Sunday, July 4, 2010

Economics 4/7/10: Global PMIs signal some pressures ahead

Based on WSJ blogs info, I pooled together a comparative table for the last three months OECD Purchasing Managers Indices. An interesting dynamics for Ireland, compared to peers and some other countries (24 in total):
Note: relevant competitors are in bold.

An interesting observation on PMI levels:
  • In April Ireland ranked 18th in terms of its PMI reading (remember, PMI above 50 signals expansion);
  • In May, this rank improved to 15th;
  • But in June we slipped to 20th place of 24 countries.
In terms of changes mom in PMI readings, we fared much better, registering:
  • 3rd highest gain in mom between April and May;
  • falling to 19th rate of change between May and June;
  • between April and June we recorded 12th ranked result in terms of changes in PMI
Overall, within the sample of 24 countries, it is clear that April to June changes showed 17 countries of 24 posting declines in PMIs, with only Greece, Hungary and South Africa continuing to post contractions in activity (below 50).

Most notable is stellar performance of Switzerland.

Average PMI has declined from 56.1 in April to 53.9 in June, while standard deviation has fallen slightly from 4.4 in April to 4.3 in June. This means Irish PMI drop was broadly in line with the average.
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