In 2014, Central Bank of Russia spent USD83 billion on currency interventions, against total draw down of USD124 billion in foreign reserves held. At the end of 2014, CBR’s foreign currency reserves, including gold, were USD386 billion, down from USD510 billion at the beginning of 2014. As of December figures, Russian foreign exchange reserves rank 6th largest in the world, providing a cover for more than 15 months of imports at current running rate.
In first half of January, CBR spend some USD2.2 billion on currency markets interventions, issued foreign exchange repos for the amount of USD8.3 billion, with most of this (USD5.4 billion) in 28- and 365-day maturities.
This year Jan 1-12 were public holidays. So they've spent these $2,2 in 3 days. If they continue like that, they will spent remaining $200b till the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, there is USD380billion-odd in the pot still. The spending rate is over 4 days, actually, not 3 (when I said first half, that is a rounding-off). And reserves depletion rates depend on a number of moving parts, such as debt redemptions by banks & companies (which were surprisingly much lower in 2014 than scheduled, down probably to cross-company, cross-banks etc loans) as well as debt repayments by companies & banks to CBR (repos etc). So days-duration of reserves is much harder to estimate. But, yes, the rates of depletion are scary.
ReplyDeleteRussian reserves are coming from 3 sources:
ReplyDelete- Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation - $88b
- Russian National Wealth Fund - $78b
- Central Bank reserves - the rest
Only the central bank reserves can be used up to support rouble.
Moreover the National Wealth Fund reserves are not liquid. These are the money spent or to be spend on "infrustructure projects" (at inflated prices). The one cannot instantly convert a railway or pipeline to a cash.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/18/us-russia-cenbank-reserves-idUSKBN0JW24J20141218
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m
ReplyDelete