In recent presentations on the global economy, euro area and Ireland I have stressed the fact that we (EA and Ireland) are stuck in the 'wrong hood' - low growth, ageing and socially sclerotic environments with no structural drivers for creation of new value added.
Here's a good visual courtesy of the IMF WEO April 2013 (full publication here):
First, the World of new regionalisation, with:
And zooming onto our (Ireland's) hood:
Per IMF (italics are mine): "The near-term outlook for the euro area has been revised downward, with activity now expected to contract by ¼ percent in 2013, instead of expanding by ¼ percent as projected in the October 2012 WEO (Table 2.1). This reflects declines in growth projections across all euro area countries, with notable revisions in some core members (France, Germany, Netherlands). Growth will strengthen gradually through the year, reaching 1 percent by the fourth quarter, as the pace of fiscal consolidation (at ¾ percent of GDP) is eased by almost half during 2013.
But growth will generally remain subdued as improvements in private sector borrowing conditions are hampered by financial market fragmentation and ongoing balance sheet repair. Further headwinds to growth could result from a sustained appreciation of the euro that lowers competitiveness and dampens export growth."
Table referenced above:
Do note that per above, with exception of France, all euro area economies are expected to pursue 'exports-led' or 'exports-supported recovery' in 2013-2014. And also do note that unemployment in this 'exporting haven' is not expected to improve in 2013-2014.
Here's a good visual courtesy of the IMF WEO April 2013 (full publication here):
First, the World of new regionalisation, with:
- Stagnant North-East or Fortress Europe
- Drowsy North-West or Fortress North America
- Dynamic Asia-Pacific or Bad Boys Gang
- Dynamic Latin America or Government Spending Junkies
- Emerging Africa or Catch-up Hare:
Per IMF (italics are mine): "The near-term outlook for the euro area has been revised downward, with activity now expected to contract by ¼ percent in 2013, instead of expanding by ¼ percent as projected in the October 2012 WEO (Table 2.1). This reflects declines in growth projections across all euro area countries, with notable revisions in some core members (France, Germany, Netherlands). Growth will strengthen gradually through the year, reaching 1 percent by the fourth quarter, as the pace of fiscal consolidation (at ¾ percent of GDP) is eased by almost half during 2013.
But growth will generally remain subdued as improvements in private sector borrowing conditions are hampered by financial market fragmentation and ongoing balance sheet repair. Further headwinds to growth could result from a sustained appreciation of the euro that lowers competitiveness and dampens export growth."
Table referenced above:
Do note that per above, with exception of France, all euro area economies are expected to pursue 'exports-led' or 'exports-supported recovery' in 2013-2014. And also do note that unemployment in this 'exporting haven' is not expected to improve in 2013-2014.
Germany is laying down with the rest of us.
ReplyDelete(except the UK of course)
http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20130417_PRPC-FINAL-1303.pdf
Of the large car markets in March its the worst hit at -17.1 % and -12.9 % January to March.
Already thats a decline of 100,000 vehicles from the same period last year.
Also of the medium to small markets the former strongmen of the North in Finland & Holland seem to be the worst hit.
March reg
Finland : – 58.6 %
Holland : – 31.4%
The sacrifice of Cyprus is not enough to bail these little monsters out with Cypriot car reg down – 58.9% in March with just 405 cars…………
More cars were sold in Iceland in March.
Anyhow Germany is dead.
Political fightback in Italy sacred the corporate horses.
They decided to sacrifice Cyprus but its destruction means nothing in this great scheme of capital destruction known as capitalism.
We still talk of national areas. To thrive, we can move, Russian to Dublin, Irish to Brisbane etc.
ReplyDeleteBy continuing to fudge on the issue, Constantin, you are condemning some to further capital loss. The rest of the economics profession will not even listen after that gambit, but you might?
This is a structural Depression, and has a decade to go at least. Please say so? Some can still rescue some of their capital?
Destruction of Cyprus means a lot! It was the clearest possible signal.
ReplyDelete