24/1/16: High Yield Bonds Flash Red for Growth

An interesting regularity in the markets observed by JPM research: High Yield debt as a lead indicator of recessions… and of equities…

Self-explanatory…

Some more academic links on the high yield bonds forward prediction of business cycles:

• Via credit risk channel: Wang, Pengfei and Miao, Jianjun, "Credit Risk and Business Cycles" (September 8, 2010)
• Via productivity channel: Estevão, Marcello M. and Severo, Tiago, "Financial Shocks and TFP Growth" (Janurary 2010). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-35, 2010
• Via yield curve shape: Peña, Juan Ignacio and Rodríguez, Rosa, "On the Economic Link Between Asset Prices and Real Activity". Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 34, Nos. 5-6, pp. 889-916, June/July 2007. 

31/12/15: 2016 Bonds Market Outlook

My take on 2016 outlook for bond markets for Manning Financial is available here: http://issuu.com/publicationire/docs/mf_newsletter_22122015_web?e=16572344/32155392 (see page 5)

Or you can click on the following images to enlarge