06/06/2011: Putting IMF's comment against data

According to the report by RTE: "The acting Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund has said Ireland's economic recovery programme 'appears to be on track'... However it still requires what he described as 'forthright action by the Irish authorities to re-establish the basis for sustained growth.' Mr Lipsky said there were positive signs in the Irish economy, such as a return to export growth. However Mr Lipsky described Ireland's economic recovery as 'a difficult challenge'." [emphasis is mine]

One cannot expect RTE news to critically challenge Mr Lipsky on his pronouncements, but... can someone ask Mr Lipsky what did he mean by the 'positive signs in the Irish economy, such as a return to export growth'?

Here are two charts showing that export growth did not return to Ireland any time recently, but in fact was here for some months before IMF showed up in Dublin and certainly well before this year.
So let's give Mr Lipsjy a quick briefing:

• Irish exports reached their recession bottom at the annual value of €82.238 in 2009. Hence the growth in Irish exports returned in 2010 when annual exports value rose to €89.427bn.
• In terms of annual trade balance, local minimum occurred in 2007 when Irish trade balance stood at €25.740bn. Since then, every year throughout the crisis our trade balance grew, reaching €43.785bn in 2010.
• In monthly time series, our exports reached the bottom of the cycle in December 2009.
• Relative to 2003-present trend, March 2010 was the month when Irish exports have fully recovered from the recession. That is full 8 months before IMF waltzed into Dublin and full 14 months before Mr Lipsky discovered our return to export growth.
• In terms of Trade Surplus, Irish external trade has 'returned to growth' back in January 2009, when our monthly exports exceeded long-term trend.
• Lastly, if we are to take Mr Lipsky's phrase on its face value, the return to growth in our exports dates back to January 2010 (17 months before Mr Lipsky's statement recognizing the phenomenon) and our trade balance (monthly series) returned to growth in January 2008.