16/4/20: Four Weeks of True Unemployment Numbers: #Covid19

The U.S. has added 5.245 million more unemployment claims in the week ending April 11, 2020, with additional 9,000 claims added to the April 4, 2020 week total. In summary,

• Week ending March 21: official unemployment figures rose 3,307,000
• Week ending March 28: new claims 6,867,000
• Week ending April 4: new claims 6,615,000
• Week ending April 11: new claims 5,245,000

Four weeks total is now 22,034,000. As noted here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/1342020-four-weeks-of-unemployment.html last four weeks of increases in unemployment in the U.S. have fully erased all cumulative jobs gained during the 2009-2019 'recovery' period.

This is by a mile not a fully accurate picture of true extent of jobs losses. As noted by the researchers in the https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/blog/key-economic-facts-about-covid-19/#unemployment-rate: many unemployed do not seek unemployment benefits, opting to drop out of the labor force instead. Why?

1. Eligibility for unemployment assistance is quite restrictive in the U.S.
2. States' unemployment support systems are both cumbersome and severely overloaded in the present environment.
3. Many unemployed fear Federal retribution against their migrant spouses (including legal migrants) and many are themselves on green cards, making them a potential target for removals.
4. Many unemployed become severely discouraged by the lack of potential jobs to continue job-seeking.

University of Chicago researchers used data from Nielsen survey to estimate the impact of early stage Covid pandemic on labor force participation rates. These numbers imply a drop in labor force participation from the officially-reported 64.2% to 57%. 

The research conducted through April 8th suggested that some 20 million Americans have lost their jobs due to COVID19. Adding to these 3 days to get us through April 11 would have pushed the total number of unemployed to around 3,140,000-3,969,000 more unemployed to the 22,034,000 total reported above. Splitting the difference, we can estimate new claims filed, pending and not filed due to reasons (1)-(4) above at closer to 25,500,000. 

My estimates are roughly in line with those prepared by Alexander Bick of ASU, who estimated (https://azbigmedia.com/business/unemployment-rate-jumps-from-4-5-to-20-2-asu-analysis-shows/) that through the second week of April:

• The employment rate decreased from 72.7% to 60.7%, implying 24 million jobs lost
• The unemployment rate increased from 4.5% to 20.2%
• Hours worked per working age adult declined 25% from the second week of March.