Monday, February 13, 2012

13/2/2012: Now - a Greece comparative that doesn't work in our favor

Sometimes those 'We are not Greece' comparatives work our way, sometimes (fortunately enough rarely) they take us in the opposite direction. Take a look at the following two charts from DB Research (hat tip to Zero Hedge). Note: you might want to click on the charts to enlarge.

Chart one clearly shows Ireland's impressive performance with low interest rates, bubble-fueled domestic growth. The chart below shows Ireland's disastrous growth performance since the bubble burst. What's the point, you ask? Ok, half of the period of our rapid decline has been the period of exports boom, the period of our growth has been the period of domestic growth. Irish exports have been on the tear since quarter  9 in the second chart. And yet, the miracle is not happening - the exports-led recovery is still not here.

And look at Greece. And Portugal. And Spain. And Italy. And compare to Ireland. Scary? Glance back at chart 1 above and spot the fall we've taken. Some might say as the consolation that we are still ahead of all the PIIGS in actual national income (do keep in mind - the above charts are GDP, not much more adversely impacted GNP). Ok, let's put it in simpler terms: Greece has fallen from the 10th floor to the 5th floor balcony. We have fallen from the 20th floor to the 10th floor roof terrace. We are still five stories above Greece, but, man it has to hurt more.

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