19/1/2013: Asia & CEE risk metrics: January 2013

Asia and CEE risk metrics (via Byblos Bank Research) (click on the image to enlarge to see the full table):

16/11/2012: Russian economy Q3 2012

In contrast with contraction (-0.1%) in the Euro area (see my note on Dutch woes here), Russian economy grew 2.9% in Q3 2012 - slightly ahead of consensus expectations (2.8%). However, Q3 growth marked the slowest pace of expansion since Q1 2010. Main drivers of growth performance were:

• Private consumption remaining on slower growth path
• Declining growth rate in investment (on monthly basis, September data showed surprise decline of 1.3% in overall investment - the first contraction since Q1 2010)
• Industrial production increased 2% y/y in September, almost unchanged from August 2.1% rise. However strong PMI data for October should provide some boost.
• Weaker demand for agricultural commodities was a drag on exports, alongside shallower demand for extraction sectors exports.

The net effect is that slowdown in consumer demand growth and capex are likely to adversely impact Irish exports to Russia. However, I don't foresee significant or prolonged effect here. More on bilateral trade flows to follow in subsequent analysis, so stay tuned.

Update: 

12/09/2011: Bilateral trade with Russia - latest data

Speaking at today's Croke Park conference "Finding New Markets: Doing Business in Russia, Central & Easter Europe and the Gulf", organized by Enterprise Ireland and Ulster Bank, I realized that in the rush of recent markets and crises, I forgot to update the charts on our bilateral trade with Russia, to reflect the latest data for May 2011 (released a couple of weeks ago).

Not to be a harbinger of only bad news, here's the latest bilateral trade results. And they are even more impressive, folks, than our overall external trade performance (see the latest data covered here).

The chart above shows truly dramatic gains in Irish exports since the beginning of this year. In May 2011, Irish exports to Russia amounted to €63.3 million against our imports from Russia of €9.2 million, implying the monthly trade balance of €54.1 million - the highest on the record. May was the second consecutive month of records-breaking trade surpluses in our bilateral trade with Russia with April surplus standing at €36.5 million.

In annualized terms, these numbers are also impressive. Using data from January through May 2011 and historical trends for monthly series from 2004 through present, my forecast for Irish exports to Russia for 2011 is to reach €569 million (range of €560-575 million) against projected imports of €115.7 million, to deliver a massive trade surplus of €454 million for the year as a whole.
If delivered, this level of trade surpluses will be more than double achieved in 2010 (€213.1 million) and will be 83% above the trade surplus achieved in 2007.

In terms of international comparatives, Russian market importance to Irish exporters is hard to overestimate. Take the first 5 months of 2011. Against bilateral trade surplus of €231.3 million achieved with Russia (an increase of 162% on same period in 2010), we have:

• Bilateral trade surplus of just €33.4 million with Brazil (with trade surplus falling in the first five months of 2011 by 23.7% compared to the same period of 2010)
• Bilateral trade deficit of €130 million with China (with trade deficit in the first five months of 2011 contrasted by the small trade surplus of €74 million achieved in the same period of 2010)
• Bilateral trade deficit of €86.2 million with India (with trade deficit in the first five months of 2011 showing further yoy deterioration on the deficit of €56.2 million achieved in the same period of 2010)
• Bilateral trade surplus with our traditional trading partners: Australia (€262 million down from €291 million yoy), Canada (€89.9 million down from €123.8 million yoy), Japan (€340 million down from €382.7 million yoy), Turkey (€99 million up on €83 million yoy)

19/07/2011: Ireland-Russia Bilateral Trade - April 2011

Updating our trade statistics for Russia for April 2011:

• In April 2011, Irish exports to Russia stood at €51.5 million, up from €40.6 million in March and up on €35.8 million a year ago
• Irish imports from Russia in April 2011 were €15 million, flat on March 2011 and down from €18.8 million in April 2010

• Irish trade balance with Russia in April 2011 stood at €36.5 million - the highest trade balance achieved in bilateral trade with Russia in any month since January 2009

Using data for the first 4 months of 2011, we can update (still very crude) forecast for annual bilateral trade:
One way or the other, the data suggests we are on track to post another record trade year and record trade surplus year in 2011.

Some more stats. For the first 4 months of the year, 2011 trade surplus with Russia amounted to €113.8 million, which was the 5th highest trade surplus for Irish trade with the countries other than EU 27 and US. Only Australia (€202.5 million), Japan (€251.9 million), Saudi Arabia (€179.3 million) and Switzerland (€1,032 million) yielded stronger trade surplus for Ireland than Russia in absolute terms. The trade surplus for the first 4 months of 2011 rose substantially - by 252.32% or €81.5 million compared to the same period of 2010.

In comparison with Ireland's trade surplus with Russia of €113.8 million in January-April 2011, Ireland recorded:

• A trade surplus of €30.6 million with Brazil,
• A trade surplus of €108.6 million with Canada,
• A trade deficit of -€61.7 million with China,
• A trade deficit of -€71.8 million with India,
• A trade surplus of €98.5 million with Mexico,
• A trade deficit of €343 million with Norway,
• A trade surplus of €74.7 million with Turkey
  

21/06/2011: Bilateral trade between Ireland and Russia

As promised earlier today - the latest updates on bilateral trade between Russia and Ireland, courtesy of the latest CSO release.

Imports from Russia rose from €10.6mln in February 2011 to €15mln in March, down on €18.8mln a year ago. Exports to Russia rose from €39.5mln to €40.6mln mom in March. Q2 2011 Exports now stand at €116.5mln while imports are €39.1mln implying a trade surplus in favour of Ireland of €77.4mln for Q1 2011 - up from €15.9mln a year ago. Overall, trade surplus to Russia for Q1 2011 is now above trade balance for Brazil (€19.1mln), Canada (€68.7mln), Malaysia (€56.7mln), Mexico (€69.5mln), Singapore (€54mln), South Africa (€38.5mln), South Korea (€14.6mln) and Turkey (€57.4mln). It is worth noting that trade with China, India and Taiwan registered trade deficits against Ireland.

Few charts to illustrate (note the annualized projections based on Q1 data - not for the accuracy points, but for the directionality).

So should the performance so far through Q1 continue, this will be another record year for bilateral trade with Russia both in terms of exports from Ireland and in terms of trade surplus.

22/05/11: Ireland and BRICs - Trade flows

Just run thought the figures for external trade (goods) for February 2011 and updated my files for bilateral trade with Russia and BRICs overall. Here are the core results:
Bilateral trade with Russia is booming and the trade balance surplus is heading for historical highs, as I have predicted in a recent interviews with Rossijskaja Gazeta (here) and Voice of Russia (here).
Here's the chart:

Note that Irish trade authorities have been stressing -as strategic objective - development of trade with the BRICs. In particular, China has been a major target for Irish trade promotion and development agencies, well ahead of Brazil, India and Russia. You'd expect China to be net importer of Irish goods for suhc attention to be paid to the country. Take a look:
It turns out that our policy has been targeting the country that runs a massive trade surplus against Ireland. In other words, our imports from China are vastly in excess of our exports to China. In the mean time, Russia - which generates consistent trade surpluses for Ireland - is largely untouched by the Government agencies, when compared to China.

Here are the cumulative surpluses from our trade with Russia since 2004: