3/5/21: Margin Debt: Things are FOMOing up...

 Debt, debt and more FOMO...

Source: topdowncharts.com and my annotations

Ratio of leveraged longs to shorts is at around 3.5, which is 2014-2019 average of around 2.2. Bad news (common signal of upcoming correction or sell-off). Basically, we are witnessing a FOMO-fueled chase of every-rising hype and risk appetite. Meanwhile, margin debt is up 70% y/y in March 2021, although from low base back in March 2020, now back to levels of growth comparable only to pre-dot.com crash in 1999-2000. Adjusting for market cap - some say this is advisable, though I can't see why moderating one boom-craze indicator with another boom-craze indicator is any better - things are more moderate. 

My read-out: we are seeing margin debt acceleration that is now outpacing the S&P500 acceleration, even with all the rosy earnings projections being factored in. This isn't 'fundamentals'. It is behavioral. And as such, it is a dry powder keg sitting right next to a campfire. 

19/5/18: Leverage risk in investment markets is now systemic

Net margin debt is a measure of leverage investors carry in their markets exposures, or, put differently, the level of debt accumulated on margin accounts. Back at the end of March 2018, the level of margin debt in the U.S. stock markets stood at just under $645.2 billion, second highest on record after January 2018 when the total margin debt hit an all-time-high of $665.7 billion, prompting FINRA to issue a warning about the unsustainable levels of debt held by investors.

Here are the levels of gross margin debt:

Source: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/23/an-orderly-unwind-of-stock-market-leverage/.

And here is the net margin debt as a ratio to the markets valuation - a more direct measure of leverage, via Goldman Sachs research note:

Which is even more telling than the absolute gross levels of margin debt in the previous chart.

Per latest FINRA statistics (http://www.finra.org/investors/margin-statistics), as of the end of April 2018, debit balances in margin accounts rose to $652.3 billion, beating March levels

And things are even worse when we add leveraged ETFs to the total margin debt:

In simple terms, we are at systemic levels of risk relating to leverage in the equity markets.

29/5/15: Margin Debt: Another Zombie Hits Town Hall...

So you've seen this evidence of how global real economic debt is now greater than it was before the crisis... and you have by now learned this on how debt levels and debt growth rates are distributed globally. And now, a new instalment in the Debt Zombies Portraits Gallery:

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/margin-debt-breaks-out-hits-new-record-50-higher-last-bubble-peak

Now, do keep in mind that just this week, ECB ostriches have declared that things are fine in the European financial system because 'leverage is low'.

Yes, Irish Financial Regulator of the Celtic Garfield Era, Pat Neary, would have made the Frankfurt stars-studded team with his knowledge...


Note: hare's China's rising contenders for the above distinction: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/05/18/2129638/does-china-already-have-the-highest-level-of-margins-vs-free-float-in-market-history/ h/t to @TofGovaerts