Friday, September 18, 2009

Economics 18/09/2009: An Illustration to the Idiot's Guide to Economics

Per chart below, average monthly bond spreads for Irish Government 10-years paper for the last 8 months.We've read Brian Lenihan's lips and here is what he said:

August 2009 (here): "The proposal to establish a National Asset Management Agency has been widely supported internationally by bodies such as the IMF and the OECD and tellingly since
the announcement of the establishment of Nama in April, bond spreads above the German benchmark for Irish sovereign debt have halved, from almost 3 per cent over 10 year German Bonds to now just 1.5 per cent. Irish 10 year bond yields are now 4.8 per cent."

August 2009 (here): "Indeed, during May I had to undertake a tour of EU financial centres to correct misinformation that existed about Ireland. This tour had a positive impact and there has been a significant reduction in the spreads on the State’s borrowing."

Plenty more to be found in the same vein. So per chart above, we've read your lips, Minister and... they produce gibberish so far. As I have remarked on many occasions, Irish bond spreads decline was
  • in line with other countries (and in particular - with APIIGS);
  • had more to do with the global change in appetite for risk and little-to-nothing to do with Minister Lenihan's decisions or policies;
  • lastly, per chart above, while Minister Lenihan was trying to sell his disastrous policies to the nation on the back of declining bond spreads, Ireland has moved from the already dubiously distinctive position of being the second most screwed up economy in the Eurozone after Greece prior to May 2009 to being the worst economy in the Eurozone in terms of its bonds spreads over German bund since Minister Lenihan (per above quote) undertook his courageous road show to Europe.
Per one observer comment on this: "we are now the largest pig in the APIIGS pen" - welcome to Lenihanomics?

And on a funny note (credit here)and courtesy of bocktherobber :
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