16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.

As always, the table is presented in two parts:

Here are some summary cases:

The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world's population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically 'average' to being 'worse than average' to join the U.S. and other heavily-impacted countries. 

Summary of descriptive statistics:

In terms of overall performance, thee U.S. ranks 9th worst in the league of countries with > 100,000 cases, while the EU27, if it was a country of its own, would have ranked 18th. The UK ranks 9th worst, Spain 5th worst. Peru is the worst impacted country with more than 100,000 cases, followed by Belgium in the 2nd place, Bolivia in the 3rd and Brazil in thee 4th.

Stay tuned for my usual in-depth look at the U.S. vs EU27.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:

Cases:

• As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. 
• The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.
• Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.
• The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.
• All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of COVID19 pandemic.

Deaths:

• The slight reduction in daily counts we've seen between the first week of August and the end of September is now fully exhausted. 
• Over the last 7 days, daily death counts averaged 5,135 worldwide, which is slightly below the 30-days average of 5,486,  but rising once again.
• October (to-date) average daily growth rate in deaths is 17.62%, which is massive, compared to September's 9.99%, and to falling rate of -2.41% recorded in August. October rate is so far three times higher than June-July rate.
• Note that October to-date rate of growth in new cases is pretty close to the rate of growth in new deaths. This is worrying, because it seems to contradict some claims made in the media about allegedly rapidly declining mortality of COVID19.

Net: rates of growth:

You can see the trends discussed above in the chart: from April through July, we witness sustained case of daily deaths growth rates running below the new cases growth rates. Starting with the fourth week of July, this relationship breaks down. 

The above fact suggests that it is too premature to claim that COVID19 pandemic is on track to containment: both cases and deaths numbers indicate that the global pandemic has returned to an accelerating phase of its dynamics, 

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:

• 14-days MA of deaths has risen since the lows of ca 100/day to current levels of ca 140/day.
• Stripping out some volatility induced by the timings of reports, deaths are on a rising trend signalling the onset of the second wave of the pandemic around the first week of September.
• Overall, Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19 that started around the last week of August (in terms of new cases numbers).

Russia recorded an average of 9,474 new cases per day in the last 7 days, up on 7,140 in the prior seven days period. In attributed daily deaths, current 7-days average is 156 against prior 7-days average of 128.

Here are peer comparatives:

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

• There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
• The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
• EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
• 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
• In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:

• New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
• Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 

The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 

• We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/25920-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. 

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 

Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19, although it is still in the early stages of this development:

Russia first started to impose lockdowns around March 2, which lasted through mid-June (an earlier partial lifting of lockdowns in Moscow took place in the first week of June). The lockdowns coincided with much lower daily cases and deaths than are being registered currently, but despite this, Russia is not currently planning to impose stricter controls on social activities in the wake of the accelerating pandemic numbers. The reason for this is the expressed hope that the recently-released vaccine against the COVID19 will be widely available to the general population by November 2020. The vaccine does not have an independent peer-validated confirmation of its effectiveness so far. 

Here is a table summarizing Russia's relative positioning compared to other BRIICS, the EU27 and the U.S.:

Note: data excludes China, for two reasons: (1) China's officially-reported case numbers are less than 100,000, and (2) I have zero credibility in China's officially reported COVID19 statistics, so while questions can and should be raised about robustness of data reported in BRIICS overall, China's data suggests an altogether novel levels of data manipulation compared to its peers.

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

 Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:

The U.S. continues to 'lead' the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. 

While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. 

Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.

Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the EU27, as ranked based on three criteria (cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case)

• The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer,
• The EU27 ranks 16th worst performer
• The U.S. ranks worse than any EU27 member state in the 100K table, with exception of Spain (ranked 3rd worst).

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

This week's update on worldwide numbers for the pandemic:

New cases are now trending up once again, as the world continues to experience the first wave of the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, new deaths remain relatively stable at highly elevated levels. The local trough in deaths counts that took place at the first week of June is now firmly surpassed and we are still close to the post-trough peak. 

The above conclusions are also confirmed by the growth rates which have ticked up significantly in the second half of September.

To see the trends more clearly:

Key takeaways from the above charts and tables:

• As of 12/09/2020, we have once again surpassed past all-time peak and are currently running at historical highs in terms of new cases.
• Local peak in daily deaths counts was attained in the first week of August. From then on, we are witnessing a mild moderation in daily deaths counts.  
• However, we are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• There is absolutely no evidence of any moderation in the global pandemic numbers, and there are alarming trends in the numbers coming from the geographies that have experienced the most severe first wave of the pandemic prior, namely Europe (see net post on this).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with more than 100,000 cases

 
Some descriptive stats and relative rankings for countries with the largest number of cases:

In terms of relative and population-adjusted performance metrics:

• The U.S. ranks 6th highest in the pandemic extent (number of positive cases per 1 million of population). The EU27 as a whole ranks 23rd highest.
• The U.S. ranks 8th highest in terms of deaths per capita (number of deaths per 1 million of population). The EU 27 ranks 14th highest.
• The U.S. ranks 18th highest in terms of mortality rates (deaths per case). The EU 27 ranks 7th highest. 
• The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world's population, but the country accounts for 24% of all global cases, and 22% of all deaths. In comparison, the EU27 accounts for 6% of the world's population, 8% of all cases, and 16% of all deaths.
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison (32 sum score) is worse than that of the EU (44 sum score), Italy (35 sum score), Israel (64 sum score), Germany (70 sum score), France (37 sum score), and Canada (51 sum score).
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison is better than that of Spain (23 sum score) and the UK (29 sum score).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Global cases are now once again on the rise and hitting new historical highs:

Daily deaths are running at elevated levels and showing signs of some uptick on the recent local lows:

As the result, both new cases counts and deaths growth rates are now positive and rising:

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage across the globe, without any moderation. Significantly, there is now a full-blown second wave underway in Europe (more on this later). 

