31/12/2013: Negative equity and entrepreneurship: new evidence

Since the beginning of the crisis, I have written about and presented on the topic of negative equity and its adverse effects on economy and society.

Some of the earlier links on this topic can be found here:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2010/06/15062010-negative-equity-1.html
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2010/06/economics-15062010-negative-equity-2.html
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2010/06/economics-15062010-negative-equity-3.html

One significant adverse effect of negative equity relates to the impact it has (via investment constraints) on entrepreneurship: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2010/01/economics-15012010-negative-equity.html

This month, NBER published yet another study on the above topic, covering the issue of property values impact on collateral availability for entrepreneurial activities.

The study, "Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship" (NBER Working Paper No. w19680) by Martin Schmalz, David Alexandre Spaer and David Thesmar "shows that collateral constraints restrict entrepreneurial activity. Our empirical strategy uses variations in local house prices as shocks to the value of collateral available to individuals owning a house and controls for local demand shocks by comparing entrepreneurial activity of homeowners and renters operating in the same region. We find that an increase in collateral value leads to a higher probability of becoming an entrepreneur."

What is novel to the study results and is also extremely important from economic policy point of view is that "Conditional on entry, entrepreneurs with access to more valuable collateral create larger firms and more value added, and are more likely to survive, even in the long run."

Now, keep in mind - Ireland's politicians and both the previous and current Government officials have been consistently claiming that negative equity only matters when households need to move from their current location to a new residence. In contrast, I have asserted from the start of the crisis that the adverse effects of negative equity are present not only in the context of households moving locations, but also for the households that are staying in their current location and that some of the effects are completely independent from the ability of the households to fund their current mortgages.

Link to the study: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2360948

14/5/2013: Negative Equity and Entrepreneurship: Local Evidence from the US

I have written before about the role positive/negative home equity has on entrepreneurship and real economic activity. Remember, the Irish Government and media believe that negative equity matters only when/if the household wants or needs to move home and that it has no effect outside this scenario.

A recent (March 2013) paper (linked below) from NBER argues very clearly that positive/negative equity has a real positive/negative effect on employment and business creation and that this effect is local to property prices region. In other words, unlike FDI or other foreign investments, home equity impacts domestic investment, locally anchored, and with it - domestic jobs creation.

Adelino, Manuel, Schoar, Antoinette and Severino, Felipe paper "documents the role of the collateral lending channel to facilitate small business starts and self-employment in the period before the financial crisis of 2008. We document that between 2002 and 2007 areas with a bigger run up in house prices experienced a strong increase in employment in small businesses compared to employment in large firms in the same industries. This increase in small business employment was particularly pronounced in (1) industries that need little startup capital and can thus more easily be financed out of increases in housing as collateral; (2) manufacturing industries where goods are shipped over long distances, which rules out that local demand is driving the expansion. We show that this effect is separate from an aggregate demand channel that relies on home equity based borrowing leading to increased demand and employment creation."

Some more granularity to the top-level results [italics are mine]:

"Overall, the evidence we present in this paper identifies the causal effect house prices in the creation of new small firms. These results show that access to collateral allowed individuals to start small businesses or to become self-employed. We conjecture that without access to this collateral in the form of real estate assets, many individuals would not have made the transition from unemployment to starting a new business or self-employment.

We show that the effect of house prices is concentrated in small firms only and had no causal effect  on employment at large firms. [In other words, there is no measurable effect on location competitiveness from house prices. Irish Government claims that residential property prices declines improved Irish competitiveness are not supported by the evidence from the US.]

Importantly, our results also hold when we exclude industries that are most likely to be affected by local demand shocks and when we restrict our attention to manufacturing industries. The effect of house prices is also stronger in industries where the amount of capital needed to start a new firm is lower, consistent with the hypothesis that housing serves as collateral but is not sufficient to fund large capital needs." [This goes to the issue of which types of firms creation benefit most from collateral access. The evidence suggests that smaller firms do so. But the fact that capital constraints bind also suggests that by typology, services firms, which are human capital intensive and require low levels of physical capital, benefit also more than average. Now, Ireland is human capital intensive economy, so draw your own conclusions.]

Adelino, Manuel, Schoar, Antoinette and Severino, Felipe, House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment (March 2013). NBER Working Paper No. w18868. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2230758

31/3/2013: Entrepreneurship and the Great Recession

Staying on the theme of 'catching up with my reading' today - a very interesting paper by Fairlie, Robert W., "Entrepreneurship, Economic Conditions, and the Great Recession" (February 28, 2013). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4140.

From the abstract:

"The “Great Recession” resulted in many business closings and foreclosures, but what effect did it have on business formation?

On the one hand, recessions decrease potential business income and wealth, but on the other hand they restrict opportunities in the wage/salary sector leaving the net effect on entrepreneurship ambiguous.

The most up-to-date microdata available -- the 1996 to 2009 Current Population Survey (CPS) -- are used to conduct a detailed analysis of the determinants of entrepreneurship at the individual level to shed light on this question.

• Regression estimates indicate that local labor market conditions are a major determinant of entrepreneurship. 
• Higher local unemployment rates are found to increase the probability that individuals start businesses. [Note: authors do not control for quality of entrepreneurship, e.g. survivorship rates for entrepreneurial ventures founded by 'forced' entrepreneurs out of unemployment spells]
• Home ownership and local home values for home owners are also found to have positive effects on business creation, but these effects are noticeably smaller. 
• Additional regression estimates indicate that individuals who are initially not employed respond more to high local unemployment rates by starting businesses than wage/salary workers. The results point to a consistent picture – the positive influences of slack labor markets outweigh the negative influences resulting in higher levels of business creation. Using the regression estimates for the local unemployment rate effects, I find that the predicted trend in entrepreneurship rates tracks the actual upward trend in entrepreneurship extremely well in the Great Recession."

Wait, what was that about 'home ownership' and 'local home values'? Sure this is not suggesting that negative equity might have an effect on entrepreneurship? Irish Government & our 'Green Jerseys' say that it only matters when one decides to move...

See three posts from 2010 that I wrote on the topic of Negative Equity effects in Ireland: Post 1, Post 2 and Post 3) and another link from 2010 on the topic of Negative Equity and entrepreneurship (here).