27/8/2014: Irish Migration Trends by Nationality: 2014

In the previous post I covered aggregate migration and population data for Ireland for 2014 (data coverage is 12 months through April 2014). The post is available here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2014/08/2782014-migration-population-change-in.html?spref=tw

Now, as promised earlier, lets take a look at the decomposition of the migration data.

First, net migration by nationality:

• Total emigration from Ireland in 12 months through April 2014 stood at 81,900, which is down from 89,000 in the same period 2013 (a decline of 7,100). This marks the first year of decrease in emigration since 2011.
• 40,700 Irish nationals emigrated from Ireland in 12 months through April 2014, down 10,200 on the same period of 2013 and marking the first slowdown in outflows since 2008. Latest rate of emigration for Irish nationals is the lowest reading since 2010.
• Over the 12 months though April 2014, 2,700 UK nationals emigrated from Ireland - which represents a decline in emigration rate for this group of residents of 1,200 y/y. However, this decline was more than off-set by the rise in emigration of 'Rest of EU-15' residents which rose 4,100 y/y to 14,000 in the 12 months through April 2014. 
• The rate of emigration from Ireland for EU12 Accession states nationals slowed down from 14,000 in 12 months through April 2013 to 10,100 in 12 months through April 2014.
• For non-EU nationals, the rate of emigration has accelerated to 14,400 in the 12 months through April 2014 from 10,300 in the same period of 2013.

Thus, for the fifth year in a row, Irish nationals represented the largest group of emigrants from Ireland by total numbers. However, if in 2011-2013 Irish nationals represented more than 50% of the total emigration numbers, in 2014 this fell to 49.7%.

Net emigration figures, however, were less encouraging for the Irish nationals.

• Total net emigration from Ireland stood at 21,400 in 12 months through April 2014, down from 33,100 in April 2013.
• Irish nationals' net emigration rate was running at 29,200 in the 12 months through April 2014, down from 35,200 in 2013, but still above the rate recorded for any other year since 2006.
• In contrast with the trend for the Irish nationals, UK nationals posted another year of rising net immigration into Ireland: 2,200 more UK nationals now reside in the country compared 1,000 more in 2013. Rest of EU-15 group posted an increase in the rate of net emigration from Ireland in 2014 (-5,300) compared to 2013 (-2,500). This made 2014 the worst year for net emigration of this group out of Ireland on record.
• Net emigration of the EU12 Accession states nationals fell to its lowest crisis-period level of 200 in 2014, down from 3,200 in 2013.
• Non-EU nationals recorded net immigration rate of 11,200 in 2014 which represents the highest rate on record (since 2006).

Chart below shows cumulated changes in migration over the period of 2008-2014:

27/8/2014: Migration & Population Change in Ireland: 2014 data

Population and migration estimates for the 12 months period through April 2014 have been finally released by the CSO with a lag of some 4 months. The figures show some marginal improvement in the underlying trends compared to the disastrous 2013, but overall the situation remains bleak.

Let's start with top level figures first and deal with compositional details in the subsequent post.

Births numbers have fallen to the levels last seen in 2007, from 70,500 in 2013 to 67,700 in 2014. Improving labour market and deteriorating personal finances are more likely behind the trend: the former means lower incentives to stay out of labour market and lower incentives to take maternity leave protection, while the latter means increased pressure to generate second income in the family, which is, of course, automatically associated with having to pay extortionate childcare costs. Whatever the drivers are, this is the births rate peaked in 2010 and has been declining since, neatly tracing out labour markets developments. 2014 marks the first year since 2007 that the rate is below 70,000.

Deaths are running at the rate proximate to 2013 and not far off from 2012. This means that the Natural Increase in population has slowed down to 37,900 in 2014 from 40,800 in 2013 and this marks the lowest natural rate of increase since 2006 and the first sub-40,000 rate of increase since 2007.