13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia and BRIICS

 Updating my long-overdue charts for Coronavirus pandemic in Russia:

One worrying trend is the uptick in smoothed data for new cases in the last two weeks and a smaller corresponding increase in new deaths, as noted in the chart above.

Looking at the controversial mortality rates:

To highlight the above, consider the following differences between some key countries/country groups:

Note: China does not enter the comparatives, since it has, officially, less than 100,000 cases to-date.

12/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The global COVID19 pandemic is refusing to go away. Day 247 and the dynamics of new cases and daily deaths remain as worrying as ever, just as the public and the politicians have largely settled into the strange 'ignore and forget' pattern of thinking about the threats.

Here are the daily new cases and deaths charts:

Key takeaways from the above two charts are:

1. There is no amelioration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of new cases: we are still at the peak levels of contagion worldwide.
2. Earlier hopes for decline in new cases worldwide has now been replaced by a re-acceleration in the new cases arrivals.
3. Historical average daily new cases is 115,366. Last 30 days average is 263,940 new cases per day and last 7 days average is 267,832. The pandemic is getting worse, not better.
4. Historical average daily deaths is 3,710. In the last 30 days, the average has been 5,603 and in the last seven days, 5,863. 
5. The peak of daily deaths occurred back in mid-April owing to a number of factors, that can be considered as exceptional. These include heavy concentration of COVID19 cases, lack of medical experience in treating COVID19 cases, demographic biases in early wave of COVID19 cases, and so on. On-trend, the peak was around 7,000 daily deaths.
6. Since the peak, daily deaths counts did not decay beyond the local trough around the end of May - a trough that was less than 50 percent lower than the peak (not an impressive moderation for a pandemic). The trough was set at around 4,050 daily deaths.
7. Since then, however, matters worsened once again, with a new local peak reached at around 6,000 cases in the last week of July. Deaths counts have been bouncing around 5,600-5,700 daily cases since then.

These worrying numbers are confirmed by the dynamics - the rates of change in the series:

As you can see from the chart above, the data is exhibiting a risk of rapid re-acceleration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of both, new case numbers and deaths. Of course, the data is volatile, so it is hard to tell if the new re-acceleration of growth rates to 15.8 and 24.4 percent for new cases and deaths, respectively, is going to hold. Nonetheless, nominally, we are no longer witnessing the second derivative (acceleration) moderating. Which means we are at a risk of rising severity of the already horrific trend. 

Here is a handy summary table of comparative growth rates:

Please note, these are growth rates that are already smoothed by using 7 days average! 

Fir numbers geeks amongst us, here is a summary table of comparatives for 33 countries, plus the EU27, that have more than 100,000 cases reported. Last time I updated these figures on August 30, there were 30 countries in this club.

Due to deterioration in the global pandemic conditions, EU27 is now ranked as an 'average' (statistically) territory. The U.S. remains 'worse than average'. 

The same table by aggregating countries by some internationally-recognized groupings:

And a descriptive statistics table for all countries with > 100,000 cases:

In summary, the pandemic is not going away. We are months before the start of the 'normal' flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, when temperatures outside force much of the activity - work, social, personal - indoors and into closer proximity to others. More inclement weather is coming to the largest concentrations of people on Earth, not only in Europe (already living through the second wave of the pandemic) and North America (still struggling with the first wave), but also to Asia-Pacific and the likes of India (which already outpaced Brazil to the second place in terms of infections after the World Series leader, the US of A). 

The brighter news on the horizon, currently, are the news relating to the vaccines development. But these vaccines are unlikely to hit mass markets any time soon, at least not before the October-November flu season onset. 

30/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating charts for COVID19 worldwide data, with main comments in the charts:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat (running at approximately constant rate) at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day). This suggest that although pandemic growth rate has fallen to close to zero, the pandemic continues.
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 259,500, with the current 7-days average at 255,986. This implies a mild moderation in the rate of daily cases arrivals that statistically is close to nil, as noted above.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 25 in 5 days, which is an improvement on the mid-August trends.
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 240-245,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic. This conclusion is further supported by the evidence that Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific where the pandemic's first wave started earlier in the year are now experiencing robust increases in new cases (see subsequent post on EU27 data).

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. Last 7 days average is -0.86%. This suggests that slight moderation in new death counts experience earlier in August has been declining toward zero in more recent days.
• In the mean time, daily deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,726 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,360.

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.27% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. 

Due to steadily increasing number of countries with large number of cases, I have adjusted my summary tables and analysis for countries with largest impact of the pandemic to those with 100K+ cases (prior tables covered countries with 25K+ cases):

Key conclusion: the pandemic remains unabated. The rates of growth in cases and deaths might be moderating, but daily counts of both remain high and consistent with peak levels of the pandemic. We are now 6 months into the full pandemic development and there are few signs of any material improvements on the ground. Almost 25 million people have now been officially identified as being infected and almost 840,000 people have died from the condition, per official counts.