Showing posts with label geopolitical crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label geopolitical crisis. Show all posts

Thursday, December 6, 2018

6/12/18: When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe's problem is European


Europe is a sitting duck for major geopolitical risk, but the U.S. is getting there too:



And volatility surrounding the uncertainty measure is also out of line for Europe, both in levels and trends:

Just as the Global Financial Crisis in Europe was not caused by the U.S. financial meltdown, even if the latter was a major catalyst to the former, so is the current period of extreme policy anxiety and instability is not being driven by the emergence of the Trump Administration. Europe's problem seems to be European.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

14/6/2014: Risk Profile for Russian Economy Shows New Strains


Quick update from my Russia Deck on ECR outlook for Russian economy's risk profile:

Click on the image to enlarge

Worth noting: this performance is not as dramatic as one could have expected given the intensity of the conflict ongoing in Ukraine and the fall-out predicted by many analysts from Crimean crisis and sanctions.