10/5/20: COVID19 Charts Update

As the U.S. and many parts of Europe are moving into the 'second stage' of COVID19 measures, relaxing some of the social distancing restrictions, here are some of the top-level stats on COVID pandemic evolution.

Global view:

• May 10, 2020 data adds 87,461 new cases globally and 4,524 new deaths.
• This was the 7th highest number of new cases additions, and 36th highest day in terms of new deaths in 122 days of record.
• Worryingly, Friday posted the second highest number of new cases increases at 94,158 on record, while Thursday posted 13th highest day in terms of deaths. 

As chart below shows, there is no consistent trend in terms of reduction in global new cases or deaths:

If this situation persists, it is highly unlikely we will see much of the relaxation in international travel, as global pandemic is appearing to be shifting geographically, rather than abating in overall severity.

U.S. vs EU27 cases and deaths:

U.S. continues to post pretty poor numbers, while EU27 is showing some significant slowdown in the pandemic progression:

As chart above shows, U.S. now vastly leads the EU27 in terms of contagion numbers and rates.

• Sunday ranks 28th in data history in terms of new cases reported, and 25th in terms of deaths reported in the U.S.
• Sunday ranks 56th in new cases and 51st in terms of new deaths reported in the EU27.
• The gap in the number of deaths reported over the entire pandemic to-date between the EU27 and the U.S. has now shrunk to 28,144 cases.
• Adjusting for the 7 days differences in the onset of the pandemic, the U.S. death rate per capita now exceeds that of the EU27 (second chart below).

Note: "The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to news reports", per https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html. Current global running death rate (case fatality rate) for COVID19 is at 6.9% for confirmed cases. In the U.S., case fatality rate current runs at 6.02% and in the EU27 the rate is 11.1%.

Russia update: 

Russia continues to experience high rates of increases in new cases, with Sunday rate of 11,012 being the second highest on record, with the highest rate to-date of 11,231 recorded on May 8, 2020. The death rate recorded Sunday is at 88, ranked 7th in the history of the series.

BRICS update:

Key concerns forward:

Key concerns forward are now shifting toward 'phase two' risks. Shifting from complete shutdown of economic and social activities to restricted levels of activities risks potential re-igniting of the contagion, as underlying pools of disease remain high. Both, Europe and the U.S. are in the situation where daily numbers of new cases and deaths remain well above the levels witnessed at the point of restrictions imposition. If these level were concern back then, why do the higher levels today not warrant continued restrictions? 

Two links of the growing fears of re-emergence of contagion worth checking out:

• Germany: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/fears-rise-in-germany-over-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections
• Asia: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-world-fears-second-wave-of-infections/a-53383336

4/5/20: Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs Crater to Historic Lows

I do not commonly cover Eurozone PMIs, but April read-out is shocking. Truly, abysmally, shocking.

From Markit release:

• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 33.4 in April (Flash: 33.6, March Final: 44.5), so down 11.1 points m/m
• March was bad - at 44.5 well below the zero growth line of 50.0. April came in woefully bad. 
• Confidence sinks to record low and job losses mount
• This was "the lowest ever recorded by the series (which began in June 1997), surpassing readings seen during the depths of the global financial crisis". 

I have covered BRICS and Global Manufacturing PMIs for April here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/4520-bric-manufacturing-pmi-april.html. 

4/5/20: Updated Covid19 charts

Post-weekend updated charts on COVID19:

First off, global comparatives on incidence rates and death rates:

The above chart shows lack of convincing decline in the rate of detected new cases and deaths worldwide. In the last three days, global case numbers posted another 'local peak' reading of 93.328 cases on May 2, which marks a fifth 'local peak' in the overall time series. 'Local trough' of 65,944 cases on April 28 - much touted in the media as the evidence of the pandemic moderating - has now been followed by four consecutive days of increases through May 2, and the usual declines in cases on May 3 and 4th. May 4th counts were 78,657, which ranks 18th most severe increase in overall time history of the series.

U.S. vs EU27 comparatives:

To better capture the convergence in death rates between the EU and the U.S., here is a summary chart plotting the gap in death rates per 1 million of population between the two:

In simple terms, U.S. deaths rate per 1 million of population trailed the EU27 by 31.4 points back on April 8th. This gap has now closed to 11.6 points on April 27th. Note: we have to compare U.S. and EU27 figures referencing a 7-days gap in the timing of the major pandemic dynamics on-set in the U.S. vs EU27.

Finally, an update on data for Russia and BRICS:

The pattern established in recent weeks persists: Russia continues to post higher numbers (increasing) in the new detected cases, while Russia's death rate per confirmed case remains well below the BRIICS comparatives. Russia's death rate per 1 million population is statistically within the BRIICS range.

3/5/20: Financial Strength Across Emerging Markets

A somewhat simplified, but nonetheless telling heat map of financial strengths and vulnerabilities across emerging market/middle income economies via the Economist:

I have outlined European economies included (for some strange reason, the Baltics are not in the assessment, neither are Bulgaria, Moldova, etc). The top 9 as well as those ranked 11th, 12th and 15th are economies with no risk category at or below 'moderate'.  The bottom 15 have no risk category within a 'safety' zone.

Have fun with these...

16/4/20: The BRICS+ challenge to institutional unipolarity and U.S. hegemony 2020 Lecture

My slides from the talk I gave yesterday to the MA in Non-Proliferation and Terrorism Studies students @MIIS on the COVID-updated topic of challenges to Pax-Americana in post-Bretton Woods institutional frameworks (IMF, WB, etc). You can click on each slide to enlarge.