4/12/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

As of today, 67 countries around thee world have registered > 100,000 cases of COVID19. Here are the summary tables of core statistics covering these countries:

Summary stats:

Since the start of the second wave of the pandemic in Europe, EU27 are now once again having higher share of contributions to overall death counts (18.5% of world's total) than the corresponding share for thee U.S. (18.3%). Actual gap is 0.172 percentage points. However, in more recent days, EU27 new case numbers have been falling, while those in the U.S. continue to rise. This suggests that in weeks to come we are likely to see another reversal in deaths shares.

Just two weeks ago, combined share of global deaths accounted for by G7 countries plus Spain stood at 34.5%. Today, it is at 35.0%. For the U.S. the number shifted from 18.6% to 18.3% currently, while for the EU27 it rose from 16.6% to 18.5%. This clearly highlights the shift in the pandemic impact toward Europe in the last two weeks.

U.S. mortality rate from COVID19 has moderated over the last two weeks, falling from 21.9 deaths per 1,000 cases to 19.54. For the EU27, mortality actually rose from 23.0 to 23.3.

Overall, the worst performing country across three metrics of cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per 1,000 cases is Belgium, followed by Peru and Spain. Italy ranks the fourth, Argentina the fifth and the UK ranks the 6th worst performer,

The U.S. ranks 7th worst and the EU27 ranks 21st worst. 

24 countries have more than 500,000 cases and 14 have more than 1,000,000 cases. The U.S. is the only country with more than 10,000,000 cases at 14,139,703. The second largest number of cases is in India at 9,571,559. Brazil is the third with 6,487,084 cases. Only seven countries recorded more than 50,000 deaths so far, of which four recorded more than 100,000 deaths. The U.S. has the largest number of total COVID19-linked deaths in the world (276,316), followed by Brazil (175,270) and India (139,188).

4/12/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data for COVID19 pandemic worldwide:

Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. In August, new daily case additions have been relatively flat. However, since the start of September, new daily case numbers have risen once again, implying that Global Pandemic is yet to attain its first overall peak.

New daily cases have appeared to peak for the current wave of the pandemic around November 21. However, since the start of December, 7 days moving average has resumed its upward momentum. This implies that we must exercise extreme caution in interpreting end of November timeline for the peaking of the second wave.

The chart above clearly shows the difficulty in interpreting global peak of the pandemic. Overall, notionally, we have experienced what appears to be three waves: 

1. Wave 1 peaked around April 9th and the first trough took place around the end of April.
2. Wave 2 started from the first days of May and peaked between August 1 and August 14.
3. Wave 3 started from the second trough of August 27-29th and has (to-date) peaked around November 21.

However, statistically, neither Wave 1 nor Wave 2 attained a true peak, as post-local peak troughs were to shallow to genuinely mark a statistically significant deviation from each prior local peak.

In other words, there is little in the data to allow us to call the aforementioned Waves 1 & 2 as genuinely distinctive waves of the pandemic.

The above aside, back to data: looking at the daily deaths rates

Unlike new cases, daily deaths show more distinct waves patterns. Specifically, 

1. Wave 1: peaking around April 22 generated a post-peak trough around June 3 that is statistically significantly below the peak values. This defines a statistically valid wave.
2. Wave 2: starting from around June 7 and peaking around August 13. This wave ended in a trough of September 22 which is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. This means it is harder to call this a genuine wave.
3. Wave 3: starting from around October 23 and currently still accelerating. There is zero doubt that this is a well-defined wave.

Looking back at the more current data, deaths counts are rising steeply, with some slight moderation in the last few days. This moderation in the growth rates is highlighted in the chart below:

It is important to contextualise the above chart before drawing any conclusions. Growth rates in both deaths and new case counts have moderated. But this moderation is coming off extremely high levels in both time series. Put differently, suppose we start at a value of 100 and grow by 20% in one period. This means one period rise is 20% * 100 = 20 units. Suppose we start instead at 300 and grow by 10% in a period. This implies increase in units of 10% * 300 = 30 units. 

With this in mind, even moderated rates of growth wee have witnessed since the start of December are worrying. Here are two tables summarising monthly statistics for bot cases and deaths and growth rates statistics in both new cases and deaths. 

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage and it appears that much welcomed moderation in the new cases dynamics witnessed in the last week of November is unlikely to hold. Worse, within a week, we will be going into pre-holidays mode around the world and in the U.S. we will be also experiencing lagged cases uplifts due to Thanksgiving travel. 

Stay safe everyone: December will be a hellish month.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating the tables for countries with more than 100,000 recorded cases of COVID19:

• U.S. continues to lead globally in terms of deaths and new cases counts. On per-capita terms, the U.S. ranks 7th worst in the world in terms of cases per 1 million of population, 12th worst in terms of deaths per 1 million of population and 27th worst in the world in terms of deaths per 1,000 officially detected infections. The country has, by far, the most expensive (as a share of GDP) healthcare system in the world.
• In contrast, were they treated as a single entity, BRIICS+Turkey have better than average performance in terms of number of cases, number of deaths per capita and an average (statistically)  rate of deaths per 1,000 cases.
• Worldwide, 20 countries now have more than 500,000 cases and 5 countries of these have more than 50,000 deaths.
• On per capita basis, the worst performing country in the world for cases counts is Qatar, followed by Belgium and Czechia, Armenia and Israel. In terms of deaths per capita, the worst country in the world is Belgium, followed by Peru, Spain, Argentina and Brazil. 
• In deaths per 1,000 confirmed cases, the worst performing country is Mexico, followed by Ecuador, Bolivia, Egypt and Iran.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data on global COVID19 pandemic spread:

Some summary tables first;

November-to-date is an outlier month in terms of both, case numbers and deaths. While the former is in part driven by better availability of testing, the latter runs contrary to the expected outrun of improved testing: higher rates pf testing lead to earlier detection of the disease and, in theory, should lead to reduced deaths. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Daily average new deaths are running at 8.294 so far in November - a massive increase on October and the highest average for any month so far. Worse, thee geography of new cases has shifted from less-developed countries (South and Latin America, India etc) to more advanced economies (the U.S. and Europe), which should, in theory, see a reduction in daily deaths counts (due to better public health systems). This is not happening.

Table above shows dramatic jump in the rate of growth in deaths in November, compared to every prior month. It also suggests longer lags in deaths increases following cases increases, which may be due to earlier detection and younger cases demographics. This, however, is not comforting. Again, earlier detection and younger demographics should lead to slower rates of growth in deaths, not higher.

Charts for cases and deaths:

Moving averages clearly show relentless growth in the pandemic since the start of October for cases and the end of October for deaths. The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating.

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:

Summary statistics:

Histograms for both:

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is accelerating world-wide and the death toll is now rising at an alarming rate:

The chart above is the most alarming one: rates of growth in new cases and in daily deaths counts (the second derivative) are well-above their past months' averages. Death toll is rising by a third, daily, on average since the start of November. Covid-denialists have persistently argued that despite increases in the numbers of new cases, deaths were falling (they were not: August was the only month of negative growth in daily deaths). In fact, starting with September, daily deaths, on average, grew by double-digits percentage points, and the rate of growth accelerated in October by 80 percent compared to September. 

Global second wave of the pandemic is substantially more deadly (in absolute numbers) than the prior wave. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:

Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:

• The EU27 would have ranked 17th worst case in the total group of 51 countries + EU27; the U.S. ranks 8th worst.
• The UK ranks 7th worst.
• Sweden, the 'herd immunity' darling ranks 15th worst across the board, 7th worst in deaths per 1,000 cases, and 16th worst in deaths per 1 million of population. For comparison, the Netherlands ranks 20th worst - the only other Nordic country to make it into the table of countries with > 100,000 cases. 
• Peru, followed by Belgium and Spain are the worst three countries across all metrics (combined).

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide: 

Increasing death counts above the relatively stable trend/average of the prior three months is worrying. Growth rates in new infections and new deaths in October and in the first three days of November are also out of line with past months' experience:

Summary tables:

Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

Some interesting updates to the league tables for countries with > 100,000. Since the last update, five more countries joined the rather sad club, including Sweden (more on this later), and there are now 47 countries around the world with more than 100,000 cases of the disease recorded. 

The tables below are organized as a heat map, with green cells reporting statistics that put a country in the 'better than average' category, while orange cells marking countries statistically worse than average:

• The EU27 - ranked relative to the countries, though excluded from the national level statistics inputs - is ranked 17th worst in the table.
• The U.S. is now jointly ranked 7th worst with the UK - a one point deterioration in performance for thee U.S. since the earlier update.
• Sweden ranks 15th worst - poorer performance than the EU27, but not by much.
• Globally, the worst impacted country is Peru, followed by Belgium and Bolivia (tied for the 2nd rank), Brazil (4th) and Chile (5th).
• The U.S. accounts for 4.34% of the world population, but holds a steady 20% share of global cases and deaths.
• The EU27 accounts for 5.92% of the world population, and holds 11% of world's cases and 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+ Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 39% of world's cases and 30% of world's deaths.

A note regarding Sweden: it is fashionable these days to advance an argument that Sweden has attained the imaginary 'herd immunity' and has avoided shutdown of the economy while successfully crushing the pandemic. The arguments are absolute dross (more on this in a separate post). Sweden ranks poorly when it comes to absolute numbers and it ranks poorer than the EU27 (even with Sweden included in the EU numbers). 

