30/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating charts for COVID19 worldwide data, with main comments in the charts:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat (running at approximately constant rate) at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day). This suggest that although pandemic growth rate has fallen to close to zero, the pandemic continues.
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 259,500, with the current 7-days average at 255,986. This implies a mild moderation in the rate of daily cases arrivals that statistically is close to nil, as noted above.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 25 in 5 days, which is an improvement on the mid-August trends.
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 240-245,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic. This conclusion is further supported by the evidence that Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific where the pandemic's first wave started earlier in the year are now experiencing robust increases in new cases (see subsequent post on EU27 data).

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. Last 7 days average is -0.86%. This suggests that slight moderation in new death counts experience earlier in August has been declining toward zero in more recent days.
• In the mean time, daily deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,726 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,360.

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.27% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. 

Due to steadily increasing number of countries with large number of cases, I have adjusted my summary tables and analysis for countries with largest impact of the pandemic to those with 100K+ cases (prior tables covered countries with 25K+ cases):

Key conclusion: the pandemic remains unabated. The rates of growth in cases and deaths might be moderating, but daily counts of both remain high and consistent with peak levels of the pandemic. We are now 6 months into the full pandemic development and there are few signs of any material improvements on the ground. Almost 25 million people have now been officially identified as being infected and almost 840,000 people have died from the condition, per official counts.

23/8/20: America's Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims

 

Having updated non-farm employment data (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/08/23820-americas-scariest-charts.html), let's take a look at continued unemployment claims, as reported through the first week of August.

A chart to start with:

Continued unemployment claims are still falling.

• The weekly rate of declines is improving. Most current week on week decline is 636,000, an improvement on prior week/week decline of 610,000. $ weeks average weekly rate of decline is 326,750. 
• Latest continued unemployment claims are at 14,844,000 which is down from the COVID19 peak of 24,912,000 set in the week of May 9, 2020. 
• We have registered reductions in continued claims in 11 out of the 13 weeks since the peak claims.

Here is the chart comparing historical records of recovery in continued claims to the current crisis perid:

And the same on the log scale

Comparing current continued claims to pre-recession period claims:

• Current levels of claims are 8,687,000 higher than pre-recession period high, 13,195,000 above the pre-recession trough and 13,142,000 above the claims registered in the last  month before the onset of the recession.

The key takeaways from this are: 

1. What matters from now on is not so much the level of the recession peak, but the rate or the speed of the recovery toward pre-recession 'normal'. So far, the rate of recovery has been fast. If sustained, we might be able to avoid much of the damage that arises from long-term unemployment duration. 
2. The rate of benefits expirations will also matter a lot. We are looking at eligibility for unemployment dropping with weeks ahead, and the supplemental payment to unemployment insurance also falling off. As the two effect bite, the impact on the overall economy from reduced unemployment support schemes can be pronounced, triggering renewed recessionary risk. 

Stay tuned for the analysis of the first time unemployment claims figures next.

23/8/20: America's Scariest Charts: Employment

 

Good news, folks, just in time for the Republican National Convention. The latest data, through July 2020, shows some recovery in non-farm payrolls numbers that is bound to make a feature in political chest-beating coming up next week.

Behold the chart:

In basic terms:

• July non-farm payrolls stood at 139,582,000, up 1.291% on June, and up 9,279,000 on the COVID19 pandemic trough (April 2020). 
• Average monthly rate of jobs recovery has been so far 3,093,000 through July. Which is worse than 3,749,500 average rate of recovery recorded through June. In other words, we are potentially seeing a slowdown in jobs recoveries.
• At current average monthly rate of recovery, it will take us just over 4 months to regain jobs lost to COVID19 pandemic, assuming no further slowdown in the rate of recovery (a strong assumption).
• Currently, non-farm payrolls sit 12,881,000 below their pre-COVID19 peak employment levels, attained in February 2020.

Some of these are good news. Assuming the recovery dynamics remain unchallenged by:

1. Natural rate of moderation in jobs recoveries
2. Renewed pressures of COVID19 (see the latest on this here:https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/08/23820-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html), or a second wave of the pandemic
3. The ravages of political uncertainty surrounding November 3 elections (not only Presidential).

One side note: the above comparatives are current-to-past. These, of course, do not take into the account where the U.S. employment figures would have been, absent COVID19 pandemic crisis. Whilst estimating potential employment levels is a hazardous exercise, taking a simple exponential trend (decaying over time) from August 2018 through the latest reported period implies potential July employment level ex-COVID19 of 153,267,800. Which is not that much of a gap to the pre-crisis peak. 

Another side note: if we assume that the rate of decay in jobs additions that prevailed between June and July 2020 (-17% decay) continues into the future (also a strong assumption), jobs recovery to the pre-crisis peak will take us through May 2021. For the pre-pandemic trend case, the recovery will take us into March 2022.

More data analysis of the U.S. labor markets is coming up in subsequent posts, stat tuned. 

23/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating pandemic data for the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives. All comments in charts.

