Economics 13/03/2010: Why Farmleigh report falls flat

I must confess, last week produced a bumper crop of new (and old) 'proposals' for fixing Ireland. Tasc had one (the Letter of 28) - it was utterly unworkable, self-interested and dogmatic - despite the fact that its desired objectives were predominantly positive. Task Force on Innovation had one - it was painfully lengthy, saccharine and dogmatic in its own way. An idea that Ireland can create high-tech jobs bu busloads was simply beyond any support and the analysis produced in Chapter 13 to support this assertion is exceptionally naive.

In between, largely unnoticed, was the missive issued by the Department of Foreign Affairs titled simply "Progress Report on Follow up to The Global Irish Economic Forum".

This unassuming publication is, nonetheless, the official endorsement of the expensive, though originally ambitious (deflated by the DofFA bureaucrats/organizers who went through the original list of invitees with a red pencil removing any potential 'trouble makers' - aka original thinkers) undertaking back in September 2009. It is full of woolly and teary-in-the-eyes stuff that doesn't deserve much attention, except that it puts Ireland Inc to international public view. DofFA aims this report not so much at us, the residents, but at the foreign 'diaspora' - and through them - at international markets.

So let's take a quick scalpel to that boil.

Per DofFA: "The emphasis in the Budget [2010] on encouraging innovation, maintaining Ireland as a friendly and supportive environment for international business, and highlighting emerging strengths in areas such as renewable energy, green technology, scientific research and innovation, all reflect the concerns and views put forward by those present at Farmleigh."

Of course, DofFA would do well to read the Budget. It has a tax break for booze (un-passable to consumers) and a tax break for new cars (passable to German, Japanese and other producers of these). Which part relates to 'encouraging innovation' etc? On Green - there is a new tax, but no 'highlighting emerging strengths'. Page 3 of the said DofFA report therefore already contains a very sever stretch of 'truth in reporting' concept.

The report, worryingly, brings up numerous references to direct and indirect Exchequer financing for expanded post-Farmleigh 'Network' of 'Global Irish' (or shall we call them 'Glorish'?). On our knees economically, we, the resident population will be floating financially such worthy causes as 'regional' Farmleigh-style gatherings around the world, Ministers participation at these, an hereto invisible organization called Irish Technology Leadership Group in Silicon Valley, and one Irish Innovation Centre, plus other activities. 'Glorish Youth Farmleigh' junket is planned as well.

Perhaps the most grotesque (and from my point of view is the idea of going to the Irish diaspora worldwide hat-in-hand to get some cash for the Exchequer. "Diaspora Bond: the Minister for Finance announced in Budget 2010 that the NTMA and his Department will develop a National Solidarity Bond which will be available for investment in 2010. Initially, the bond is expected to be available to Irish residents. The NTMA, the Department of Finance and relevant Departments are examining the feasibility of extending it to non-residents and how to successfully market it abroad, including through Irish Diplomatic Missions."

I commented before on the notion that our Government (and some of its close allies on the Left) have somehow gotten into their minds that they can sell this 'Tin Whistle & Shamrocks' bond for more than they are selling ordinary bonds. It is simply naive. Any yield offered on these bonds will require a premium over ordinary bonds issued to the international investor community. Why? Because this Government has shown to the entire world that it is willing to sacrifice domestic investors for the sake of protecting foreign bond holders. They are doing this with the banks. And as a result, any investor in a 'special' bond will ask for extra return in exchange for surrendering the protection granted to institutional foreign investors.

But read carefully above - there is an idea that such a bond can be marketed to retail investors outside Ireland via our diplomatic missions. Have they heard of MiFID or its equivalent regulations around the world? Imagine:

Our diplomatic mission in, say NYC, with a sign: 'Paddy Bonds: Buy Em Here'. A bureaucrat/ diplomat at the desk. A gentleman walks in and says: "Can you tell me about this fine bond offer?" Our man starts blabbing about Budget support for innovation and the fantastic opportunity to get X% on your investment, should you buy this Y-year bond. Another man walks in. Shows a little card, saying "SEC" at the top and asking to see our mission representative's authorization to sell retail investment products. Zoom forward ten second. The bureaucrat is led in handcuffs, Fox News outside with a camera crew and SIPTU/CPSU rep running after them shouting "Social partners will not stand for such treatment of ordinary workers!". NYTimes headline next day: "Erin Bonds Bust". Within a week - the same happens in all civilized nations protecting their citizens from unauthorized dealers in financial products.

