After all the hype and the pomp of recent weeks, today's ECB council and Mario Draghi's subsequent pressie were anti-climatic. Nay, they were outright bizarre, given the 'priming' achieved over the last week. The timeline of the whole fiasco is below - for the fun of it taken off twitter (please note: no tweets affiliations provided due to the way the data was extracted, so apologies to all).
The headline conclusion is as follows:
Sig Draghi's 'Big Bang':
Outcomes:
*DJ Draghi: Govt Council May Consider Undertaking Further Non Standard Measures #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS INVESTOR CONCERNS ON SENIORITY WILL BE ADDRESSED
*DJ Draghi: Will Design Appropriate Modalities for Such Measures Over Coming Weeks #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS ECB MAY TAKE MEASURES TO ENSURE POLICY TRANSMISSION
*DRAGHI SAYS TENSIONS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS AMONG RISKS
*Markets rally Mario Draghi on comments about eurozone. IBEX and MIB up by around 2%
*Draghi: Governing council may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. But no firm commitments
*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Up 1% As Draghi Speaks #wsjeuro
*DJ Draghi: Inflation Likely to Decline Further in 2012, be Below 2% in 2013 #wsjeuro
*So is Draghi strategy to bid down IT+ESP bonds to buy them cheaper?
*Oh, the Italian 10-year yield just tightened several bps
*Draghi talked markets by 5%. Delivered a delay. Huge blow to credibility
*IBEX and MIB rally losing steam as ECB chief Mario Draghi statement continues
*FTSE goes from up 50 to Negative on Draghi NON comments
*DJ Draghi: Sees Significant Progress on Fiscal Consolidation in Recent Yrs #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS IMPORTANT FOR BANKS TO BOOST THEIR RESILIENCE. Yes. with all those epic earnings
*RT @EKourtali: aaand : Italian, Spanish 10-year yield spreads over German bunds reverse earlier tightening (tradeweb)
*WAAAAAAR RT @djfxtrader: #Germany's Bundesbank to DJ-WSJ: No comment on #ECB Council Decision
*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Slides Into The Red on Draghi Comments; Down 0.2% #wsjeuro
*The Market Rally Has Now Completely Vanished Amid Mario Draghi's Press Conference read.bi/N0Vn3x
*FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB, IBEX now in negative territory as ECB boss Mario Draghi fails to deliver on eurozone action pledge
*Draghi: we have discussed possible reductions in interest rates, unanimous decision this wasn't the time #wsjeuro
*Press conference Mario Draghi: Introductory statement to the press conference via ECB PR bit.ly/Qzrdon
*Draghi: first thing is that govts have to go to the EFSF. As I've said several times the ECB cannot replace govts #wsjeuro
*LIVE: Draghi implies that seniority and EFSF/ESM measures have to happen before the ECB takes action. read.bi/Ncwtuj
*Draghi: ECB may undertake outright open market intervention of a size adequate to reach its objectives #wsjeuro
*"Many of the details [of seniority and EFSF use] will be worked out by the [ECB]" in the coming weeks. read.bi/NLo06l
*ITA +20bps SPA +10bps since Draghi started
*Draghi: the effort will be focused on the shorter part of the yield curve #wsjeuro
*"This effort is going to be focused on the shorter part of the yield curve...which will introduce discipline on the longer part." -Draghi
*DJ Draghi: This Effort is Very Different from Previous Bond-Buying Program #wsjeuro
*Markets not happy. CAC-40 turned negative having been up 1.2% earlier in #Draghi's press conference. #wsjeuro
*"I'm a little surprised by the amount of attention this received in recent press." -Draghi on saying no to ESM bank license. "Not up to us."
*The current design of the ESM does not allow to be recognized as a suitable counterparty. (for ECB repo) -Draghi
*Oh man the Spanish 10-year did not like that ESM remark. Nor Italy.
*Euro sinking like a stone. Down 200 pips since peak at start of press conference.
*SPANISH TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD 14 BPS LOWER AT 4.80%
*Euro /Dollar breaks 1.2200
*Meanwhile... Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 5.934%
*EURO EXTENDS DECLINE AGAINST YEN; WEAKENS 0.5% TO 95.42
*Markit iTraxx Europe already widened 5bps since start of Draghi speech - now at 159.5bps
*Draghi: You shouldn't assume we will or will not sterilize SMP purchases. The committees will have to tell us what is right.
