Sunday, December 28, 2014

28/12/2014: Oil Prices: USD70bbl in 2015?.. May be so...


Forecasting oil prices is a rather tough job, especially if we are witnessing a regime change, rather than a temporary glitch in the markets. Nonetheless, here is the set of forecasts from the markets (options), forecasters (consensus) and Goldman Sachs:


Noticeable features: all, but futures markets bets are starting to converge in H2 2015. End-of-2015 forecasts are pretty close for Goldman and Bloomberg survey.

A bit more detailed reporting on forecasts here: http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-oil-prices-likely-to-rebound-in-second-half-of-2015-reuters-poll-2014-12?r=US.

All in, it does appear that USD70 bbl average price for 2015 is not out of line with market consensus, albeit it is not consistent with futures markets contracts.

No comments:

Post a Comment