Sunday, March 27, 2011

27/03/2011: Annual GDP and GNP - few lessons to be learned

I haven't had time to update QNA numbers on the blog, but here's a nice preview charts of analysis to come.

First annual GDP and GNP:
When I often say that over the last 3 years we've lost a war, I mean it: relative to peak 2007 levels, our real GDP is down 12%, our GNP is down 16%. Our 2010 GNP clocked the level of 2003-2004 average, erasing 7 years of growth. Our GDP is now at the level of 2004-2005.

What about the composition of our GDP and GNP?

The above is just a snapshot. Here are headline figures:
  • Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector output in constant prices is now 10% down on 2007 (remember - we were supposedly having a boom in this sector in 2010 according to the various CAP-dependent quangoes, and still the preliminary output came out at a miserly €3,328 million - the lowest in 8 years).
  • Industry had a better year, with output rising to €48,111 million, up on €45,841 million in 2009, but still 7% down on 2007.
  • Building & construction sector shrunk 58% on 2007 levels, posting output worth just €5,754 million in 2010, down on €8,433 million in already abysmal 2009.
  • Distribution, Transport and Communications sector shrunk 13% in 2010 relative to 2007. 2010 sector output was €21,509 million against 2009 level of €21,845 million.
  • Other services have fared better than other sectors, posting a decline of 6% on 2007 levels. In 2010 the sector brought into this economy €71,828 million against €73,823 million recorded in 2009.
  • Public Administration and Defence - the sector that has been allegedly (per our Government and Unions claims) hit very hard by the austerity has managed to "contribute" €6,243 million in 2010 - slightly down on €6,416 million in real euros in 2009. Relative to peak 2007 levels, Public Administration and Defence "contribution" to our GDP/GNP has fallen by a whooping ZERO percent. That's right - zero percent. In 2007 the 'sector' posted GDP contribution of €6,266 million.
  • Taxes, net of subsidies, have fallen 31% in 2010 relative to 2007 and 'contributed' just €16,027 million in 2010 compared to €16,807 million in 2009. Tax hikes are working marvels for the Government, then. Keep on the course, Captain!
  • Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World has increased steadily from 2007 levels, posting an outflow of -€29,313 million in 2010, up on outflow of -€28,184 in 2009 and a massive 31% above 2007 levels. These outflows represent the GDP/GNP gap that has expanded from 15.17% local minimum in 2006 to 21.67% today.
Now, let's take a look at percentage contributions to GDP and GNP from each line of QNA:
So while economy shrunk, Public Administration and Defence grew in overall importance as a share of GDP.


Kevin said...

Great charts - they paint the picture very clearly indeed.

Tax hikes are working marvels for the Government, then. Keep on the course, Captain!

Is it apparent that they aren't working? Would you really suggest maintaining lower tax rates as a realistic policy for avoiding the falls in taxes less subsidies revenue that we've seen since 2007?

In any case, changing tack now seems unlikely to happen, at least not before some improvement in labour market conditions.

Anonymous said...

We are finished. Default is certain. Irish debt to GDP ration = 1300%!! (the zeros are real it is 1300%!) USA = 94%. Go figure. How much longer will this charade continue? When will the clowns stop playing the same tired old tune and get real. Only question to ask is how much more of our childrens future are they going to waste before they pull the plug???

Fungus the Photo! said...

This is a depression. We need joined up thinking.

Default will come but only after we have received more largesse from the EU.

We have time to reorganize into genuine self government. After that, the EU will be in no position to lend to anyone. So there will be no deficits then!

Harsher times, because the Irish were feckless with their votes. Lowry back on top? Do the Irish deserve democracy?

If we reward criminals because they "look after" others, we degenerate into kleptocracy.

The figures Constantin put up, show declines and these will continue as the talented leave as they will not participate in a kleptocracy. Those who cannot be employed elsewhere, will flock to Ireland with its cheap rents and poorly enforced laws. It will become a failed then a rogue state.

Greg said...

Where did the Irish Central Bank "get" €50,000,000,000?

Did you give it to them?

Sean said...

"Our 2010 GNP clocked the level of 2003-2004 average, erasing 7 years of growth."

Is this a fair comment, growth stopped in 2007? Shouldn't it read erasing 3 years of growth.

Indeed those 3 years were unsustainable construction related growth. Is it really that bad to be back at 2003/2004 levels, obviously not good for the exchequer but isn't this close to where the real economy should have been?

nuig economics said...

I wonder what is your take on the situation with federal government and how its showdown will affect our exports long run. Thanks

Anonymous said...

has this site expired?

cto_maverick said...

This graphic from today's FT illustrates very clearly the depth of our predicament

Brian O' Hanlon said...


How about this for a graphic? Some lessons to be learned?


Brian O' Hanlon