*Draghi: Endorsement to do whatever it takes to preserve euro has been unanimous, but clear Mr Weidmann, BuBa have reservations #wsjeuro
*Spain CDS already 22bps wider at 560bps
*Spain's IBEX35 share index now down by almost 5% after ECB chief Mario Draghi failed to deliver on his eurozone action pledge.
*Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.00%
*FTSE MIB -2.44%
*FTSE MIB -3.00% -- Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.055% -- ITALY 10 - GERMANY 10 SPREAD 473bps
*IT GETS WORSE: US Futures sliding harder after Mario Draghi flop read.bi/NLpsFS
*Draghi: Even if we were ready to act now, there are not grounds to do so bit.ly/QzAPzq
*Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.129%
*Spanish stock market has plunged 600 points in last few minutes, now down 5% pic.twitter.com/JHQZDAtl
*Draghi on whether ECB willing 2 buy private sector assets - "no reason to be specific on what other options are" - eh, left it open?
*DJ Draghi: Statement on Bond Buys Wasn't a Decision, it was Guidance #wsjeuro
*Draghi stresses bond-buying language: "MAY DECIDE" if conditions are met #wsjeuro
*Italy 10-Yr Erases Gains, Yield Rises 23bps to 6.16%
*EMU epitaph: "I want to stress the ECB remains the guardian of price stability and that remains its mandate." - Draghi.
*Bond market to Draghi: If you'd like to buy bonds, we'll make them cheaper for you... bit.ly/QzLfPG
*RT @edwardnh: Draghi has lost all credibility now. The ECB is going to do nothing. Watch yields rise.
*Draghi: it is pointless to go short the Euro. Well, if you went short the euro when Draghi started speaking you are up 200 pips
*Draghi: "It's pointless to go short on the euro because the euro will stay." The first point hardly implies the second.
*Trichet: "Speculating on Greece defaulting is a certain way of losing out" July 27, 2011. And then... bit.ly/NVWP6b
*FTSE MIB -3.17%
... and some more
*Spanish 10s hit 7% bit.ly/QA24Ks
*Priceless! RT @FGoria: S&P: Portugal 'BB/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative On Exposure To Spain
The headline conclusion is as follows:
Sig Draghi's 'Big Bang':
- ECB 'may' address the seniority issue of ECB over private holders of PSI bonds - an issue that should've addressed more than 3 months ago,
- ECB 'might' buy some Spanish/Italian bonds but ECB won't tell how much or when,
- It is up to 'Governments' to do something about all of this and apply to EFSF, but
- ECB will now 'plan modalities' like the rest of the EU has been planning over the last 3 years.
Outcomes:
- Draghi has managed to bid down Italian and Spanish bonds
- Draghi manages to further undermine his & ECB's credibility
- The idiots who bought into peripherals on foot of expectation Draghi was about to start buying them based on his July 26th speech should have seen it coming: Draghi: In the speech on July 26th in London, I made no reference to a bond-buying programme
*DJ Draghi: Govt Council May Consider Undertaking Further Non Standard Measures #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS INVESTOR CONCERNS ON SENIORITY WILL BE ADDRESSED
*DJ Draghi: Will Design Appropriate Modalities for Such Measures Over Coming Weeks #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS ECB MAY TAKE MEASURES TO ENSURE POLICY TRANSMISSION
*DRAGHI SAYS TENSIONS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS AMONG RISKS
*Markets rally Mario Draghi on comments about eurozone. IBEX and MIB up by around 2%
*Draghi: Governing council may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. But no firm commitments
*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Up 1% As Draghi Speaks #wsjeuro
*DJ Draghi: Inflation Likely to Decline Further in 2012, be Below 2% in 2013 #wsjeuro
*So is Draghi strategy to bid down IT+ESP bonds to buy them cheaper?
