20/2/17: CESIfo on Potential Gains from EU-EEC Trade Agreement

An interesting study from German's CESIfo on the potential impact of a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Community: http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/publications/docbase/details.html?docId=19267749.

Top of the line conclusions:

• EU side: "According to Ifo’s research results, a comprehensive agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Community could lead to a 0.2 percent increase in real per capita income in the EU, corresponding to an annual EUR 91 upturn in per capita income." Of these, 31 billion euros in benefits are expected to accrue to Germany (net impact for Germany will be 22 billion euros due to increased Russian exports to Germany.
• Russian side: "For Russia this increase could be as high as three percent or EUR 235 per year. “These income gains stem from the fact that the economic structures on all sides are highly complementary.” Of these some EUR 71 billion is expected to come from increased exports from Russia to the EU states. Additional EUR 6 billion in exports increases will come from rising efficiencies in Russian trade outside the EU.
• Key obstacles: “A free trade agreement is barely conceivable as long as the Ukraine conflict remains unsettled. Such a pact could nevertheless form an integral part of a new strategic partnership between the EU and Russia” 

15/8/15: EEU: Kyrgyzstan the latest addition

On August 12, Kyrgyzstan became a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), joining Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. Kyrgyzstan is the least developed of the EEU economies, relatively proximate only to Armenia in the group.

4/1/2015: Eurasian Economic Union: Extra "E" & Less of "U"

In other 'Russia et al' news, Eurasian Economic Union came into force this week. This includes original founders (2010): Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, plus Armenia which joined in October 2014. In May, Kyrgyzstan is expected to join, having signed formal agreement last month.

Here's a summary of the EEU economic position, based on IMF data and forecasts.

The EEU objective is to increase economic integration and coordination within the sub-set of CIS states. Like the EU, it also sets a target of achieving integrated energy and capital markets.

In 2012, the EEU founding states agreed to implement free mobility of labour and capital, as well as free movement of goods and services. While there were transitionary periods set, integration to-date has been relatively limited and in recent months it came under increasing pressure, primarily driven by Belarus, but also, to a lesser extent, by tougher-talking Kazakhstan.

Ruble crisis certainly not making things easier. In recent weeks, there have been renewed border inspections between Russia and Belarus, and the latter demanded that trade with Russia be settled in foreign currency, not Ruble.