22/5/2014: Poverty in the US Cities: Regional Comparatives

Bloomberg published a fascinating list of 50 US cities with biggest exposure to poverty amongst their populations. The full list is available here: http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/most-poverty-us-cities

Just to make exercise a little different, I grouped them into four main regions. One would expect the results to show South to have highest poverty exposures, the West showing relatively benign poverty, but due to high ethnic diversity and significant presence of minorities, somewhat higher poverty exposure than, say North-East... alas, here are the numbers in full glory.

Ranking in descending order: West shows lowest poverty exposures, followed by the South excluding Florida (different composition of population by age and ethnicity), and so on, until Mid-West comes out the worst, but only as long as we include the State of Michigan (Detroit and Flit being numbers 1 and 2 worst off cities when it comes to poverty).

10/11/2013: WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics

Having spent the entire weekend in the Marble City at Kilkenomics 2013, I hardly had any time to read through many articles on arts and sciences this week. Hence, this week's WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics will be short.


For a popular science magazine, this article doesn't quite get high accolades for being either well-written or insightful, but the topic of it is very fascinating and, with some stretch of imagination beyond our current technological capabilities, even important. Basically, some astronomy eggheads decided to carry out a relatively simple exercise. Assume that with conditions in other solar systems similar to those found in ours, the distance from the sun and the nature of orbit determine the temperature conditions to be found on planets. Thus, any planet with its orbit falling within the specific range of distance from the sun (star) will be potentially inhabitable. Now, take visible stars and start linking star intensity (energy it emits) to distance to orbiting plants. Count the ones that are close enough not to be ice cubes floating in space and yet far enough not to be like a roasting oven… Simple and rather boring. But also rather significant. It turns out that the closest candidate to Earth we can find is a planet mere 12 light years away from us. (That is just shy of 113,528,765,670,970 kilometers or, like, 272,120,723,085 round trips between Dublin and Cork without stop-overs in McDonalds, that's right over 272 trillion round trips)... some might, one day, call that commuting distance to Dublin...
http://www.popsci.com/article/science/one-five-sun-stars-have-earth-planets?src=SOC&dom=tw
Here is the same story in much cooler and excited language of science:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/31/1319909110.full.pdf

Fig. 4. The detected planets (dots) in a 2D domain similar to Figs. 1 and 2. Here, the 2D domain has orbital period replaced by stellar light intensity, incident flux, hitting the planet. The highlighted region shows the 10 Earth-size planets that receive an incident stellar flux comparable to the Earth: flux =0.25–4.0 times the flux received by the Earth from the Sun. Our uncertainties on stellar flux and planet radii are indicated at the top right.

To explain the above: green box contains Earth-like planets. Or in the terminology of the article: 10 small ðRP=1−2 R⊕Þ planets that receive stellar flux comparable to Earth: FP=0:25−4 F⊕.


Back on Earth, meanwhile, the largely uninhabited and uninhabitable planet Detroit got a fresh start on (some) life in the form of an absolutely fantastic new firm that specialises in reviving what used to be an industrial design powerhouse. Shinola is a superb group of designers and producers that do everything - from fantastic watches to unbelievably well-designed and executed bikes… Enjoy!
https://www.facebook.com/shinola
An awesome brand from an awesome city... The first set of non-Swiss watches I actually would love to own…

From life-restoring design success story of Detroit's wastelands to the story of human's life-destroying activities in the oceans:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140164/alan-b-sielen/the-devolution-of-the-seas?cid=soc-facebook-in-snapshots-the_devolution_of_the_seas-110913
Foreign Affairs once again delivers a superb article on a hugely important topic.


And from digging ourselves into the environmental trouble, to digging out a troubled history… Brief history of world's largest hand-made hole:
http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/big-hole-and-open-mine-museum

Attached to it, is the story of the De Beers...

Enough for the day that's left...

19/10/2013: WLASze Part 1: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics

This is the first post of my WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences, and zero economics for this week.

Enjoy.