Anyone in Farmleigh scratched their head over this possibility? Or did they all think we can get our missions staff to re-train (in our knowledge economy) to become authorized advisers all around the world? Nope - swept in a collective enthusiasm for 'radical, man, thinking' they just popped out this pearl of wisdom.


Forget all the nearly macabre pedaling of the tourism offers in the report - the ones that occupy several pages. Take a look at the beefy parts:

Section 32: "A new €90 million National Energy Retrofit Programme, ...was announced in Budget 2010. The programme will draw together existing retrofit programmes into a more coherent, overarching framework, leveraging the relationship between energy companies and their customers to promote energy efficiency improvement measures and energy services to end-users. This new programme has the potential to be the most innovative, ambitious, energy-related initiative ever introduced in Ireland. The 2010 activity alone, disbursing €130 million, will support energy efficiency improvements in up to 60,000 homes in 2010, support 6,000 jobs directly and will create energy efficiency savings worth a total of €570 million over their lifetime."

Ok, figures check: how can a €90 million programme disburse €130 million? Do money now grow on the Gov offices lawns? And notice the reference to 'energy companies' and their customers. Of course, most of this funding is therefore destined to settle into ESB, Bord Gais, and Bord na Mona coffers. To promote energy efficiency of the least efficient generators who happen to - courtesy of the state protection - be the dominant market players. But wait, 130 million for 60K homes runs to an average of €2,167 per home. Now apply arithmetic: at least 20-30% of every Government programme is consumed by admin and own costs. Then there's VAT on services and supplies. In real terms, we will be lucky if the €1,198 per house actually gets disbursed. It is better than nothing, but it is hardly qualifies as having "the potential to be the most innovative, ambitious, energy-related initiative ever introduced in Ireland".

The idea is good, don't take me wrong. It is just being devised to suit the wrong crowd - the crowd that got us where we are in terms of inefficient, severely polluting and excessively expensive energy market.

Incidentally - has this anything at all to do with Farmleigh? Nope - it was announced two years before Farmleigh took place and was budgeted for the first time in 2008.


The entire section on economic development - from mid page 8 through mid page 10, accounting for 1/5 of the substantive sections of the report has absolutely nothing to do with Farmleigh. In the end, roughly 1/3 of the report relates to ideas discussed in Farmleigh, with the rest being

• either tripe as the talk about the St Patrick's Day junkets for ministers (as if these never happened before Irish Diaspora gathered in Dublin last September), or
• something that has been announced/planned for before the Farmleigh, e.g. Dermot Desmond's 'Culture Ireland' Uni (don't get me started here).
  

What Farmleigh report does well, then? It shows a deep degree of incompetence and insecurity amongst the political and bureaucratic masters of Ireland Inc. It's comprehensive lack of new ideas, lack of departure from the status quo are frustrating, especially since we know - many of those who were at Farmleigh last September really do have good ideas.

It is simply that DofFA and this Government had no desire to hear them speak their minds. Which brings me to the revelation that was not made before (to my knowledge) about Farmleigh. In months of preparation for Farmleigh, DofFA took over the lists of invitees, prepared by the idea originators and mercilessly cut out all potential invitees they did not approve of. From that list gone were a number of public figures very active in policy debate in this country and internationally. They then added a number of those, deemed by the bureaucrats as representative of the Social Partnership. How do I know this? The original owners of the Farmleigh idea actually told me this a week before Farmleigh took place!

Sounds familiar? Yes - Farmleigh, despite sporting some very good corporate leaders, was just another state-run, state-owned junket, designed to appease our ruling elite. The 12 page report on it that took DofFA 4.5 months to compile reflects exactly this reality.

