19/7/20: COVID19 Update: USA vs EU27

Updating charts for the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives for COVID19 pandemic:

U.S. vs EU27 in absolute number of cases and deaths:

Key takeaway from the above chart: on 12/07/2020 the U.S. has surpassed the EU27 in the absolute number of deaths related to COVID19. The U.S. now continues to pull away from EU27 in absolute number of deaths attributed to COVID19.

EU27 vs U.S. in per capita deaths:

Key takeaways from the above chart:

• Death rates per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, 2020, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +5,817 up from -2,867 two weeks ago. This is a swing of 8,684 excess deaths in the U.S. compared to the EU27 within a span of 14 days.

Distance between EU27 and the U.S. in deaths per capita:

Key takeaways from the above chart:

• Current U.S. death rate per capita is 42 percent above that for the EU27. Two week ago, this gap was 33 percent.
• Without timing adjustment, current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 428. This compares to a much lower rate of deaths per capita in the EU27 at 302.2.

Daily New Cases and Deaths:

Key takeaways from the above charts:

• Since the start of July, U.S. averages 58,995 new cases per day and 736 deaths per day. Over the same time, EU27 averaged 4,263 new cases per day and 106 deaths per day.

Main takeaways from all charts:

• U.S. new cases are now going parabolic (charts 1 and chart 4 above). 
• This is not a 'new wave', but the disastrous trailing of the original pandemic. 
• Deaths are lagging this development, for a number of reasons, covered in the last chart above, but these lags are showing signs of exhaustion. If this exhaustion is confirmed, deaths counts in the U.S. will accelerate beyond prior peak of 3,300 daily (using 14 days average).
• As new cases continue to pile up and lags in hospitalizations are exhausted, we will see a run on the U.S.hospitals capacity. This can further accelerate deaths counts.
• While only the future can tell, the above dynamics suggests that we are nearing an end game for the U.S. fight against COVID19, the one that is increasingly likely to end in the surrender of the U.S. health system to the pandemic, rather than the other way around. 
• A Malthusian Hellhole is beckoning the U.S. of A.

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