In the previous post I looked at the headline Live Register stats for April. Here, let's take a look at the sub-trends.
Last 3 months average is now running at 1.89% increase on previous 3 months, and 3.33% rise y/y.
Now, for Live Register breakdown by nationality:
In April 2012, 77,015 non-Irish nationals were on the Live Register, down 1,065 from march 2012 (-1.36%) and down 508 (-0.66%) y/y. In March 2012, y/y decline was 514 (-0.65%). Since series is not adjusted for seasonal variation, it is worth looking at 3mo averages. 3mo average through April 2012 was up 1.72% on 3mo average through January 2012, but down 0.61% on same period 2011. The trend for non-nationals is therefore practically flat.
There were 352,986 nationals on the Live Register in April 2012, representing a decline of 2,988 on March (-0.84%) and a drop of 9,062 y/y (-2.50%). This compares to a y/y decline of 6,625 (-1.83%) in March 2012. 3mo through April 2012 average was down 0.41% compared to 3mo through January 2012 and declined 1.85% y/y. So the series are showing stronger downward momentum, but still a flat, albeit volatile trend. Chart above clearly shows the seasonality pattern and the flat trend.
The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in April 2012 was 184,053, up 14,633 y/y and down 412 m/m. This is not seasonally adjusted. Per CSO: "The number of male long term claimants increased by 7,744 (+6.2%) in the year to April 2012, while the comparable increase for females was 6,889 (+15.4%) giving an overall annual increase of 14,633 (+8.6%) in the number of long term claimants.
Numbers of those in casual and part-time employment declined 274 to 88,442 in April 2012. Year on year the number is up 2,848 (+3.33%), compared to y/y change to March 2012 of +2,561 (+2.97%) - marking a slight deterioration of the trend. Overall, as chart below shows, things are running with a slightly upward trend. Again, you can opt to interpret part-time and casual employment as a good thing, or as a bad thing - glass half-full or half-empty, but generally, in my view, absent robust new jobs creation, this speaks more of a hidden unemployment, rather than of nascent entrepreneurship or a pick-up in some hiring activity.
Last 3 months average is now running at 1.89% increase on previous 3 months, and 3.33% rise y/y.
Now, for Live Register breakdown by nationality:
In April 2012, 77,015 non-Irish nationals were on the Live Register, down 1,065 from march 2012 (-1.36%) and down 508 (-0.66%) y/y. In March 2012, y/y decline was 514 (-0.65%). Since series is not adjusted for seasonal variation, it is worth looking at 3mo averages. 3mo average through April 2012 was up 1.72% on 3mo average through January 2012, but down 0.61% on same period 2011. The trend for non-nationals is therefore practically flat.
There were 352,986 nationals on the Live Register in April 2012, representing a decline of 2,988 on March (-0.84%) and a drop of 9,062 y/y (-2.50%). This compares to a y/y decline of 6,625 (-1.83%) in March 2012. 3mo through April 2012 average was down 0.41% compared to 3mo through January 2012 and declined 1.85% y/y. So the series are showing stronger downward momentum, but still a flat, albeit volatile trend. Chart above clearly shows the seasonality pattern and the flat trend.
April 2012 non-Irish nationals accounted for 17.91% of the total number of persons on the Live Register - an increase from 17.64% a year ago, but down from 17.99% in March 2012.
Stay tuned for occupational analysis of the LR in a subsequent post.
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