Key takeaways:

• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 51,004 new cases per day and 1,056 deaths per day.  Over the same time, EU27 averaged 12,452 new cases per day and 126 deaths per day.
• Since mid-July, EU27 new cases and daily deaths are now trending up once again, with current daily rates at the levels above those that triggered the first shutdowns in March.
• The EU27 daily counts of new cases are now on a sustained rise since mid-July and currently exceed the levels at which the original EU lockdowns were imposed.
• The U.S. is still experiencing its first wave of infections. The trend in the U.S. suggest that the peak infection has taken place in late July. 

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +38,432 up from +9,409 a month ago.
• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, 2020, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (310.9 currently). U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (531.9 currently).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 73 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Thus, there are 228 more deaths per 1 million of population in the U.S. to-date than in the EU27.

23/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating latest data for COVID19 pandemic - comments in charts

New cases and deaths: daily counts

Key trends in thee above:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day).
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 258,816, with the current 7-days average at 252,383.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 10 in 1 day, and in 11-25th place in 4 days. 
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 220-225,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic.
• Death rates have peaked in mid-April, but the extent of subsequent declines is largely artificially contrasted to past higher rates, due to: 

1. Delayed reporting, especially in April, primarily in Europe (nursing homes deaths);
2. Lags between new cases arrivals and deaths;
3. Shift in new cases to younger demographics; 
4. Improved detection/testing;
5. Shift in the pandemic intensity toward countries with different reporting methodologies.

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 
• However, deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,882 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,663 deaths.

Trend growth rates:

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.65% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 

Two summary tables of stats: G7+ and BRIICS:

Recent divergence in deaths counts dynamics from the new case counts dynamics can be indicative  of:

1. Improving rates of detection (earlier detection) of cases 

2. Learning from treating COVID19 patients 

3. The pandemic working through a decreasing density of older population impacted by the disease (due to increasing numbers of detections amongst younger patients)

4. Younger demographics of the new geographical concentrations of COVID19, and

5. Differences in cases and deaths recordings from the early stage of the pandemic (countries with deaths recorded on a primary cause basis, as opposed to COVID19 attribution in the presence of virus).

18/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating charts for EU27 vs U.S. comparatives:

High level comparatives: U.S. and EU27 shares of global cases, deaths and population

Dynamics of cases and deaths:

Key takeaways from the above:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, 2020, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27, albeit the second derivative is moderating.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-310 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +33,342 up from +5,817 a month ago.
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase.

• Controlling for the gap of 7 days in the first deaths reported, U.S. has a higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate.
• Even without timing adjustment, current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. (521) is in excess of the EU27 (309.0).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 69 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 52,406 new cases per day and 1,024 deaths per day.  Over the same time, EU27 averaged 11,366 new cases per day and 118 deaths per day.
• Since mid-July, EU27 new cases are now trending slightly up once again, and deaths are starting to rise as well.
• The EU27 daily counts of new cases are now on a sustained rise since mid-July and currently exceed the levels at which the EU lockdowns started.

18/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating World counts and major cases through August 18, 2020 (ECDC timing):

First, top countries by case numbers (> 25,000 total cases) (color coding legend in the second part of the table):

Next, dynamics of new cases:

Some moderation in new cases growth rate (7-day average trend is flat, with early signs of possible reversal downward after months of increases).

And dynamics of daily deaths counts:

Hopefully, the gentle drop in the trend (14 days moving average) is going to be sustained from here on.

11/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

We are becoming numb to the sheer size of the public health disaster that is unfolding in the U.S. Numb, careless and utterly devoid of any concern for those around us. Here are the latest numbers:

See the dashed orange line in the chart below? That is the count of total COVID19-attributed deaths in the U.S. 

Yes, it has been thus from July 12 on: the U.S. continues to pull away from Europe in terms of total deaths counts. Higher testing rates, or better health care system, or the American Way of Life are clearly not doing anything worth hanging on the wall as a point of pride: Americans are dying from the disease that the rest of the developed world has managed to contain (at least for now). 

The #COVIDIOTS crowd is reproducing on social media various shades of logical garbage, along the line of 'My neighbour was reported to have died from COVID19, even though he was hit by a car" as some sort of a palatably consistent argument that coronavirus pandemic is just a 'Democrats Hoax' or a conspiracy of the 'doctors and the 1-percenters'. Yet, the reality is that even if you assume (do not do this at home) that some 25% of COVID19 attributed deaths are 'fake' or 'errors', you still get U.S. death rates from COVID19 in excess of those in thee EU27. 

Facts:

• Current U.S. death rate per capita is 63 percent above that for the EU27. Two week ago, this gap was 49 percent.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +27,104 up from +12,913 a month ago.
• Even without timing adjustment, current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. (499.6) is in excess of the EU27 (307.0).
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-310 per 1 million.U.S. death rate per capita continues to rise.
• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 54,489 new cases per day and 1,036 deaths per day. Over the same time, EU27 averaged 9,842 new cases per day and 105 deaths per day.
• Note 1: European cases are rising once again (chart below) - a worrying sign that relaxing some of the restrictions might be triggering a risk of a new wave of the pandemic.
• Note 2: As the second chart below shows, there is some indication that European deaths are also rising, albeit with a less pronounced trend than new cases.

