14/5/19: Trump's Trade Wars and Global Growth Slowdown Put Pressure on Corporate Earnings

The combined impacts of rising dollar strength, reduced growth momentum in the global economy and President Trump's trade wars are driving down earnings growth across S&P500 companies with double-digit drop in earnings of companies with more global (>50% of sales outside the U.S.) as opposed to domestic (<50 exposures.="" of="" p="" sales="" the="" u.s.="" within="">
Per Factset data, released May 13, "The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q1 2019 is -0.5%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the blended earnings growth rate is 6.2%. For companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the blended earnings decline is -12.8%."

Economics 17/02/2010: Baltic Dry Index & trade recovery

Some interesting reading from the BDI – Baltic Dry Index – that tells us the cost of hiring a bulk commodity shipping cargo. The BDI is a good indicator of concurrent trade and industrial activities globally – rising BDI means tighter supply of shipping capacity and thus increased shipping volumes – spot. Back in 2008 is was at a record high of 11,793.

Now, January 2009 saw BDI falling to 772 low, it then recovered with some tremendous volatility through the year before setting annual 2009 average of 2658. As of today it is at 2598 – below the 2009 average and at only 22% of the 2008 peak.

Not much of a sign of a global recovery here.