Today is the birthday of one of my favourite Italian futurists: Umberto Boccioni, born this day in 1882. Here's his brilliant painting from the States of Mind series: The Farewells, 1911

Boccioni's page on ArtStack: http://theartstack.com/artists/umberto-boccioni


Great slideshow giving an insight into the world of trespassers' photography:
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/10/adventures-of-a-serial-trespasser/100604/

This is not quite art, but there is some sense of raw force driving us, as people, to pushing the limits of 'normality'. And that force is well-represented in these photographs… almost voyeuristic, half creative and half inquisitive - the borderline of learning self and expressing self...


Via http://www.saatchionline.com/koenlybaert works of a Belgian painter Koen Lybaert:

Evocative of (if not outright 'borrowing from) Gerhard Richter's works.
http://www.gerhard-richter.com/art/
http://theartstack.com/artists/gerhard-richter


An interesting report about the research into behavioural, emotional and mental activity of dogs, suggesting that the caudate region activity in dogs' brains is proximate to human and indicates that dogs: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/opinion/sunday/dogs-are-people-too.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

Some select quotes: "Although we are just beginning to answer basic questions about the canine brain, we cannot ignore the striking similarity between dogs and humans in both the structure and function of a key brain region: the caudate nucleus."

"Do these findings prove that dogs love us? Not quite. But many of the same things that activate the human caudate, which are associated with positive emotions, also activate the dog caudate. Neuroscientists call this a functional homology, and it may be an indication of canine emotions. The ability to experience positive emotions, like love and attachment, would mean that dogs have a level of sentience comparable to that of a human child. And this ability suggests a rethinking of how we treat dogs."

Not only an amazing set of studies, but also a promise of serious ethical and even legal implications, were the findings to continue expanding our insight into the emotional, cognitive and psychological existence of our extended family members…


A brief note: http://classic.slashdot.org/story/13/10/07/2352217 with huge implications. This marks the first time that a fusion reactor was able to generate more energy than it consumed. Full report here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24429621


An absolutely stunning breakthrough in mapping out the future of mathematical theory:
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/10/01/voevodskys-mathematical-revolution/
The implications of this thinking are so far reaching out only to the issue of how we write proofs (the topic of the article), but far beyond that, the removal of the heavy burden of proof formulation and verification will enable mathematics to move onto the core purpose of the field of any inquiry - derivation of questions and formulation of propositions. Here's a direct link to Voyevodsky's work on Univaliant Foundations: http://www.math.ias.edu/~vladimir/Site3/Univalent_Foundations.html and his lecture introducing the topic: http://video.ias.edu/univalent
Marvellously put…

For those of you who took my course in Investment Theory this week at Trinity College, I referenced this work in the last lecture, talking about the advancements in computing and data analytics / strategy formation nexus.


And from the future of mathematics to the past of the power that drives all inquiry: humanity. The origins of our beginnings must be rethought now... thanks to the latest fossil discovery...
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/oct/17/skull-homo-erectus-human-evolution?CMP=twt_gu


Enjoy and stay tuned for more WLASze...

19/7/2013: Detroit officially files for Chapter 9

So after much of prevarication and discussions with the unions (there always discussions with the unions involved), the City of Detroit has filed for Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy protection. Detroit recently missed USD40 million payment to its own pension system and has amassed estimated USD18.5-20 billion in long-term liabilities.

Washington Post has an excellent timeline on the crisis: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/18/detroit-just-filed-for-bankruptcy-heres-how-it-got-there/

The city has shrunk over the decades from over 1.8 million in 1950 Census to around 700,000 currently (2010 Census put Detroit population at 713,777). In 2000-2010 the city population fell by 25% with the city rankings in the US by population falling from 10th largest to 18th largest. Meanwhile the six-counties Metropolitan Detroit area population is healthy at 4.296 million and ranks 13th largest in the US.

