13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

 I have not updated the controversial comparatives between the Nordics (ex-Sweden) and Sweden in terms of COVID19 pandemic figures for some time now. For those of you who are out of the loop in this controversy, 

• Sweden imposed weak restrictions (basically none) on mobility and work environments in the wake of the pandemic, pursuing the strategy of 'herd immunity';
• Other Nordics imposed severe crack downs on mobility and social and work environments in response to COVID19 pandemic.

There has been a lot of controversy as to the effectiveness of the lack thereof of the Swedish strategy.

So here are the key data trends and points:

Key takeaways from the above:

• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 89,377 cases. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 35,277 cases, or 39.5% of the total number of Swedish cases. So to-date, Sweden has experienced significantly greater exposure to the virus than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 5,829 deaths. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 2,188 cases, or 37.5% of the total number of Swedish deaths. Sweden also experienced much higher death counts from the pandemic than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• Notably, per first chart above, since 26-27th of August, Nordic ex-Sweden have experienced a rather substantial re-acceleration in new cases, in line with the rest of the EU27 (see more on this here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/12920-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). Sweden is only appearing to show signs of such re-acceleration starting with the end of the first week of September.
• The above change in trends for new cases is yet to translate into change in trends in deaths: in the last 7 days, average daily new deaths for Nordics ex-Sweden, adjusting for population differences, was 0.83. The same number fo Sweden was 1.57. In the prior 14 days, the averages were reversed at 1.034 and 0.571, respectively.

Watch the new wave developing in days ahead...