4/10/15: Data is not the end of it all, it’s just one tool...

Recently, I spoke at a very interesting Predict conference, covering the issues of philosophy and macro-implications of data analytics in our economy and society. I posted slides from my presentations earlier here.

Here is a quick interview recorded by the Silicon Republic covering some of the themes discussed at the conference: https://www.siliconrepublic.com/video/data-is-not-the-end-of-it-all-its-just-one-tool-dr-constantin-gurdgiev.

17/9/15: Predict Conference: Data Analytics in the Age of Higher Complexity

This week I spoke at the Predict Conference on the future of data analytics and predictive models. Here are my slides from the presentation:

Key takeaways:

• Analytics are being shaped by dramatic changes in demand (consumer side of data supply), changing environment of macroeconomic and microeconomic uncertainty (risks complexity and dynamics); and technological innovation (on supply side - via enablement that new technology delivers to the field of analytics, especially in qualitative and small data areas, on demand side - via increased speed and uncertainty that new technologies generate)
• On the demand side: consumer behaviour is complex and understanding even the 'simpler truths' requires more than simple data insight; consumer demand is now being shaped by the growing gap between consumer typologies and the behavioural environment;
• On micro uncertainty side, consumers and other economic agents are operating in and environment of exponentially increasing volatility, including income uncertainty, timing variability (lumpiness) of income streams and decisions, highly uncertain environment concerning life cycle incomes and wealth, etc. This implies growing importance of non-Gaussian distributions in statistical analysis of consumer behaviour, and, simultaneously, increasing need for qualitative and small data analytics.
• On macro uncertainty side, interactions between domestic financial, fiscal, economic and monetary systems are growing more complex and systems interdependencies imply growing fragility. Beyond this, international systems are now tightly connected to domestic systems and generation and propagation of systemic shocks is no longer contained within national / regional or even super-regional borders. Macro uncertainty is now directly influencing micro uncertainty and is shaping consumer behaviour in the long run.
• Technology, that is traditionally viewed as the enabler of robust systems responses to risks and uncertainty is now acting to generate greater uncertainty and increase shocks propagation through economic systems (speed and complexity).
• Majority of mechanisms for crisis resolution deployed in recent years have contributed to increasing systems fragility by enhancing over-confidence bias through excessive reliance on systems consolidation, centralisation and technocratic responses that decrease systems distribution necessary to address the 'unknown unknowns' nature of systemic uncertainty. excessive reliance, within business analytics (and policy formation) on Big Data is reducing our visibility of smaller risks and creates a false perception of safety in centralised regulatory and supervisory regimes.
• Instead, fragility-reducing solutions require greater reliance on highly distributed and dispersed systems of regulation, linked to strong supervision, to simultaneously allow greater rate of risk / response discovery and control the downside of such discovery processes. Big Data has to be complemented by more robust and extensive deployment of the 'craft' of small data analytics and interpretation. Small events and low amplitude signals cannot be ignored in the world of highly interconnected systems.
• Overall, predictive data analytics will have to evolve toward enabling a shift in our behavioural systems from simple nudging toward behavioural enablement (via automation of routine decisions: e.g. compliance with medical procedures) and behavioural activation (actively responsive behavioural systems that help modify human responses).

17/10/2013: Customer-Activated Enterprise: External & Internal Influencers

In the previous post I covered a few quick ideas that stemmed from the recently published IBM's Institute for Business Value CxO-level study: "The Customer-activated Enterprise: Insights from the Global C-suite Study" (available here: http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/en/gbe03572usen/GBE03572USEN.PDF).

As I noted - this is an absolutely 'a must' read for anyone interested in the future directions for interactions between customer-driven value added activities and enterprise structures and strategies. It subtly, quietly punches beyond the 'ritualistic' tech-saves-us-all hype and into the deeper thinking inhabiting today's C-level offices. This is good. Very good. Less brand futurism, more future-focused pragmatism.

So another fascinating insight (my judgement, of course, as are the comments presented here).

