30/07/2011: High level data on Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

Let's update the latest stats on retail sales in Ireland and consumer confidence - a separate, more detailed post will look on the specifics of the retail sales data.

The volume of retail sales rose 0.2% in June 2011 yoy and +1.1% mom. However, all of the increases were accounted for by motor sales.

The value of retail sales rose +0.4% in June 2011 yoy and +0.7% mom. Again, all effects are due to motor sales increases.

Provisional estimates for Q2 2011 show the volume of retail sales fell by 1.7% yoy and rose 1.8% qoq. Once again, the figures were dramatically improved by motor sales.

Consumer confidence, measured by the ESRI index have posted a dramatic drop in June from 59.4 in May to 56.3. Index is now 5.38% down qoq, 5.219% down mom and 17.084% down yoy.

So while overall retail sales indices signal some slight improvements in conditions, consumer confidence indicator shows that in months ahead there is likely to be renewed pressure on retail sales. In fact, of course, there is no divergence between the two sets of indicators, as retail sales continue to fall when taken on ex-motors basis.

Longer-term averages also suggest further softening in the retails sales
Three months moving averages are now:

• Index of Value of retail sales up 0.49% qoq, 0.189% up mom and 1.743% down yoy
• Index of Volume of retail sales up 1.276% qoq, 0.253% up mom and 2.218% down yoy
• Consumer confidence is up 23.291% qoq, 5.426% up mom and 8.299% down yoy.