Economics 12/03/2010: Anglo's latest fun in the sun

In latest development: as Mr Alan Dukes – retired politician extraordinaire – takes over as the Chairman and Executive Chairman of the Anglo. Presumably he will no longer be acting in the interest of the taxpayers – which would, of course, be a conflict of interest for a Chairman and Executive Chairman.

There was a nice question put Mr Dukes on Newstalk – about the extraordinary €10 billion worth of ‘Master Loan Repurchase Agreements’ carried on the banks books (per Anglo’s latest annual report). Mr Dukes didn’t answer that question. But here is what we know:

MLRepos are in effect Central Bank of Ireland repurchase agreements that are so toxic, the ECB refuses to accept them as a collateral for its own discounted lending. So our Central Banks stepped in to hover these off the Anglo’s balance sheet.

Which begs several questions – and I do hope Mr Dukes actually answers these:

1. What exactly are these MLRepos and why are they held by the CB and not ECB?
2. Does Anglo continues to engage in such derivative operations vis-à-vis Irish CB?
3. Is this equivalent to the CB ripping out the decks to keep Anglo afloat – after all, in all banking finance theory, special purpose Repos held by the lowest rank lender of last resort can only be viewed as the last chance corral for a financial lender?

In a Newstalk interview, Mr Dukes did not deny the existence of the MLRepos, but said that these were not a part of the normal funding for the bank. I guess we knew this much already. Anglo, you see, is hoping to move away from this sort of shenanigans in some time in the future, when the normal property markets return, so the bank can too start lending in normal ways.

Really? How many tens of billions of taxpayers funds later would that be, Mr Dukes?

I wish Mr Dukes well in his role. And I am sad to see Donal O'Connor leaving the post - he has great experience and did his best to keep the sinking Titanic afloat.

Economics 12/03/2010: Industrial production

If you believe in fairies and elves and the story of the MNCs carrying out Ireland out of the slump driven by collapse of domestic economy, then you are in a recovery, friend.

On an annual basis production for Manufacturing Industries for January 2010 was 2.3% higher than in January 2009 (chart) per CSO’s latest data.The drivers of this change were:

• Computer, electronic and optical products (-37.2% oops)
• Basic pharmaceutical products and preparations (+11.8% - more like it).
  

In other words, really, folks – fewer PCs many more Viagras. Time to pop that vintage champagne out.

Hold on – there’s seasonality here, clearly, plus volatility. So the seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production for Manufacturing Industries for the 3 month period November 2009 to January 2010 was 2.7% lower than in the preceding three month period.

What happened there?

The “Modern” Sector, comprising a number of high-technology and chemical Sectors – all are MNCs led – showed an annual increase in production for January 2010 of 4.8%.

A decrease of 3.6% was recorded in the “Traditional” Sector (the one our folks at L28 wanted to stimulate via expensive borrowing and semi-state companies – good luck extracting here any sort of meaningful returns on ‘investment’).

More significantly, the seasonally adjusted industrial turnover index for Manufacturing Industries fell 1.5% in the three month period November 2009 to January 2010 compared with the preceding three month period. On an annual basis turnover was 8.8% lower when compared with January 2009. This makes me worry – turnover is down output is up and there is no deflation globally. What’s happening? Have falling value of the Euro been impacting the revenue we collect on transfer-pricing from the US? Likely – inputs prices are appreciating with the dollar, output prices are falling with the euro. In the end, less dosh for us.

PS: what do you think these figures are doing to the hopes of the high value-added private sector jobs creation - the one that promises us to deliver 105K new jobs via IDA and another 150K new jobs via FAS/DETE etc 'Innovation frameworks'?

Let me tell you a quick tale: on the day of Taoiseach's launch of the Innovation taskforce report, TCD academics received a 'No' answer to their joint (with Innovation Centre) application for a post of a lecturer in entrepreneurship and innovation. Knowledge economy, it seems, per some decision-makers somewhere, does not need research and teaching in either entrepreneurial aspects of innovation or business aspects of the same. So much for 'commercializable R&D'... Oh, yes, the post was planned to be self-financing via expanded teaching programmes, as far as I am aware.

