Wednesday, March 25, 2020

24/3/20: Q2 2020 S&P 500 Earnings Outlook: Not As Ugly as It Will Be

Per Factset March 23 report, "the aggregate earnings growth rate for Q2 2020 changed from slight year-over-year earnings growth on March 12 (+0.8%) to a slight year-over-year earnings decline on March 13 (-0.7%)." Note: back at the end of January 2020, the expectation was for y/y growth of 5.9 percent. Worse, "expectations for earnings growth for Q2 2020 have been falling over the past few months. On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2020 was 8.0%. By December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 5.7%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -3.9%."

"Four of the 11 sectors are now projected to report a year-over-year decrease in earnings for the second quarter: Energy (-68.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-14.4%), Industrials (-9.9%), and Financials (-7.4%)."

All of that, before the second half of March kicked in...

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