Eurocoin is out for August and it is showing a positive reading for the first time in 15 months:
So it is time to upgrade a notch my forecasts.
Interesting detail - Eurocoin turn around is under-pinned by rising (though still negative) trend in industrial production, business surveys (both PMI and EU Commission) still staying on the negative side, with Commission survey being particularly gloomy. Consumer surveys are still in dire straits, with exception of Italy (happy summer, folks) and Spain, though Spain is now looking poised for a double-dip consumer recession. Stock prices still are posting poor performance except for Spain and to a lesser extent Germany. Exports are at zero growth rates across the Eurozone, but are modestly positive in Germany, France and Spain.
Net result - a mixed bag of continued weaknesses (abating) and some strengths (very modest).