Based on this guide: Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), Chief Finance Officers (CFOs), Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs), Chief Information Officers (CIOs), Chief Marketing Officers (CMOs), Chief Supply Chain Officers (CSCOs), let's re-weight by removing 'own' functions of the CxOs:

1) Technology Factors (ex-CIOs) score 11 points
2) Market Factors (ex-CMOs) score 8 points
3) Macro-economic Factors (ex-CFOs) score 19 points
4) People Skills (ex-CHRO) score 26 points
5) Regulatory Concerns (ex-CSCOs) score 20 points
6) Socio-economic Factors (ex-CMOs) score 35 points
7) Globalisation (ex-CEOs) score 37 points
8) Environmental Issues (ex-CMOs) score 36 points
9) Geopolitical Factors (ex-CEOs) score 41 points.

So re-weighted prioritisation is:
Top tier priorities:
Top 1: Market Factors (ex-CMOs) score 8 points - Second Priority for CEOs
Top 2: Technology Factors (ex-CIOs) score 11 points - First Priority for CEOs
Top 3: Macro-economic Factors (ex-CFOs) score 19 points - Third Priority for CEOs
Second tier priorities:
Top 4: Regulatory Concerns (ex-CSCOs) score 20 points - Fifth Priority for CEOs
Top 5: People Skills (ex-CHRO) score 26 points - Fourth Priority for CEOs

The CEO position (2013) overlap is provided directly from the chart below:

Note that the CEOs priorities are not that distant from the priorities of the overall CxO suite priorities once we remove actual direct stakeholders in each priority area.

Also note that top 5 priorities today (as outlined in top 2 tiers above) are consistent themes from at least 2006 survey on. This is aligned, in my view, with the shifting nature of strategic transformation drivers and the input of external sources into strategic influence formation at the C-level:

Notice that C-suite influence is proximate in importance to Customers input and Board input. In the future, with partnerships and networks of value-added expected to both expand and deepen, including growth in customer-partnership models, this is likely to change. We can expect more heterogeneity in perceived influencing factors across the C-suite and the rise of key external business partners and non-executive senior leadership roles in contributing to strategic influence formation. I suspect the C-level and Board inputs will be downgraded.

Something to watch… but here's a suggestive sub-trend:

Can you open up the structures without bringing up the roles of key partners and internal non-execs? I don't think so...

17/10/2013: Customer-Activated Enterprise Research: Partnerships & Value-Added

I recently wrote about the upcoming publication of the IBM's Institute for Business Value CxO-level study: "The Customer-activated Enterprise: Insights from the Global C-suite Study" - the link to the original post is here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/592013-ibm-64-of-global-cmos-want-to.html

Now the study is out and available here: http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/en/gbe03572usen/GBE03572USEN.PDF

Some interesting insights from it will be forthcoming over the next few days as I slowly digest the paper (slowly - due to time constraints and not due to the nature of this superb piece of research).

First instalment a chart plotting CxOs' view of major changes in the business landscape in the next three to five years.

Note the emphasis on (opinions and views are my own - on foot of my interpretation of the data presented):
1) Bigger partner network is seen as a crucial trend changer by 73% of CxO executives - which is inherently driving the strategic focus of the enterprise development toward more diversified base of partnerships and networks.
2) Social and digital interactions are displacing face-to-face interactions and this implies that social and digital platforms will have to become also key tools for development and deployment of partnerships. End result of this (1) and (2) nexus is that business models will have to expand horizontally and beyond traditional nodes of corporate management and control. Risk will rise, uncertainty will rise both in scope and complexity.
3) This is supported by the shift in the partnerships nature: from lower emphasis on efficiency-driven partnerships toward more value-adding partnerships. In other words, not sub-contracting to specific tasks, but expansion of R&D, strategy and value-adding chains beyond the bounds of the traditional enterprise. This is very exciting, but adds even more complexity and uncertainty as well as more disruption to traditional (vertical or hierarchical) enterprise structures.
4) Focus on customer as individuals focus shift suggests that the era of Big Data will be moving toward the era of Small Data - greater granularity to follow with greater customisation. These can only be delivered via fluid, dynamic, non-contractual partnerships arrangements. Networks, not managerialism.
5) Not surprisingly, operational control weakens, organisational openness rises.

Much of the same that I have been talking about at TEDx Dublin and more recently at Alltech's Presidents Club meeting. You can also see my ideas on MNCs-led partnerships by searching this blog.