11/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

We are becoming numb to the sheer size of the public health disaster that is unfolding in the U.S. Numb, careless and utterly devoid of any concern for those around us. Here are the latest numbers:

See the dashed orange line in the chart below? That is the count of total COVID19-attributed deaths in the U.S. 

Yes, it has been thus from July 12 on: the U.S. continues to pull away from Europe in terms of total deaths counts. Higher testing rates, or better health care system, or the American Way of Life are clearly not doing anything worth hanging on the wall as a point of pride: Americans are dying from the disease that the rest of the developed world has managed to contain (at least for now). 

The #COVIDIOTS crowd is reproducing on social media various shades of logical garbage, along the line of 'My neighbour was reported to have died from COVID19, even though he was hit by a car" as some sort of a palatably consistent argument that coronavirus pandemic is just a 'Democrats Hoax' or a conspiracy of the 'doctors and the 1-percenters'. Yet, the reality is that even if you assume (do not do this at home) that some 25% of COVID19 attributed deaths are 'fake' or 'errors', you still get U.S. death rates from COVID19 in excess of those in thee EU27. 

Facts:

• Current U.S. death rate per capita is 63 percent above that for the EU27. Two week ago, this gap was 49 percent.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +27,104 up from +12,913 a month ago.
• Even without timing adjustment, current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. (499.6) is in excess of the EU27 (307.0).
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-310 per 1 million.U.S. death rate per capita continues to rise.
• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 54,489 new cases per day and 1,036 deaths per day. Over the same time, EU27 averaged 9,842 new cases per day and 105 deaths per day.
• Note 1: European cases are rising once again (chart below) - a worrying sign that relaxing some of the restrictions might be triggering a risk of a new wave of the pandemic.
• Note 2: As the second chart below shows, there is some indication that European deaths are also rising, albeit with a less pronounced trend than new cases.

It is extremely frustrating for all of us involved with policy formation, statistical data flows, news flows and systemic analysis to watch, paralyzed by the large swaths of American public and political leadership virtual indifference, as the pandemic continues to rage across the country. The U.S. entered this pandemic 

1. At a later date than the EU27 - implying better capacity to prepare, test, diagnose, treat and triage pandemic victims;
2. With a younger (albeit hardly healthier) population than the EU27 - implying lower mortality from thee disease;
3. With vastly more financial and physical resources deployed in healthcare system - implying greater theoretical capacity to deal with the disease;
4. With demographics physically distributed in less densely populated areas - implying lower rate of contagion from the disease, all things being held equal;
5. With some of the Asian and European experiences and best practices already taking shape and becoming available to doctors, managers, public officials, elected politicians - implying theoretical faster 'learning curve' for the U.S.

None of this mattered in the end: the politics of 'exceptionalism' and the unfit-for-purpose public health provision systems too their toll. The U.S. now accounts for roughly 25% of all global cases (officially detected) and for 22% of world's deaths. The country only accounts for 4% of the global population.