It is extremely frustrating for all of us involved with policy formation, statistical data flows, news flows and systemic analysis to watch, paralyzed by the large swaths of American public and political leadership virtual indifference, as the pandemic continues to rage across the country. The U.S. entered this pandemic 

1. At a later date than the EU27 - implying better capacity to prepare, test, diagnose, treat and triage pandemic victims;
2. With a younger (albeit hardly healthier) population than the EU27 - implying lower mortality from thee disease;
3. With vastly more financial and physical resources deployed in healthcare system - implying greater theoretical capacity to deal with the disease;
4. With demographics physically distributed in less densely populated areas - implying lower rate of contagion from the disease, all things being held equal;
5. With some of the Asian and European experiences and best practices already taking shape and becoming available to doctors, managers, public officials, elected politicians - implying theoretical faster 'learning curve' for the U.S.

None of this mattered in the end: the politics of 'exceptionalism' and the unfit-for-purpose public health provision systems too their toll. The U.S. now accounts for roughly 25% of all global cases (officially detected) and for 22% of world's deaths. The country only accounts for 4% of the global population.

4/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

Updating charts for the U.S. vs EEU27 comparatives through 04/08/2020 (CEDC timeline). All notes are in the charts

Meanwhile, U.S. newsflow: https://twitter.com/gavinsblog/status/1290630800401145856?s=20.

Takeaways from the above:

• EU27 are now experiencing renewed upward momentum in new cases which is yet to translate into similar trend in daily deaths.
• The U.S. remains global basket case across both new cases and daily deaths counts.
• The U.S. deaths rates are now on a sustained uplift, as was predicted on this blog some time ago.

Comparing aggregate numbers:

Having started on the COVID19 road somewhat later, the U.S. has now briskly surpassed all competitors. The U.S. accounts for 25.8 percent of ALL COVID19 cases globally, it also accounts for 22.4 percent of all deaths globally. This is despite the fact that the U.S. accounts for just 4.3 percent of global population. U.S. mortality rate (rate of deaths per number infected) is statistically similar to the global. That is right: the most expensive - by a factor of 40% - healthcare system in the world is not doing all too well at keeping people alive. U.S. infection rate is currently 6 times (!) higher than global.

Meanwhile, the dithering fool from the White House is degenerating into a clown on live TV.

4/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

Global deaths and case counts charts through ECDC data as of 4/07/2020:

Summary of the above:

• Some improved dynamics in death counts since July 31, 2020 indicate potential moderation in COVID19 deaths going forward.
• Notably, we are still in the first wave of COVID19 deaths, which suggests that any moderation in daily deaths counts in August-September is subject to risk of re-acceleration later on in the Fall.
• No significant signs of improvements in daily new cases counts, supporting cautionary interpretation of the current death counts moderation,

The world is clearly not out of the woods yet on the first wave of the pandemic.

Summary tables for countries with > 25,000 cases:

Note: countries with more than 500,000 cases are highlighted in red.

29/07/20: Federal Deficit in COVID19 Era

Roger, we need a new scale for the chart.

Latest data for U.S. Federal deficit through June 2020 is shocking. Here is a visual:

June deficit was a whooping $864.07 billion, the largest on record. This bring Trump 1 term cumulative deficits to a staggering $5.105 trillion, far in excess to $3.52 trillion average Obama term deficit.

Some historical comparatives:

The sheer scale of fiscal spending is frightening! No question, this is an emergency situation, but do observe that since 1980 through today, the U.S. has seen not a single decade of balanced fiscal policies. And within the next two months, the U.S. Federal deficit for 2020 alone will be in excess of the combined deficits accumulated in two decades between 1980 and 1999. 

29/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

Updating my charts for COVID19 cases and deaths for the U.S. and EU27:

New Cases:

U.S. continues to show the way on how NOT to do pandemic response. However, in recent days, there has been a re-acceleration in the new cases arrivals in the EU27 - a trailing outrun of the fairly aggressive restrictions relaxation measures across Europe, and re-opening of some holidays travel. This is something to watch in weeks to come.

Daily Deaths:

No resurgence in new deaths in the EU27 so far, but this is consistent with the lags to new cases and to be expected, given some uplift in new cases arrivals.

The U.S. is clearly experiencing resurgence in deaths, as expected, with significantly longer lags between new cases and deaths than in the earlier phase of the pandemic.

Comparatives between the EU27 and the U.S.

Total deaths in the U.S. continue to pull away from the total number of deaths in the EU27 with the current gap at over 14,000.

The gap in total number of deaths and in deaths per capita of population between the U.S. and the EU27 continues to grow.

While the pandemic continues to accelerate in the U.S., it is the slight uptick in the EU27 new cases that is more concerning, given our general fatigue with pointing out the extent of the public health disaster that the U.S. represents.

But for those inclined to watch the complete meltdown of the American public health system (and the ethical monstrosity of the U.S. public indifference to the risks faced by the others), here is a summary table for the largest advanced economies (Ireland is included for different comparatives) COVID19 stats to-date: