Monday, March 23, 2020

23/3/20: Private Consumption Gets the Virus. Heads to an ICU...

Via @bkollmeyer, Deutsche Bank's Research chart on discretionary spending across the global economy:

I have no access to the primary data on this, but if the chart is true, the global economy is 'borked'. 

One notable line here is for Ireland. Ireland's economy is heavily dependent on personal consumption expenditure. Here are the latest data:
    PC as % of
        PC as %          of GNI*
201958.7               NA

My estimate is that 2019 Personal Consumption to GNI* ratio was around 55.2%. If true, coupled with the above-cited DB research, Irish economy has taken a nosedive of around 4 percentage points for FY 2020 just on personal consumption side of economic activity. Investment and private sector production will be the other contributors to that decline.

No comments: