4/8/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs

BRIC Manufacturing PMIs are out for July and the numbers are bizarre:

Brazil is going parabolic? The country is absolutely devastated by COVID19, although the Government is hell-bent on Malthusian 'let them mind their own health or die' tactic. And its Manufacturing PMI came in at a world-leading 58.2 in July, up on weak growth-signalling 51.6 in June. This is the highest monthly reading on record for Brazil. It is such an outlier, in terms of historical record, in terms of recent pre-COVID19 trends and in terms of international comparatives, one is wondering if the data was compiled by someone with some serious fever.

On the mid-range of surprises, China's Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8 in July compared to 51.2 in June. This marks second month of statistically positive growth-supporting PMI. China's Manufacturing PMIs are generally rather subdued, so 52.8 is the highest the index has been since January 2011. The outrun is not surprising, however, given that China managed to 'officially' contain COVID19 pandemic earlier in 2Q 2020 and moved to reopen its economy. Unlike in the case of Brazil, China's Manufacturing PMIs have been consistent (dynamically) with its Services PMIs.

On the downside surprise, Russia Manufacturing PMI fell in July to 48.4 from 49.4 in June. The index has now been nominally below 50 mark since May 2019, although June reading was not statistically different from 50.0. Still, July reading clearly shows deteriorating conditions in Russian manufacturing sectors.

On an even bigger downside surprise, India Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.0 in July down from 47.2 in June, marking fourth consecutive month of sub-50 readings. India's reading in July was the third lowest for any month since January 2009.

Overall, GDP-weighted BRIC Manufacturing PMI - computed by me using Markit countries-level data - stands at 51.1 in July, and improvement on 45.0 reading recorded over 2Q 2020.

10/1/16: Crisis Contagion from Advanced Economies into BRIC

New paper available: Gurdgiev, Constantin and Trueick, Barry, Crisis Contagion from Advanced Economies into Bric: Not as Simple as in the Old Days (January 10, 2016). 

Forthcoming as Chapter 11 in Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery, edited by Constantin Gurdgiev, Liam Leonard & Alejandra Maria Gonzalez-Perez, Emerald, ASEJ, vol 18; ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1. Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2713335.

Abstract:      

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced economies (AEs) to the emerging markets (EMs). This chapter examines the volatility spillovers from the AEs’ equity markets (Japan, the U.S and Europe) to four key EMs, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The period under study, from 2000 through mid-2014, reflects a time of varying regimes in markets volatility, including the periods of dot.com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Great Recession and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. To estimate volatility cross-linkages between the advanced economies and BRIC, we use multivariate GARCH BEKK model across a number of specifications. We find that, the developed economies weighted return volatility did have a significant impact on volatility across all four of the BRIC economies returns. However, contrary to the consensus view, there was no evidence of volatility spillover from the individual AEs onto BRIC economies with the exception of a spillover from Europe to Brazil. The implied forward-looking expectations for markets volatility had a strong and significant spillover effect onto Brazil, Russia and China, and a weaker effect on India. The evidence on volatility spillovers from the advanced economies markets to emerging markets puts into question the traditional view of financial and economic systems sustainability in the presence of higher orders of integration of the global monetary and financial systems. Overall, data suggests that we are witnessing less than perfect integration between BRIC economies and advanced economies markets to-date.