18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Updating pandemic data for Russia: some summary stats first

The above stats clearly show that Russian pandemic is in  full-blown second wave of infections and deaths. As the chart below illustrates, however:

• Russian second wave has been associated with exactly matching dynamics in both cases and deaths without any substantial lags;
• Both cases and deaths are yet to show any signs of stabilization and peaking (which is distinct from the EU27 experience so far);
• The two effects combined suggest that Russian pandemic numbers are likely to continue to worsen into December.

You can see more Russia summary stats and comparatives to other countries here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/181120-covid19-update-countries-with.html. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia is experiencing a second wave of the pandemic that started around September 10-12 is still gaining speed in terms of new cases and deaths counts:

This wave is both deadlier and more severe in terms of new cases than the previous one, although there appears to be less pressure on the public health system so far. Nonetheless, November data to-date shows much higher daily average new infections (subject, partially, to higher rates of testing), and higher daily deaths counts (clearly not accounted for by higher testing):

Comparatively, Russia is performing relatively ok, when set against other BRIICS and the U.S. and the EU27 experiences: 

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic with rapidly accelerating daily deaths counts:

Authorities are imposing more severe restrictions on mobility (especially for older members of the public) and are trying to replace older essential workers with younger cohorts. For example, Moscow is trying to roll out substitute teachers (drafted from senior college students) as substitutes for older teaching staff in primary schools. A number of regions (as a federal structure, Russia has highly heterogenous, locally-administered systems) are now running out of emergency health facilities (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/27/were-in-hell-russias-second-wave-of-covid-19-is-catching-the-regions-off-guard-a71851), with serious questions being asked as to the apparent lack of preparedness, given the summer pandemic moderation period. 

Overall, Russia currently ranks 33rd worst in the league of 47 countries with more than 100,000 cases, with better than average (95% confidence interval) scores in the number of cases per 1 million population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of cases. Despite the commonly cited controversy over Russian reporting methodologies for COVID19 linked deaths (incidentally, Russia does not use a unique methodology for such reporting, although Russian methods for assigning causes of deaths are different from those used in the EU27), Russian rates of deaths per cases detected and rates of deaths per 1 million of population are comparable (in rankings) to Russia's case numbers. 

Nonetheless, the second wave of the pandemic is both deadlier and larger than the first wave and it remains to be seen if Russian healthcare system can cope with this. 

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Two weeks ago I pointed out the fact that Russian COVID19 numbers are going exponential as the pandemic clearly entered a new wave dynamic. This trend is still there and death counts are rapidly accelerating as well.

If the chart isn't clear enough, here are the numbers: 

This isn't a fluke, nor a product of increased testing, though the latter factor contributes to higher detection numbers, it should be pushing down deaths (earlier interventions should be consistent with better treatment options and outcomes). 

Around two weeks ago, Russia new cases went exponential. Now, there are signs of a similar dynamic in the already rising daily death counts.

17/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 

Russian pandemic numbers are getting seriously out of control, once again, and this outrun was pretty much predictable based on early eit from serious restrictions.

Russia managed to lower, but not crush, pandemic pressures between the first wave peak of the second week of May 2020 and the start of July. By mid-August, both new cases and daily deaths counts fell to their post-peak lows. However, starting with September, the pandemic evolved into a second wave, with exponential increase in new cases through today, and deaths following the same trend path.

Here is a summary table of the second wave dynamics:

And here are Russia comparatives in comparison to some of the peers in the table of countries with more than 100,000 cases:

At current rates of new cases arrivals, Russia will still be able to cope with the pandemic from the public health system capacity perspective, but absent strict lockdowns, the new wave is likely to continue expanding. Upcoming winter weather is likely to keep the acceleration pressures on the new cases and with this, Russian hospitals capacity could be severely tested comes mid- to late-November.  

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:

• 14-days MA of deaths has risen since the lows of ca 100/day to current levels of ca 140/day.
• Stripping out some volatility induced by the timings of reports, deaths are on a rising trend signalling the onset of the second wave of the pandemic around the first week of September.
• Overall, Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19 that started around the last week of August (in terms of new cases numbers).

Russia recorded an average of 9,474 new cases per day in the last 7 days, up on 7,140 in the prior seven days period. In attributed daily deaths, current 7-days average is 156 against prior 7-days average of 128.

