4/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

Updating U.S. vs EU27 charts. Main conclusions in the charts, so click to enlarge these:

Death rates and deaths: key here, the U.S. is now within four-five days from completely overtaking the EU27 in the number of total fatalities, without even adjusting for the population size:

Of course, the U.S. already has higher death rates than the EU27, once we adjust for population differences.

And U.S. cases are roaring ahead. In fact, the U.S. leads the world in new cases additions, having overtaken this week its own abysmal record peak levels:

Daily death counts are not falling in the U.S. on-trend, despite what you hear from people focused solely on week-on-week comparatives:

The above two charts paint a painfully ugly picture for the U.S. pandemic developments:

1. EU27 are relaxing their COVID19 restrictions against the backdrop of new cases and deaths counts being below the levels when the restrictions were introduced. The U.S. is doing the same against the backdrop of severely elevated and rising new cases, well ahead of the numbers that prompted original restrictions introductions. The U.S. is also relaxing restrictions at the time when daily deaths counts are running well above those that warranted introduction of restrictions.
2. Notably, the U.S. deaths cases counts are of questionable quality at higher frequency analysis. What does this mean? U.S. local authorities report deaths with severe lags, especially for deaths that do not take place in the hospitals. Even hospitals have significant lags in reporting deaths data. This means that we cannot use daily frequency data for true insights into death rates dynamics. Looking at the data from mid-June through July 4, daily death rates are statistically static, not declining. 
3. U.S. death rates per capita are currently more than 30 percent higher than those in the EU27. This is a cumulative gap, and it is growing so far. As of July 4th data (this is ECDC data, so covers July 3), U.S. death rate per 1 million of population was 32 percent above that of the EU27. A week before, the same rate was 29 percent higher in the U.S. and two weeks ago, the gap was 23 percent. The U.S. moved six percentage points within two weeks.
4. U.S. public compliance with social distancing and other safety measures has been an unmitigated disaster. The reason is more than the lack of coordination between the local authorities. The U.S. has politicized masks and social distancing, thanks to Mr. Trump and his supporters. The U.S. has also politicized safety behavior. The same is not the case in Europe, although there are reports of lax compliance with safety norms in many parts of the continent. 

All of the above strongly implies that the U.S. is now well-set to witness a new and stronger wave of pandemic contagion. This is happening in the middle of the summer and with weather conditions that should be favoring reduction in contagion, as opposed to its acceleration.