Economics 11/03/2010: Replying to Prof Krugman

Updated: 14/03/2010

I have a choice today - to either deal with the notoriously influential article by Paul Krugman, or respond to a large number of responses to my commentary on the Letter of 28.

I will do both in proportional terms, relative to their substantive weight.

On L28 debate:

I received a number of supportive comments, including from the people who are self-identifying with the Left in their traditional views. Many thanks to all who commented. Please, continue to read the blog and comment on its posts.

I received a number of negative comments:

• A large number of simple 'I do not agree...' ones. Thank you for you comments. Hope you continue reading this blog and commenting on other posts in better force;
• A very small number (3) public comments in other venues that were constructive, engaging, one even funny (Mrs G posted one on her Facebook). I linked one of them (the best one, to my judgment) on the original post. Thank you for these. I strongly disagree with their main points, but I am sure we will continue debating these and I am looking forward to this;
• a large number of anonymous, outright rude and bizarre comments.
  

Now to Professor Krugman.

You are all familiar with his article in New York Times (link here). What's wrong with Prof Krugman's exposition?

"Ireland had none of the American right’s favorite villains: there was no Community Reinvestment Act, no Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac."

Sloppy job. Ireland had one Social Partnership and one 'last standing Socialist' Government of Bertie Ahearn (with Bertie's famous exclamation on the point as "I'm one of the last socialists left in Irish politics," (December, 2004)). This dynamic duo (see Mr Ahern's speech on the role of Social Partnership here, especially the sections on Community and Voluntary Sector incorporation into this structure - a clear sign of Social Partnership becoming over-weight on 'Social' agenda) presided over the gravy train of Exchequer (and local authorities, semi-states, Quangoes and Social Partners) feeding off the property boom. If this was not equivalent to the Federal and Local Authorities in the US fueling property boom through their policies, I am not sure what is.

Note: the World Bank confirms the 'social' nature of the Partnership here.

We had a 20% social housing 'dividend' which inflated prices and restricted supply. Local authorities had an option of either exercising the 20% allocation in full, or substituting in financial contributions from developers. They took charge of this subsidy and run with it. We had zoning and planning laws and practices (perpetuated and perpetrated by the State in its various guises) that:

• pushed development into marginal areas,
  
• reduced supply of suitable land,
  
• curtailed re-development of poorly utilized properties,
  
• supported rural small-scale build up and
  
• lavished tax breaks aligned with the National Spatial Strategies and National Development Plans on shoe-box apartments in depressed and depressing areas where few sustainable buyers would opt to live.
  

We had the Government that was taking over 40% of the value of each new unit built in this country in taxes and levies, thus directly benefiting from this artificial scarcity-driven boom.

We topped the cake with a cherry of one Grand Socialist Scheme that envisioned moving people around the country physically - the Decentralization. It required 'volunatry' relocations, but in the end boiled down to giving public sector workers a fine choice - keep your current job or get re-asigned to something else. No matter what, alongside with the State purchasing vast amounts of 'Decentralization'-bound real estate (that now sits unoccupied) the promise of tens of thousands of public sector employees moving to new locations contributed to expectations of price appreciation in remote areas.

We had some other - Stalinesque in the planning terms (not execution, fortunately) schemes - remember the promises of investment and jobs flowing to BMW, the West, the North West? The Western Rail Corridor? Hardly 'market forces' at their best, these boosted expectations of future returns on property. Taking the case of Luas driving appreciation of land in Dublin and applying this to Western Rail Corridor implies that land and property values in the relatively de-populated parts of the country along the northern arm of the route have increased by 15-20% instantaneously upon the scheme announcement.

Just because we did not have the State pushing jumbo mortgages underwritten by state-owned mortgage lenders onto low income households, does not mean that the hands of the Government and its Partners are not imprinted on the facade of our own property bubble.

Instead of all the American Acts, we had the Social Partners telling the Government "we need more construction for our constituents". The Government did as it was told and collected tax revenue in sacks. It run rings around the handsomely paid and complacent regulators and supervisory authorities, who sat on their hands as the bubble was inflating. Most were appointed into their positions as the 'retirement perk' from their life-long complacency filled civil services jobs. Others - because they were 'friends' of the regime (recall Mr Ahearn famous admission on RTE). The Social Partners weren't cheering them on, they were shouting 'We need more...'. Inchdoney Accord resulted. And appointments of their friends to the positions of power.