Quote from the Washington Post: "The official unemployment is now 18.6 percent, and fewer than half of the city’s residents over the age of 16 are working. Per capita income is an extremely low $15,261 a year…"

And another quote: "“The city’s operations have become dysfunctional and wasteful after years of budgetary restrictions, mismanagement, crippling operational practices and, in some cases, indifference or corruption,” Orr wrote in May. “Outdated policies, work practices, procedures and systems must be improved consistent with best practices of 21st-century government.” (Detroit has been a one-party city run by Democrats since 1962.)"

A good compendium of information on Chapter 9 bankruptcy for the cities from the Business Inside here: http://www.businessinsider.com/municipal-bankruptcies-explained-2013-7

Apocalyptic imagery of the city: http://www.marchandmeffre.com/detroit/

And my earlier post on the lessons Detroit bankruptcy process offers in comparatives to Ireland's errors in relation to the banks crisis:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/662013-detroit-is-about-to-go-bankrupt.html
As usual, this blog was ahead of the Irish news curve by a month...

Lastly, a ray of hope: http://www.businessinsider.com/after-filing-bankruptcy-detroit-is-on-the-verge-of-an-epic-comeback-2013-7

Which echoes some of my tweets on the subject (read from the bottom tweet up):

14/6/2013: Detroit suspends payments on unsecured debt

I recently wrote (albeit in distinct context) about Detroit's bankruptcy. Here's the latest on the saga:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-14/detroit-on-bankruptcy-s-brink-stops-paying-some-debts-orr-says.html

I love this city because it gave me (via Chicago) my greatest partner in the crime of life. And my students in Smurfit Graduate School of Business are certainly familiar with the imagery of the urban collapse from Detroit and Flint, Michigan on foot of my lecture notes slides penchant for dramatic photography.

Sadly, it is totally, comprehensively, irreparably destroyed. Its only hope is a structured and comprehensive default followed by a bottom-up restructuring of its economy, demographics, politics, policies and institutions. Let's hope Michigan State will not commit the errors committed by the Euro area 'leaders' in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain, Italy...

6/6/2013: Detroit is about to go bankrupt... differently from the Irish banks

So who is to say sovereign (or rather quasi-sovereign) defaults are a rarity in fiscal + currency unions? Here's a story about forthcoming, well-flagged in advanced Chapter 9 bankruptcy for Detroit: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/93438-detroit-facing-chapter-9-bankruptcy/

And, guess what - the story is telling in more than just one context. The terms and conditions of the restructuring will be ugly, but manageable... And the sequencing of events is revealing:

• Step 1: Detroit had $15.7 billion debt load it cannot repay - diagnosis was set as insolvency. 
• Step 2: The city was taken over by the state of Michigan and emergency manager was appointed.
• Step 3: The state of Michigan needed a calm evaluation of the problem confirming the diagnosis of insolvency and it was deemed to be structural (economy suffering from unsustainable levels of unemployment, declining population, loss of revenues, etc, but also cost overruns).
• Step 4: Rating agencies dropped ratings on Detroit debt and debt limits kicked in before then.
• Step 5: Chapter 9 bankruptcy, forced deal with the unions and Financial Advisory Board was set up with very clear termination objectives.

The sequencing of events above is distinct from what has happened in the case of Ireland's banking crisis resolution, where the above steps were re-ordered as follows:

1. Steps 4 and 5 (resolution steps) took place ahead of any assessment and diagnosis postulation and confirmation (banks guarantee issuance)
2. Step 3 took place next in the form of PCARs assessments
3. Step 2 (takeover) took place only after the PCARs
4. Diagnosis was never fully correctly established - all banks, save for Anglo and INBS are still considered officially solvent
5. Step 5 never took place with exception of Anglo and INBS

In other words, we never created a security cordon around the banks that would have resulted in banks takeover prior to guarantees and recapitalisations and this has meant that the banks were always able to use the threat of disclosure of insolvency as the means for bargaining out improved position vis a vis the taxpayers. 

Best proof of this: at no point in time did the state of Michigan tell the markets or the nation or its own taxpayers that Detroit will never be allowed to go bust. In contrast, during 2008-2010 period, Irish Government repeatedly asserted that the banks will be provided all and any funding necessary to stay in business.