Q2 data for Planning Permissions Granted in Ireland is out today and on the surface it offers some good news reading.
Per CSO: In the second quarter of 2013, planning permissions were granted for 1,926 dwelling units, compared with 1,406 units for the same period in 2012, an increase of 37.0%.
In addition:
Some encouraging signs up there… although if you think the crisis is over, here's a handy chart from CSO:
The above, as CSO notes, puts things into perspective: we are starting from exceptionally low levels, so even a small uptick translates into large percentage changes. Still, I am happy to spot an improvement.
Now, let's take a closer look. I am dealing from here on with permissions issued, not units covered by these permissions.
So in terms of actual permissions issued: we have a bit of a soggy outcome: nothing is up, everything is down y/y… Declines have accelerated in Q2 compared to Q1 in four out of five categories; and H1 figures are very poor for all, but one category. In terms of units approved: we have a decent uptick. I would suggest we use caution and see if the activity picks up from here on.
Three charts to illustrate:
Per CSO: In the second quarter of 2013, planning permissions were granted for 1,926 dwelling units, compared with 1,406 units for the same period in 2012, an increase of 37.0%.
In addition:
- Planning Permissions were granted for 1,496 houses in the Q2 2013 an increase of 28.3% y/y.
- Planning permissions were granted for 430 apartment units, an increase of 79.2% y/y.
- The total number of planning permissions granted for all developments was 3,368. This compares with 3,672 in the second quarter of 2012, a decrease of 8.3% y/y.
- Total floor area planned was 834 thousand square metres in the second quarter of 2013. Of this, 39.9% was for new dwellings, 39.7% for other new constructions and 20.4% for extensions. The total floor area planned increased by 1.2% in comparison with the same quarter in 2012.
Some encouraging signs up there… although if you think the crisis is over, here's a handy chart from CSO:
Now, let's take a closer look. I am dealing from here on with permissions issued, not units covered by these permissions.
- Total number of planning permissions was down at 3,368 in Q2 2013, a decline of 8.28% y/y. In Q1 2013 there was a decline of 2.76% y/y, so rate of decline increased from the beginning of the year.
- Total number of planning permissions in H1 2013 stood at 6,643 - down 5.64% y/y.
- Total number of new permissions for dwellings granted in Q2 2013 was 772, which is down 18.05% y/y, which compares to 9.93% drop recorded in Q1 2013.
- Total number of planning permissions for dwellings in H1 2013 stood at 1,634 - down massive 13.95% y/y.
- Total number of new permissions for other new construction (ex-dwellings) granted in Q2 2013 was 754, which is down 8.94% y/y, which compares to a rise of 12.95% recorded in Q1 2013.
- Total number of planning permissions for other new construction (ex-dwellings) in H1 2013 stood at 1,539 - up barely noticeable 1.05% y/y. At least these series were up.
- Total number of permissions for extensions granted in Q2 2013 was 1,489, which is down 3.87% y/y, which compares to a decline of 3.21% recorded in Q1 2013.
- Total number of planning permissions for extensions in H1 2013 stood at 2,785 - down 3.57% y/y.
- Total number of permissions for alterations, conversions and renovations granted in Q2 2013 was 353, which is unchanged y/y, and compares to a decline of 11.94% recorded in Q1 2013.
- Total number of planning permissions for ACRs in H1 2013 stood at 685 - down 6.16% y/y.
So in terms of actual permissions issued: we have a bit of a soggy outcome: nothing is up, everything is down y/y… Declines have accelerated in Q2 compared to Q1 in four out of five categories; and H1 figures are very poor for all, but one category. In terms of units approved: we have a decent uptick. I would suggest we use caution and see if the activity picks up from here on.
Three charts to illustrate:
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