Russian ruble remains in a full tie in with oil prices:
Based on my estimates, given 2015 Budget set at Rub3,500/bbl pricing, USD70/bbl oil price implies a range of Rub/USD pair at 51-52 with probability between 91 and 96 percent depending on the GDP metric one opts for. So on the lower end we can see Rub/USD as far down as 56, assuming no changes in other currencies pairs, but fundamentals-justified pair should be closer to 54-55 at the lower end of Ruble valuations and at around 52-53 for Q1 2015 average. The key to these ranges are EUR/USD and Rub/EUR pairs.
Note 1: I just returned from a rather informative trip to Moscow, so will be updating my outlook for the Russian economy accordingly in days ahead.
Note 2: Few charts explaining oil correlation with Russian GDP and GDP growth
Firstly: real and nominal GDP and nominal GDP per capita all show close links to oil prices at levels basis:
But, relationship is much weaker for changes (e.g. growth rates):
It would be interesting if you could also provide some commentary on the social and political situation regarding the effect of sanctions ,Ukraine etc.
ReplyDeleteI will try. A little tight on time these days, so as my core is economics, will probably have little time to essay-out social & political situation. But will keep it in mind and will try to give some reflections.
ReplyDelete