Germany... the miracle economy of Europe:
Let's do some growth facts. recall that G7 includes such powerhouses of negative growth as Japan and Italy, and the flagship of anemia France.
1) Germany vs G7 in real GDP growth:
From data illustrated above:
Let's do some growth facts. recall that G7 includes such powerhouses of negative growth as Japan and Italy, and the flagship of anemia France.
1) Germany vs G7 in real GDP growth:
From data illustrated above:
- In the G7 group, Germany ranked 6th in growth terms over the 1980s, rising to 5th in the 1990s and 2000s, and, based on the IMF forecasts, can be expected to rank 4th in the period 2010-2018. In simple terms - Germany ranked below average in every decade since 1980 through 2009 and exact average in 2010-2018 period.
- On a cumulated basis, starting from 100=1980, by the end of this year, judging by latests IMF forecast for 2013, Germany would end up with second slowest growth in G7, second only to Italy.
- On a cumulated basis, starting from 100=1990, by the end of this year, judging by latests IMF forecast for 2013, Germany would end up with fourth fastest growth in G7. Ditto for the basis starting from 100=2000.
2) Germany vs G7 in annual growth rates in GDP based on Purchasing-power-parity adjustment (PPP) per capita to account for exchange rates and prices differentials:
From data illustrated above:
- In the G7 group, Germany ranked 5th - or below average - in PPP-adjusted per capita growth terms over the 1980s and the 1990s, rising to 4th - group average - in the 2000s, and, based on the IMF forecasts, can be expected to rank 3rd - slightly above average - in the period 2010-2018. In simple terms - Germany ranked below or at the average in every decade since 1980 through 2009 and one place ahead of the average in 2010-2018 period.
- Note: Germany is the only G7 country with shrinking overall population, that peaked in 2003 and has been declining since, thus helping its GDP (PPP) per capita performance.
Here's the chart summarising Germany's rankings in G7 in terms of two growth criteria discussed:
Germany might have been performing well in 2006 and 2011 (when it ranked 1st in real GDP growth terms) and really well in 2007-2008 and 2010 when it ranked 2nd, but other than that, it has been a lousy example for any sort of a miracle.
Its simple to understand on one level
ReplyDeleteIn 2007/8/9 the European "added value" entrepot economy died.
Imperial markets (such as Ireland) for the cores products (cars etc) was no longer a viable business model.
The German /French strategy was to drive these former imperial markets into surplus.
Thus they became a hinterland for German waste production.
Deficit US ,UK & pegged China became the new markets for central and eastern Europes overcapacity.
But is this trade system sustainable ?
I don't think so.
The post 1980 world is dead.
Germany is merely eating the carcass.
A certain level of national redundancy must return which means the return of primary industry within real nation states.
The French are already making preparations for this outcome if you look at their recent transport policy decisions.
Germany is yet to rise from the ashes. They are still occupied by US and UK armies.
ReplyDeleteThey have just INCREASED population by those in GDR.
How soon we forget? Seems I was out by at least a month for the banking collapse.