Immigration rose in 12 months through April 2014 to 60,600 from 55,900 in the 12 months through April 2013. 2014 figure is the highest since 2009. Emigration declined to 81,900 in 2014 against 89,000 in 2013. This is the lowest level of emigration since 2011 when outflow of migrants from the country was running at 80,600.

Net emigration also moderated in 12 months through April 2014, declining from 2013 level of 33,100 to 2014 figure of 21,400. This marks the lowest net emigration rate for the entire crisis period. Which is, undoubtedly, good news. Bad news, we are still in net emigration mode.

With slower rate of net emigration outflows, net change in Irish resident population was positive in 12 months through April 2014, recording an increase of 16,500 y/y, compared to 7,700 rise in 12 months through April 2013.

A chart to illustrate:

Meanwhile, cumulated 2009-2014 emigration amounted to 479,800, cumulated net emigration for the same period amounted to 142,200. These are actual figures recorded. Taking into the account the trends in Irish migration over 2000-2007 period, the 'opportunity cost' of the crisis is the *net* loss of some 521,000 residents relative to where the population could have been were the trends established in 2000-2007 to remain in place.

A chart to illustrate:

As the result of the above changes in actual migration and natural rate of increases in population, we have the following changes in the working and non-working age populations:

• Working-age (20-64 year olds) population stood at 2,728,300 as of the end of April 2014, down 14,500 on a year ago and down 64,200 on 2008.
• As percentage of the total population, working-age population is now standing at 59.2%, the lowest for any period since 2006.
• Non-working age population is up 31,300 to 1,881,600 in 2014 compared to 2013 and up 188,900 on 2008.
• Non-working age population now stands at 40.8%, up on 40.3% in 2013 and the highest for any period since 2006.

Charts to illustrate:

18/8/2013: A Baby Recession for Europe?

An interesting and forward looking study from the Eurostat on the demographic fallout from the current crisis predicting a so-called 'baby recession' in Europe. The paper is downloadable here: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-13-013/EN/KS-SF-13-013-EN.PDF

The main thesis is that "Fertility is commonly assumed to follow the economic cycle, falling in periods of recession and vice-versa, though scientific evidence is still not unanimous on this. This report looks at fertility trends in 31 European countries against selected indicators of economic recession… in 31 European countries, the economic crisis spread in 2009, while decreases in fertility became a common feature in Europe with a time lag. … In 2008, there were no falls in the rate compared to the previous year, but by 2011, the TFR had declined in 24 countries."

TFR refers to the total fertility rate.

All of this sounds reasonable, and there are some signs that fertility rates might be signaling a crisis-related decline and that such a decline might be coming. However, there is a slight hick up in the data on a number of fronts:

1. The average TFR is running at 1.595% for the 31 countries sample in 2010-2011 against 2000-2009 average of 1.527%. In other words, the decline is not evident so far, except in one year of 2011.
2. On country-average for 2000-2009 period, 11 out of 31 countries have been running ahead of average. In 2010-2011 period, same 11 countries run ahead of 31 countries-average. So there is no compositional change on under-performance relative to average.
3. Over 2010-2011, TFR average for countries was ahead of 2000-2009 average for 24 out of 31 countries. 
4. Countries that saw TFR decline from average for 2000-2009 to lower average for 2010-2011 were: Cyprus (not in crisis in 2008-2011), Luxembourg (not in crisis in 2008-2011), Hungary (in a crisis), Malta (not in crisis), Portugal (in crisis), Romania (in crisis), Latvia (in crisis), suggesting a very mixed evidence on the links between TFR and crisis to-date.
5. The weak link is further reinforced by the fact that other crisis-hit countries have fared much better in terms of TFR: Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Italy, Slovenia, UK, Iceland all posted increases in terms of 2010-2011 average compared to 2000-2009 average.

Charts below illustrate (data from Eurostat report, charted and computed by myself):

Note: in the case of Ireland, weather events had potentially significant impact on 2008 and 2010 birth rates. Adjusting for these effects, 2011 reading of TFR for Ireland is hardly a significant decline.