12/03/2011: Updated probabilities of default

Weekly close data-based estimates of the probability of default on Irish sovereign bonds, based on yields. Note: these are mathematical estimates based on what the markets price in. All complaints should be addressed to the markets.

Marked in black bold are probabilities in excess of 40% (or statistically indistinguishable to 40%) - the benchmark that in the CDS markets considered to be crisis levels of probability of default.

Most of the risk is now concentrated, based on spreads in 3-year horizon, while in absolute terms the markets perceive risk peaking at or before 5 year horizon.

04/03/2011: Default probabilities

Some people were asking me recently to give an estimate of the sovereign default probabilities for Ireland based on bonds yields. Here are two tables providing an answer -

1. The first table covers yesterday close yields on generic IRL bonds by maturity
2. The second estimates probability of default, using, as risk-free rates German yields on comparable paper

Basically, there is a 90% chance of a default (20% haircut) within 10 years and 15% chance of such an event within the year.

The estimates are very much approximate as we use only yields.