The new NDP - with it 'social investment' taking up a third of the funds allocated for the entire 'capital' programme followed. Social housing lists swell in response, as did the coffers of local authorities, who spent the cash on grandiose Palaces of Peoples - their own headquarters. And Gateways to Excellence - shining campuses for FAS and numerous ITs - that remain empty or half-empty. The merry-go-round was spinning.

So we pushed jumbo mortgages from our non-State banks onto ordinary folks to pay for the above largess of the 'Social' State and its 'Social Partners'. Hardly the forces of 'market capitalism' these were.

We distorted returns on every other form of capital:

• Productive physical capital carried a 25% direct rate of tax or 12.5% corporate rate, or both - depending on whether you were a small or a medium business;
• Human capital was taxed at 42%, then 41%, now up to 56% margins;
• Currently vacant apartments sit taxed at 0%.
  

The 'Left' did occasionally protest against the latter - never against the former, and often against the 'low' physical capital taxes. But these protests were not about the bubble - they were about the Irish Left's demands for even more state transfers. By 2005-2007 they were calling on the Government to start pushing property development into becoming a vehicle for financing not only domestic welfarist policies, but even the aid to foreign countries.

The squeeze on the property market was complete - the supply was artificially restricted, demand was artificially inflated and the Government was actively 'talking the market up'. The banks were encouraged to lend and the regulators were directly selected to be complacent, inactive and on some occasions - outright unsuited to run the complex world of finance. Our former Governor of the Central Bank had no idea he could do anything to alter reserve requirement ratios on Irish banks - he was a career bureaucrat, not a central banker.


Prof Krugman says that "What really mattered was free-market fundamentalism." And refers to Ronald Reagan. Ireland never had a single Ronald Reagan moment in its history. Where Reagan believed in the right of people to engage in free enterprise, Irish Government only believed in the right of the State to tax the free enterprise. Post 2002 EU ruling, most of the taxing took place through indirect means, while the Government maintained a low tax rhetoric. Before 2003, during the height of the 'free-market fundamentalism' we had two-tiered tax system, with a 10% or less tax for big MNCs and a punitive 32% for mere mortals. MNCs were encouraged into this country by the wavers and indirect subsidies that reduced their indirect taxes which were levied through the system of state-controlled bodies and companies. This can fool outsiders like Prof Krugman and some insiders (e.g. the Letter 28 authors) to believe that Ireland was some sort of the Friedmanite Happy Land of free markets, but it does not change the reality.

Let me postulate the following theorem to Prof Krugman:

"Independent of how many fingerprints a forensic analyst can collect at any economic crime scene, invariably, there will be one set of fingerprints always present - that of the State"

And a corollary:
"These fingerprints will invariably lead an investigator to something with a word 'Social' or its derivative on it as a core entity partaking in the event".

'Social' as in 'Socialist'. Doesn't really chime with 'free-market fundamentalism'...

Per arguments above, QED.


Note: Hat tip to Anonymous on typos.

Economics 11/03/2010: Debt figures confusion reigns at RTE?

Per RTE report yesterday (emphasis is mine, see original here)

“New figures from the Central Bank show that at the end of January Irish residents - mostly companies and institutions - had an outstanding debt of €1.1 trillion. Figures for issued debt securities indicate that €790 billion worth of this debt is denominated in euro, while the remaining €270 billion is denominated in foreign currencies."

This, indeed, is misleading enough for the non-economist. While RTE choice of words ‘outstanding debt’ might imply ‘total debt’, in reality, of course, the Central Bank note (available here) is dealing only with securitized debt: bonds, notes and debt securities issued, plus equity issued. But it does not include non-securitized loans, mortgages, corporate loans, over drafts, credit cards, corporate invoice-discounting, and even massive volumes of investment fund shares/units.