*Oh, the Italian 10-year yield just tightened several bps
*Draghi talked markets by 5%. Delivered a delay. Huge blow to credibility
*IBEX and MIB rally losing steam as ECB chief Mario Draghi statement continues
*FTSE goes from up 50 to Negative on Draghi NON comments
*DJ Draghi: Sees Significant Progress on Fiscal Consolidation in Recent Yrs #wsjeuro
*DRAGHI SAYS IMPORTANT FOR BANKS TO BOOST THEIR RESILIENCE. Yes. with all those epic earnings
*RT @EKourtali: aaand : Italian, Spanish 10-year yield spreads over German bunds reverse earlier tightening (tradeweb)
*WAAAAAAR RT @djfxtrader: #Germany's Bundesbank to DJ-WSJ: No comment on #ECB Council Decision
*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Slides Into The Red on Draghi Comments; Down 0.2% #wsjeuro
*The Market Rally Has Now Completely Vanished Amid Mario Draghi's Press Conference read.bi/N0Vn3x
*FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB, IBEX now in negative territory as ECB boss Mario Draghi fails to deliver on eurozone action pledge
*Draghi: we have discussed possible reductions in interest rates, unanimous decision this wasn't the time #wsjeuro
*Press conference Mario Draghi: Introductory statement to the press conference via ECB PR bit.ly/Qzrdon
*Draghi: first thing is that govts have to go to the EFSF. As I've said several times the ECB cannot replace govts #wsjeuro
*LIVE: Draghi implies that seniority and EFSF/ESM measures have to happen before the ECB takes action. read.bi/Ncwtuj
*Draghi: ECB may undertake outright open market intervention of a size adequate to reach its objectives #wsjeuro
*"Many of the details [of seniority and EFSF use] will be worked out by the [ECB]" in the coming weeks. read.bi/NLo06l
*ITA +20bps SPA +10bps since Draghi started
*Draghi: the effort will be focused on the shorter part of the yield curve #wsjeuro
*"This effort is going to be focused on the shorter part of the yield curve...which will introduce discipline on the longer part." -Draghi
*DJ Draghi: This Effort is Very Different from Previous Bond-Buying Program #wsjeuro
*Markets not happy. CAC-40 turned negative having been up 1.2% earlier in #Draghi's press conference. #wsjeuro
*"I'm a little surprised by the amount of attention this received in recent press." -Draghi on saying no to ESM bank license. "Not up to us."
*The current design of the ESM does not allow to be recognized as a suitable counterparty. (for ECB repo) -Draghi
*Oh man the Spanish 10-year did not like that ESM remark. Nor Italy.
*Euro sinking like a stone. Down 200 pips since peak at start of press conference.
*SPANISH TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD 14 BPS LOWER AT 4.80%
*Euro /Dollar breaks 1.2200
*Meanwhile... Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 5.934%
*EURO EXTENDS DECLINE AGAINST YEN; WEAKENS 0.5% TO 95.42
*Markit iTraxx Europe already widened 5bps since start of Draghi speech - now at 159.5bps
*Draghi: You shouldn't assume we will or will not sterilize SMP purchases. The committees will have to tell us what is right.
*Draghi: Endorsement to do whatever it takes to preserve euro has been unanimous, but clear Mr Weidmann, BuBa have reservations #wsjeuro
*Spain CDS already 22bps wider at 560bps
*Spain's IBEX35 share index now down by almost 5% after ECB chief Mario Draghi failed to deliver on his eurozone action pledge.
*Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.00%
*FTSE MIB -2.44%
*FTSE MIB -3.00% -- Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.055% -- ITALY 10 - GERMANY 10 SPREAD 473bps
*IT GETS WORSE: US Futures sliding harder after Mario Draghi flop read.bi/NLpsFS
*Draghi: Even if we were ready to act now, there are not grounds to do so bit.ly/QzAPzq
*Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.129%
*Spanish stock market has plunged 600 points in last few minutes, now down 5% pic.twitter.com/JHQZDAtl
*Draghi on whether ECB willing 2 buy private sector assets - "no reason to be specific on what other options are" - eh, left it open?
*DJ Draghi: Statement on Bond Buys Wasn't a Decision, it was Guidance #wsjeuro
*Draghi stresses bond-buying language: "MAY DECIDE" if conditions are met #wsjeuro
*Italy 10-Yr Erases Gains, Yield Rises 23bps to 6.16%
*EMU epitaph: "I want to stress the ECB remains the guardian of price stability and that remains its mandate." - Draghi.
*Bond market to Draghi: If you'd like to buy bonds, we'll make them cheaper for you... bit.ly/QzLfPG
*RT @edwardnh: Draghi has lost all credibility now. The ECB is going to do nothing. Watch yields rise.
*Draghi: it is pointless to go short the Euro. Well, if you went short the euro when Draghi started speaking you are up 200 pips
*Draghi: "It's pointless to go short on the euro because the euro will stay." The first point hardly implies the second.
*Trichet: "Speculating on Greece defaulting is a certain way of losing out" July 27, 2011. And then... bit.ly/NVWP6b
*FTSE MIB -3.17%
... and some more
*Spanish 10s hit 7% bit.ly/QA24Ks
*Priceless! RT @FGoria: S&P: Portugal 'BB/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative On Exposure To Spain
No comments:
Post a Comment