Thursday, July 1, 2010

Economics 1/07/2010: Live Register - no recovery here

Live Register figures for June are truly depressing, folks. Regardless of what our QNA numbers telling us about real GDP growth, unemployment is continuing to climb.
We are now at 444,900 and climbing. In the year to June 2010 there was an unadjusted increase of 37,420 (+9.0%), down from an increase of 43,788 (+11.1%) in the year to May 2010. But that offers little in terms of consolation - most of people on LR in 12 months to May are still there - unemployed or underemployed.
A snapshot of weekly numbers above. Depressing. The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in June 2010 was 1,450, which compares with a weekly increase of 1,650 in the previous month. But unadjusted things are looking much worse (figure above).

There was an increase of 4,800 males and 1,100 females in the seasonally adjusted series in June. Undoubtedly strengthening contraction in construction activity in June is not helping here.
The standardised unemployment rate in June was 13.4%. This compares with 12.9% in the first quarter of 2010, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey. We are firmly on track to reach 13.7% before the end of this year.

Rates of change in LR are also accelerating - a disheartening feature:
As I said in my previous post on QNA data (here): we are having a fake recovery.
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