So it is time to upgrade a notch my forecasts.Interesting detail - Eurocoin turn around is under-pinned by rising (though still negative) trend in industrial production, business surveys (both PMI and EU Commission) still staying on the negative side, with Commission survey being particularly gloomy. Consumer surveys are still in dire straits, with exception of Italy (happy summer, folks) and Spain, though Spain is now looking poised for a double-dip consumer recession. Stock prices still are posting poor performance except for Spain and to a lesser extent Germany. Exports are at zero growth rates across the Eurozone, but are modestly positive in Germany, France and Spain.
Net result - a mixed bag of continued weaknesses (abating) and some strengths (very modest).
1 comment:
Constantin,
This is off topic, but reading analysis and comment at 'True Economics' I often notice there is much analysis done of options for national level in Ireland. However, how important is it to undertake a similar degree of analysis at project level. Reading some literature published by renewable energy concerns, I often come across this need to allow engineers and financiers to speak a mutual language to one another. For instance, this article by a Vermont electricity cooperative in the US, offers some suggestions.
http://www.washingtonelectric.coop/pages/pvecon.pdf
I was linked recently by someone to the tool used by the Canadian government also, for running 'quick and dirty', but reliable feasibility study and analysis of projects. About a third of of the way through this presentation:
http://www.retscreen.net/ang/voice_slides_overview_intro.php
It makes a similar point. That engineers who use simple payback analysis of projects often present a poor picture of an option to the financial side of the team. But when you represent the project in terms of interest on the investment, the option can look a lot better. I know, this is very off topic, but given the fact that Irish may have the IMF involved in its affairs soon, and we have various projects which may require a strong green input into them, I said I would mention the above.
Brian O' Hanlon
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