This, if course, explains how the figures issued today differ from our real total debt measure: the Gross External Debt of all resident sectors, published quarterly (with one quarter delay) by CSO. Q4 2009 is still due for release later this month, but per latest CSO data, in Q3 2009, the gross external debt of all resident sectors in Ireland stood at €1,637bn or €51bn down on the Q2 2009 level – some €537 billion more than what RTE’s note mistakenly labelled to be Ireland’s outstanding debt.

The liabilities of Ireland-based monetary financial institutions (aka our financial system inclusive of IFSC) were virtually unchanged quarter on quarter at €691bn with their share of total debt rising from 41% in Q2 2009 to 42% in Q3.

Similar dynamic took place in Other Sectors – comprising insurance companies and other financial enterprises, plus non-financial companies – where debt as of Q3 2009 stood at €618 billion or 38% of the total, up from 37% in Q2 2009.

Virtually all of the quarterly decrease in our indebtedness came from the Central Bank funds changes. This is why excluding the Central Bank and Government liabilities, total economy debt rose from €1.513 trillion in Q2 2009 to €1.508 trillion in Q3 2009.

Since Q3 2007, the overall debt levels in Other Sectors rose by a cumulative of 15.6%, in Direct Investment sector by 9.3%, and our total debt rose by 8.33%. At the same time, our wealth - or assets side - have collapsed by over 60%.

Only banks have so far managed to de-leverage in Ireland (down 9.8% on Q3 2007) thanks to the taxpayers’s cash. Which brings us to a sad but inevitable conclusion – while banks use our money to write down their bad debts, is it any surprise that the real debt burden in the Irish economy is not declining?

Now, paired with Central Bank information note, if we subtract from the total debt figure in Q3 2009 the approximate IFSC-related debt of €850-900 billion (reflecting both securitized and non-securitized debt held, keeping in mind that most of the IFSC debt is securitized), this leaves Irish resident companies, households, banks, financial services providers and the public sector in the hole for roughly €730-790 billion.

Take this into a perspective: this number is equivalent to

• €165,273-176,485 debt per every man, woman and child in this country – resident and citizen (per latest CSO population data, here)
• Assuming paydown in the amount of our annual public deficit projected for 2010, this debt mountain will take us 41-44 years to pay down without any interest accruing on it (just think of 44 years of austerity and you get the picture)
• At the current interest rate charged on Government borrowing, the annual interest bill relating to our economy’s debt mountain adds up to €36.85-39.35 billion or more than 50% of the total annual Exchequer expenditure (just a reminder, we are being offered a plan to borrow more by the Letter of 28 - here - because, apparently, we have not borrowed yet enough)
  
• Given the average family size in Ireland (2.82 persons per household) and the latest average house price (€242,000 per Q4 2009 daft.ie report), this level of indebtedness is equivalent to 2 houses per every family in the Republic

Shall I go on? Sadly, reading RTE report one might conclude that things are ok: most of our outstanding debt is owed by the IFSC, so no need to worry, folks. Alas, that would be as wrong as calling today’s data release from the Central Bank a true reflection of our debt mountain.

Economics 08/03/2010: 28 Alices in Wonderland of Tasc economics

Update: one of the signatories to the Letter of 28 is responding to my comment here.



After a very lengthy period of navel gazing, Irish left has produced its own platform for economic policy (here). And what a marvel it is. Right out of Alice in Wonderland.

The letter of 28 social scientists published in the Irish Times is worth a read, if only to see what passes for ‘independent thinking’ in our country. Here are few pearls.

“Consumer spending has collapsed while at the same time unemployment and emigration have soared. Crucially, investment has plummeted off the chart. Not only have Government policies failed to stem this haemorrhage, they have actively contributed to this collapse.”

No one can deny these facts. But there are serious omissions here. Investment collapse in Ireland is driven foremost by the collapse in construction sector – the sector that accounted for over 70% of total private investment in this country until 2007. So no - the Government has not contributed to this.

Investment the authors have in mind is the NDP-related allocations, which are less than 50% about real capital and more than 50% about ‘soft’ investments – in equality, poverty reductions, etc (all noble objectives, but hardly affordable in current circumstances).

Note, however, that the 28 ‘leading’ policy lights do not mention draconian tax increases here as the contributing factors. Oh, no – this article is about how good more public spending would be to our country.

