economies. On a positive side, our performance relative to the euro area peers remains robust.

While Legatum Prosperity Index rankings are not comparable across 2009-2011 and 2012-2014 years, actual index scores offer some indication of our performance in absolute terms in 2014 period compared to 2009-2011. Chart below shows changes in the index and sub-categories in 2014 compared to peak performance in 2009-2011.

All sub-scores that form the overall Prosperity Index are showing poorer performance in 2014 compared to their peak performance in 2009-2011 period. Index scores are reflective of country own performance, as opposed to country ranks which show relative performance compared to other countries covered in the surveys. As the chart above clearly indicates, in all sub-categories of the Legatum Prosperity Index, Ireland performs poorer today than in 2009-2011. Aside from the economic performance deterioration, Ireland's scores suffered significant declines in health, personal freedom, governance and education - all areas targeted by public sector reforms enacted by the current Coalition.

To summarise: while overall rankings for Ireland present a rather positive picture of our socio-economic institutions and environment compared to other euro area small open economies, two major concerns warrant significant attention of our policymakers:

1. Ireland remains relative under performer compared the non-euro area small open economies with our gap to this peer group average ranks and scores widening in 2014 compared to 2013 and 2012.
2. Ireland's reforms are not appearing to yield positive returns compared to 2009-2011 performance across all sub-categories of the index.

Reforms, including structural reforms, enacted from 2012 to-date have broadly failed to significantly alter the our socio-economic competitiveness compared to our core peers.