Wednesday, July 29, 2020

29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Russia and BRIICS

An infrequent update on Russia COVID19 stats:

Daily Cases and Deaths:

Russia is failing to arrest the new cases curve and the deaths curve, with both series running at elevated levels through July. Thee decline in new cases around the end of June was also associated with a drop in daily deaths. Since the opening up of the restrictions in advance of the July referendum vote, Russian COVID19 cases and deaths have shown disruption in the prior positive trends. Last 7-days average new cases are running at 5,741, which is statistically indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 6,197. Similarly, current 7-days average of 132 is materially indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 138.

I noted in late June that Russia is rushing into relaxation of restrictions and this is a mis-guided policy decision that seem to have nothing to do with the pandemic dynamics. It appears that my analysis was correct.

Mortality Rates: 

Russian mortality rates are rising, and are now firmly close to the average of the BRIICS economies:

Amongst all countries with more than 25,000 cases (58 countries & EU27), currently, Russia ranks

  • 22nd highest by the number of COVID19 cases per capita
  • 32nd highest by the number of deaths per capita of population
  • 44th highest by the mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 COVID19 cases)
  • Cumulatively, across all three categories of metrics, Russia scores within the 95% confidence interval for the mean score for the group of 58 countries and the EU27.

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