Two charts for some Friday night thinking instead of (or even while) drinking. One courtesy of Lorcan Roche Kelly flagging it on twitter (link here):
No, it's not Nouriel Roubini references that are of import in the above - entertaining as they might be - it's the likely pending reversal in the series that some techies have noticed. Hope you are not too long into the weekend...
Second chart is my own. I took a simple ratio (expressed in %) of General Government Deficit to Structural Deficit to highlight the extent of the spending related to excess over structural imbalances, in other words - to show some pro- and counter-cyclicality. Underlying data came from IMF WEO.
Some points worth noting: US has been running expansionary (in excess of structural) deficits since 2007 and these have peaked in 2009. UK started slightly later - in 2009 and will be running these through the entire forecast period. Here's an interesting thing - for all the austerity claims in the UK, ordinary deficits are expected to run above structural deficits all the way through 2016.
No, it's not Nouriel Roubini references that are of import in the above - entertaining as they might be - it's the likely pending reversal in the series that some techies have noticed. Hope you are not too long into the weekend...
Second chart is my own. I took a simple ratio (expressed in %) of General Government Deficit to Structural Deficit to highlight the extent of the spending related to excess over structural imbalances, in other words - to show some pro- and counter-cyclicality. Underlying data came from IMF WEO.
Some points worth noting: US has been running expansionary (in excess of structural) deficits since 2007 and these have peaked in 2009. UK started slightly later - in 2009 and will be running these through the entire forecast period. Here's an interesting thing - for all the austerity claims in the UK, ordinary deficits are expected to run above structural deficits all the way through 2016.