• Sweden's infection rate is 25th highest in the world, which is basically identical to the EU's ranks of 26th. In actual numbers, Sweden's rate is only 1.68% higher than that of the EU27.
• However, Sweden ranks 15th in the mortality rate per capita of population (575.95 per 1 million of population), where as thee EU27 ranks 19th (361.33 per 1 million of population). Actual rate in Sweden is 59.4% higher than in the EU27.
• Sweden also ranks much worse than the EU27 in the COVID19 deaths per infection rate: Sweden is ranked 8th worst in the world, against the EU27 rank of 12th worst. Sweden has COVID19 mortality rate of 54.5 per 1,000 cases, the EU27 rate is 34.7. 
• Sweden did not shut down its economy. But it is not doing better than all other economies that did. There are a total of 39 advanced economies in the world, including Sweden. In 2020-2021 growth outlook (cumulated forecast over 2 years), Sweden ranks 16th highest growth. Not exactly terribly, but not great either. 
• In 2020-2021, based on IMF's October 2020 forecasts, Sweden's real GDP is expected to end 2021 at 98.59, relative to 100 for the end of 2019. Worse than Norway at 100.62, and Finland at 99.45 and Estonia at 99.07 and Denmark at 98.84, but better than the Netherlands at 98.43.
• Hardly an impressive performance for a 'herd immunity' country that is in more recent weeks enjoying post-peak troughs.

More on Sweden vs Nordics in a separate post to come.

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating:

New cases numbers have set all-time records in the last two days, and daily counts ranked in top 10 in the last 10 days on eight occasions, with the balance two occasions coming in ranked 13th and 15th, respectively. Despite the rising public complacency and fatigue to the pandemic numbers, globally, we are yet to attain the first peak of the pandemic, suggesting that when this does happen, we are likely to be set for an even worse second wave of infections.

Overall, 7-days average for new infections is at a jaw-dropping 390,097, more than 3 times the historical median and up on the 30-days average of 333,024 cases per day. 

In deaths counts, things are not looking great either.

Globally, new daily deaths counts peaked back in April 2020. This peak was generated by severe lags in reporting past deaths and changes in methodologies for reporting deaths, primarily in Europe, as the world developed statistical tools for tracking deaths and accounting for them. Since then, the more accurate peak took place around the first half of August.

In the months since August local peak, we have seen virtually no meaningful moderation in deaths counts. Current 7 days average of new daily deaths is 5,616 per day, slightly up on the 30 days average of 5,573 - a rather discouraging sign, given rapid improvements in treatments availability and a marked shift of the infections toward younger cohorts of population. Mortality rates per confirmed case are more subdued today, of course, but this is hardly a reflection on any changes in the underlying severity of the diseases, and more likely reflects improved and earlier detections and improved quality of interventions. Interestingly, the new evidence from the second wave sweeping across Europe suggests longer lags between new cases detections and increase in hospitalisations. Despite this lag, however, it now appears that hospitalisations are once again on a rise in the EU27.

Growth rates in new cases and deaths are alarming:

Both, growth rates in new cases and in daily reported deaths are now significantly in excess of anything observed since the flattening out of the growth curve starting with mid-May. October rates of deaths and cases are substantially ahead of September rates, indicating that the pandemic is accelerating, not abating.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.

As always, the table is presented in two parts:

Here are some summary cases:

The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world's population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically 'average' to being 'worse than average' to join the U.S. and other heavily-impacted countries. 

Summary of descriptive statistics:

In terms of overall performance, thee U.S. ranks 9th worst in the league of countries with > 100,000 cases, while the EU27, if it was a country of its own, would have ranked 18th. The UK ranks 9th worst, Spain 5th worst. Peru is the worst impacted country with more than 100,000 cases, followed by Belgium in the 2nd place, Bolivia in the 3rd and Brazil in thee 4th.

Stay tuned for my usual in-depth look at the U.S. vs EU27.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:

Cases:

• As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. 
• The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.
• Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.
• The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.
• All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of COVID19 pandemic.

Deaths:

• The slight reduction in daily counts we've seen between the first week of August and the end of September is now fully exhausted. 
• Over the last 7 days, daily death counts averaged 5,135 worldwide, which is slightly below the 30-days average of 5,486,  but rising once again.
• October (to-date) average daily growth rate in deaths is 17.62%, which is massive, compared to September's 9.99%, and to falling rate of -2.41% recorded in August. October rate is so far three times higher than June-July rate.
• Note that October to-date rate of growth in new cases is pretty close to the rate of growth in new deaths. This is worrying, because it seems to contradict some claims made in the media about allegedly rapidly declining mortality of COVID19.

Net: rates of growth:

You can see the trends discussed above in the chart: from April through July, we witness sustained case of daily deaths growth rates running below the new cases growth rates. Starting with the fourth week of July, this relationship breaks down. 

The above fact suggests that it is too premature to claim that COVID19 pandemic is on track to containment: both cases and deaths numbers indicate that the global pandemic has returned to an accelerating phase of its dynamics, 

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

• There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
• The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
• EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
• 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
• In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.