“The most damaging are cuts in transfers to low-income groups which, along with general tax increases on low and average pay in 2009, have reduced spending power in the economy at a time when it was most needed.”

Really? Social welfare payments were cut by 4% in Budget 2010. They were raised by 3.3% in Budget 2009, which means that in nominal terms, post-Budget 2010 our welfare recipients are only 0.83% worse off than they were in 2008. And then there was deflation – in 2009 CPI fell 4.5% and HICP declined 1.7%. Say we use HICP, since majority of those on social welfare don’t have a mortgage – their housing costs are usually covered by the taxpayers. This means that in real terms post-Budget 2010 Ireland’s welfare recipients are still 0.883% better off than they were in December 2008. Is that so deflationary, folks?

“Equally damaging have been the cuts in public investment at a time when private investment has plummeted. This has laid the foundations for a low-growth, high-debt future where unemployment will remain high and inequality endemic.”

One can relate to this statement. The problem is that while some of the cuts were to productive investment, the real error of the Government policy has been the lack of systematic approach to assessing the value-for-money of various projects and freezing or canceling outright the ones that do not yield sufficient returns. For example, parts of road building programmes relied on the outdated and often utterly unrealistic expectations of development in remote locations. Binning these ‘investments’ is ok – they are the luxury we cannot afford. Ditto for Metro North – which in its current incarnation is a White Elephant.

And how on earth cuts in public investment are going to make income inequality endemic? During the Celtic Tiger era, income inequality rose (judging by the works of some of the 28 experts), yet public investment also rose. So public investment boosts did not work then for income inequality. Any reason they should do so now?

Irony has it, the 28 ‘wise ones’ have failed to grasp the idea that far from stimulating public investment, we should be stimulating productive private investment – that is what creates sustainable jobs and growth. And to do that we need lower taxes, and less borrowing by the Exchequer, so our banks have no Government bonds to roll over at the ECB lending window.


“Budgetary policies have been short-termist and reactive. Instead of cutting real waste in the public sector by increasing productivity and efficiency, the Government has cut public services and the living standards of those who can least afford it, further reducing domestic demand and, thus, employment.”

I agree with this. The Government has wasted a golden opportunity to have real reforms in the public sector and public spending, as well as taxation. So why would the 28 'wise ones' give even more dosh to such a wasteful Exchequer?


The authors do not understand that increasing consumption – by borrowing at 5-6% per annum to give the money to our welfare system and to pay public sector’s obese wages is taking money out of investment. Instead, they seem to think that both: welfare payments increases and public sector wages can be sustained while increasing state spending on capital projects.

So do the simple additions. To maintain NDP investment at previously planned levels, on top of the current budget deficit we will need some odd €6-7 billion more. To return welfare payments to their 2009 levels, and to reverse pay cuts in the public sector and reductions in employment there, we will need additional €3.4 billion. These are all net of receipts. So the Exchequer will be borrowing some €29 billion this year - 18% of our GDP. What would the Greeks say with their current 12.7% GDP deficit and heading for 10.7%?

What would the bond markets say? Ah, here we come to the interesting part that the folks in Tasc did not care to consider. At 18% defict, Ireland Inc's bonds would rise to a yield of ca 7.5%. Ok, let us split the difference and say, 7%. Then scroll below for some calculations...


“These policies are weakening the economy’s ability to cope with growing debt levels.”

Really? Most of the non-banking debt – almost 100% of it – in this country is held by private sector firms and ordinary workers. How is paying more in welfare payments going to help deflate this debt? How is public spending on capital projects going to do the job? Oh, by the way, read further to find what the 28 think about savings (which, remember, in the long run = investment).


“We urgently need measures to tackle five key areas which require fundamental reforms: our substantial physical infrastructure deficits; our poor social infrastructure – early childhood education, ...primary and community healthcare..., housing lists..., ...Irish public transport ...; our high levels of relative poverty and income inequality; our under-performing indigenous business sector – which needs appropriate support to contribute to our export base, RD and innovation capacity; and our unsustainable reliance on carbon-heavy resources and activities.”