Here are peer comparatives:

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 

Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19, although it is still in the early stages of this development:

Russia first started to impose lockdowns around March 2, which lasted through mid-June (an earlier partial lifting of lockdowns in Moscow took place in the first week of June). The lockdowns coincided with much lower daily cases and deaths than are being registered currently, but despite this, Russia is not currently planning to impose stricter controls on social activities in the wake of the accelerating pandemic numbers. The reason for this is the expressed hope that the recently-released vaccine against the COVID19 will be widely available to the general population by November 2020. The vaccine does not have an independent peer-validated confirmation of its effectiveness so far. 

Here is a table summarizing Russia's relative positioning compared to other BRIICS, the EU27 and the U.S.:

Note: data excludes China, for two reasons: (1) China's officially-reported case numbers are less than 100,000, and (2) I have zero credibility in China's officially reported COVID19 statistics, so while questions can and should be raised about robustness of data reported in BRIICS overall, China's data suggests an altogether novel levels of data manipulation compared to its peers.

13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia and BRIICS

 Updating my long-overdue charts for Coronavirus pandemic in Russia:

One worrying trend is the uptick in smoothed data for new cases in the last two weeks and a smaller corresponding increase in new deaths, as noted in the chart above.

Looking at the controversial mortality rates:

To highlight the above, consider the following differences between some key countries/country groups:

Note: China does not enter the comparatives, since it has, officially, less than 100,000 cases to-date.

29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Russia and BRIICS

An infrequent update on Russia COVID19 stats:

Daily Cases and Deaths:

Russia is failing to arrest the new cases curve and the deaths curve, with both series running at elevated levels through July. Thee decline in new cases around the end of June was also associated with a drop in daily deaths. Since the opening up of the restrictions in advance of the July referendum vote, Russian COVID19 cases and deaths have shown disruption in the prior positive trends. Last 7-days average new cases are running at 5,741, which is statistically indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 6,197. Similarly, current 7-days average of 132 is materially indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 138.

I noted in late June that Russia is rushing into relaxation of restrictions and this is a mis-guided policy decision that seem to have nothing to do with the pandemic dynamics. It appears that my analysis was correct.

Mortality Rates: 

Russian mortality rates are rising, and are now firmly close to the average of the BRIICS economies:

Amongst all countries with more than 25,000 cases (58 countries & EU27), currently, Russia ranks

• 22nd highest by the number of COVID19 cases per capita
• 32nd highest by the number of deaths per capita of population
• 44th highest by the mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 COVID19 cases)
• Cumulatively, across all three categories of metrics, Russia scores within the 95% confidence interval for the mean score for the group of 58 countries and the EU27.

13/7/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia continues to report slowly declining numbers of new cases, while official death rates are trending up:

The above numbers confirm what I have been saying for some time now: relaxation of constraints in advance of the constitutional referendum vote was too fast, too early to achieve a meaningful control over the pandemic numbers.

One controversial statistic reported by the Russian authorities is the death rates (see more on this here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/30620-covid19-update-russia.html). Russian reported mortality rates have finally rose to the levels within the 95% confidence interval of the mean for BRIICS economies:

30/6/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia is going to the voting booths and the country is - by a mile - nowhere near being ready to relax COVID19 restrictions. This is risking tragic consequences in the near future.

Cases and deaths are still high. For deaths, this holds even if we do not correct for Russian reported death rates, influenced by hell knows what - different methodology (yes), shoddy local reporting (may be), lags in reporting (probably), Kremlin conspiracy (probably not, but who knows) and so on.

Correcting Russian data on reported deaths is hard, primarily (in my opinion, due to different methodologies in reporting - link below). At the upper tail end of the arguments for adjustment (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/06/10/moscow-sees-58-mortality-spike-in-may-as-russias-low-virus-deaths-questioned-a70532 and https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures) we have Moscow and St Petersburg cases in May (peak contagion and deaths growth month in the most severely impacted region in Russia with massive population density). So ca 60% estimate for understatement in Moscow most likely runs at around 45 percent for Russia as a whole. Which would roughly be in line with my model.

Notice, even with adjustment (which yields mortality to-date 44% higher than reported), Russia death rate from COVID19 remains relatively low (see comparatives to BRIICS below).

Key takeaway: Russia is not ready to relax COVID19 restrictions beyond modest local restrictions easing. The country is most certainly not ready for allowing in-person voting.