18/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating charts for EU27 vs U.S. comparatives:

High level comparatives: U.S. and EU27 shares of global cases, deaths and population

Dynamics of cases and deaths:

Key takeaways from the above:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, 2020, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27, albeit the second derivative is moderating.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-310 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +33,342 up from +5,817 a month ago.
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase.

• Controlling for the gap of 7 days in the first deaths reported, U.S. has a higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate.
• Even without timing adjustment, current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. (521) is in excess of the EU27 (309.0).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 69 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 52,406 new cases per day and 1,024 deaths per day.  Over the same time, EU27 averaged 11,366 new cases per day and 118 deaths per day.
• Since mid-July, EU27 new cases are now trending slightly up once again, and deaths are starting to rise as well.
• The EU27 daily counts of new cases are now on a sustained rise since mid-July and currently exceed the levels at which the EU lockdowns started.