BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region.
Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented an improvement in the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – the net proportion of respondents with a positive outlook increased to 70% from 60% last month.
The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was particularly positive, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 57% to 75% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase.
The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase, while the consensus has shifted to expect expansion for France, Spain, Finland and Ireland over the next 2 quarters. An even mix of economists expect Italy to be expansionary or recessionary at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Norway, outside of the currency-block).
With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remain low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."
Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.
Here are two summary charts:
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