Bill Gross of Pimco issued his 'twitter-cast' for 2013:
Gross: 2013 Fearless Forecasts:
- Stocks & bonds return less than 5% (so shallower returns for 2013 across both asset classes than in 2012, e.g. S&P500 YTD gain of 12.2%, US 10year Treasury yield index down from 1.880 to 1.7574 YTD)
- Unemployment stays at 7.5% or higher
- Gold goes up (no indication by how much, but gold rose 6.3% in 2012 and is now on the longest price appreciation trend since 1920, having clocked 12th consecutive annual gain)
- 5yr US Treasuries yield 0.70% by end of 2013 (5yr Ts started 2012 at 0.830 yield and closed off on 0.7229)
- Dollar declines (see below)
- Oil above USD100 at 'some point in year' (WTI is now down 8% for 2012 on foot of shale gas boom in the US, with WTI-Brent spread averaging at a discount USD17.44/barrel against a premium of USD0.95 for the 10 years period through 2010 (according to Bloomberg data). Brent was up 2.8% this year - a fourth consecutive annual gain. The significance of shale effect is hard to overestimate: US crude production is at 6/985 million barrels per day - the highest since 1993.)
And couple of precedent 'tweeter-casts':
Two charts for USD and Euro YTD changes:
Update: fresh closing data: Nasdaq Comp up almost 16% y/y, DJIA up 7.3% and S&P 500 up 13%.