Well, if that is not a shopping list we’ve seen before in the Irish Times… We do need more schools, and we do need some other capital. But simply to say ‘more!’ is not enough. One must face the reality of constraints on funding. The 28 do not seem to be bothered by the fact that Irish middle classes simply cannot bear any more of their droning about the need for more ‘public sector’ stuff and shorter housing lists. We’ve got mortgages to pay, folks, never mind your housing lists. And their environmental taxes are simply a ploy to tax income even more.

The irony is - word 'reforms' is equated in the 28 minds with 'more spending'. Again, we've heard this before from some of the signatories.

The 28 also seem to not understand where our exporting capacity comes from. Far from being the domain of domestic enterprises, it is reliant on MNCs, who would flee Ireland were the 28’s ideas implemented.


“It may seem astonishing that we face such economic and social deficits after 15 years of boom but these are the consequences of pursuing a failed low-tax, low-spend model which sought short-term gains from the speculative activity of a small but powerful golden circle.”

Really? I didn’t notice a low tax, low spend economy. The Government accounted, pre-crisis for EU-average level of spending in terms of GNP, and removing the MNCs out of Ireland’s income accounting, leaves the Irish Government in control of over 60% of the entire economy. Low tax? Our taxes are now second highest in the EU at the upper margin level. All of this before you factor in some of the highest indirect taxes and charges.

But wait, to be really wise, the 28 must have done some thinking – low taxes compared to what? To the services and benefits we receive? One has to be ignorant to suggest that given the poor quality of healthcare, the abysmal quality of our transport, and pretty much every other service supplied by the State, our taxes are low. Compared to the French and the Swedes, and the Germans, we are paying through the nose for the little service we get.


“We can employ the strength of our combined public enterprises – their off-balance sheet borrowing and investment capacity to invest in our infrastructure and create new indigenous enterprises, both public and private.”

Please, help me – does anyone actually believe that our semi-state companies are that good in creating 'new indigenous enterprises’? More CIE? ESB? Bord na Mona? Aer Lingus?


“We can further employ new funding vehicles – enterprise development bonds (eg green bonds), municipal bonds and the new National Solidarity Bonds – which can leverage our current high savings ratio and international investment.”

Again, there is apparently not a single person authoring this letter who understands basic finance. At what rate would you borrow through these bonds? Current yield is 5%. Greece at 6.3%. To make these bonds attractive to anyone, you’d have to price them around 7%. Are the 28 suggesting that returns to these bonds will be in the region of 10% (to cover issuance costs and administrative margins)?

Suppose we borrow at 7% for 10 years, invest in new private (not public) enterprises. The rate of survival for start ups in Ireland is, historically, around 25-30% over 5 years. In 10 years – it will be around 15%. To get 10% return on these bonds, the state will need to invest in new ventures that will survive through 10 years slog while yielding over 22% annually! Enterprise Ireland never had this spectacular of a record, even during the boom time. Even Michael O’Leary is not that good.


But wait, the above passage is about taking our savings and spending these on public investment and state enterprises. How is that going to help our families with their debt? And how is that going to provide financing for companies and private sector in general? What effect will this expropriation of personal savings (for it will require compulsory expropriation, given that the bonds will have to be self-financing, aka priced at yields of below 2-2.5% pa - the expected rate of real growth in the economy over the next 10 years) have on consumption? The minute we start even talking about destabilizing peoples savings, all cash will flee the country and consumers will tighten even more their expenditure. Sadly, none of the 28 'leading lights' seemed to have heard of the precautionary savings motive - the one that drives our current savings ratios.


And so they conclude – having established not a single fact or provided not a single relevant statistic or estimate that: “The resources and labour to finance this modernisation drive are there. We just need the political vision and will to make it happen.”


NB: The 28 call for reforming tax system – I agree, this is needed. They are also calling for abolition of tax breaks. I agree – they unnecessarily complicate tax code and should be yielded in exchange for simple low flat tax rate on all income. But we do not need an additional tax band for higher income – we need to bring people on lower incomes into tax net to make them real stakeholders in this society. Again, this can be done by simply dropping the income tax rate and with it – the deductions.